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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    hawkwing wrote: »
    Dry and cold it says from the 24th till 2020,would settle for that at this stage:)

    the models have been all over the place over the past week with a different outcome every update, hopefully now it will be more consistant and we can get to enjoy fine, settled and frosty weather. We could all do with a prolonged break from the relentless rain/Atlantic, it outstayed it's welcome a long time ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    gfs 18z would make for a cold christmas week,is this the a start of a change

    I never trust the 18Z GFS but hopefully it’s onto something


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Earlier in the week there had been signs of a LP / Storm coming close to Ireland. This stayed much lower to the S and today is expected to bring strong winds to N Portugal, N Spain and into W France through the Bay of Biscay. Set to produce strong winds in the Med later especially around Corsica and Sardinia.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very unusual to see wind charts for Spain! I'll keep an eye on the sea conditions with the Fuengirola webcam. Usually in situations like this, they end up with rain and when it rains there it's usually biblical. They had a few nasty storms and flooding on the costa last winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Gonzo wrote: »
    very unusual to see wind charts for Spain! I'll keep an eye on the sea conditions with the Fuengirola webcam. Usually in situations like this, they end up with rain and when it rains there it's usually biblical. They had a few nasty storms and flooding on the costa last winter.

    Yes, this one is going to cause problems along a large area of northern Iberia and France. It will then set up a Genoa trough that will bring very strong Maestrale northwesterly to the central Med. I've experienced numerous summer maestrali in northwest Sardinia but a winter one is pretty strong by all accounts.

    Note that the isobar spacing below for more southern latitudes is different to what we're used to at our latitude. A wider spacing there gives the same speed as a narrower spacing up here (as shown in the windscale inset).

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Note that the isobar spacing below for more southern latitudes is different to what we're used to at our latitude. A wider spacing there gives the same speed as a narrower spacing up here [/quote]

    Every day is a school day. Interesting


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking cooler again on the ECM 12Z . Showing frontal activity associated with a LP move up the country into cold air early on Stephens morning . Currently showing a big dump of sleet and snow in parts of the southern half of the country ( and rain ! ). But anybody following the charts lately will know that they have been all over the place. But the ECM has been showing the cold air mass as becoming a feature for a few runs now . Something to watch :)


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON showing a different set up with a LP running up off the W coast in far less cold air.

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    GFS similar to ECM with arrival of rainfall but air mass not as cold late Weds into Thurs. Is showing the Easterlies though.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has made a big switch more in line with the other models bringing that LP up off the Western coasts but keeping the strongest winds off the coast for the moment anyway. Not as much precipitation also and has lost the snow for the Southern half of the country, showing wintry precipitation the W but very mixed mid level and upper air charts . As reflected by the forecasts big uncertainty with Weds/ Thurs weather at this stage. We can expect more changes.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    This storm for Christmas night is nudging ever closer to the South West!! Just a watch for the moment but the trend by this evenings Icon and Gfs is to ramp it up.
    Also worth noting high tides will coincide for the 26th


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big difference between the models still. ICON looks the strongest by far but bringing the system in much earlier than the others.

    ECM, GFS and UKMO has the nearest grouping of positions , the ECM brings the center in over us , keeping the strongest winds off the S.

    ARPEGE 12Z has the system much further S with the least effect on us.

    Currently the main cluster of models probably showing some coastal counties maybe reaching yellow warning, ICON possibly a bit higher but ICON is the outsider here.

    The Center not looking too low atm at an avg of about 988 hPa at it's lowest near Ireland and filling fairly quickly on it's approach.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Majority of the models keep the LP system on Weds/ Thurs well off the W coast, a difference yet but not showing very strong winds at this stage. ARPEE brings it in over the S.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Widespread frost in the morning. Icy road conditions in places. Winds on Weds look just below Yellow warning levels generally apart from the risk of a higher gust on exposed coasts.

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    Winds building from the SW from late afternoon. Getting increasingly milder from the S , mild night Weds into Thurs morning.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    A low has formed along that cold front east of the Azores this morning, and it wasn't forecasted in yesterday's forecast (2nd chart). That could bring a different scenario tonight, with possible enhancement to rainfall levels and stronger winds now further east.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    In general staying on the milder side over the next 5 days or so.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mild days coming up apart from around next Tuesday, milder again then on Weds.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    looks mild right up to January 10th, hopefully we will see some interesting changes next week but I've a feeling we still have our work cut out for us to shut down the Atlantic any time soon.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next Sunday looks incredibly mild with +10 to +12 uppers over Ireland all the way back from the central Atlantic/Azores/Canary Islands. Could easily get up to 14C or even 15C if there was spells of sunshine.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    More and more showing us in a predominately SW/ly mild airflow, Looking through the charts showing any strong winds mainly staying off the W and NW coasts, bit windy along the coast at times but nothing out of the ordinary. One feature showing up is the sign of of low rainfall for the next 5 days. Mist and drizzle and some light rain might be evident at times especially along Atlantic coasts but amounts small. Temperatures on Sunday as Gonzo said looking very mild.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Europe has been so mild this winter. Likes of Germany Poland have been up around +10 degrees. Even parts of Scandinavia have been consistently over 0 most of the winter. Really bizarre how mild the continent is. If that’s the case then Ireland and UK have no hope


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Europe has been so mild this winter. Likes of Germany Poland have been up around +10 degrees. Even parts of Scandinavia have been consistently over 0 most of the winter. Really bizarre how mild the continent is. If that’s the case then Ireland and UK have no hope

    yep very little snow anywhere in Europe over the next week or two. Best chance of seeing some wintryness over the next 2 weeks would appear to be in Greece or Turkey yet again. Scandinavia and eastern Europe may start to cool down mid January, while remaining mild over western Europe.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    Sad state of affairs. February could well be the month when Europe gets icy

    The eastern half of Europe will probably ice up. There may be the occassional close flirting with the eastern UK and a few 24 hour quick shot northerlies for us. Having said that there has been winters before with Atlantic driven muck all the way from November to January and then February strikes with white gold magic. Hopefully that will happen this year. I'm probably going to take a break from the charts over the next few days then come back after new years day with hopefully some promising looking patterns to look forward to towards the end of January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    The amount of cloud in Cork is miserable. There has been no sun at all, of any description, for days.

    And tomorrow wont be much better for you, however other parts of the country will experience a "spring like" day tomorrow. Mild and windy with a much higher cloud base allowing some sunny spells through. Get out and enjoy it.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking a bit windier now from late Weds night in the W, initially SW'ly and veering W'ly, into early Thurs morning in Connacht and Ulster and continuing blustery through the day, possibly another windy spell later Thurs evening in the W.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON just out with the 18Z looking quite strong. Bit to go yet to know for sure could row back on this a bit ?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models eased of on wind speed on earlier runs but back up slightly again, not as high as yesterday. Looks like the second front tomorrow evening could be the windiest part of the day. On average probably still under yellow warning leve for the moment anyway but still a strong steady airflow gusting 60 to 70 km/h overland, bit higher on coasts

    Winds look like coming from a Southerly direction until the afternoon, veering SW'ly and looks like veering sharply to NW as the front goes through before backing again to the W into Fri morning.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has eased off the wind speed late Weds into Thurs. Not showing it reaching yellow warning level on this run. Other models a bit higher but nothing out of the ordinary. Fresh across the country and blustery on the coasts. ECM has increased the predicted rainfall a bit.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big storm out in the Atlantic, filling as it gets closer to Ireland, our weather over the next day or so will be from fronts associated with this system.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Big storm out in the Atlantic, filling as it gets closer to Ireland, our weather over the next day or so will be from fronts associated with this system.

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    Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    sideswipe wrote: »
    Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.

    Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?


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This discussion has been closed.
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