Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

Yep, those dark circles often appear between 30W and 10W on Atlantic lows, something I've been researching because I have the hunch they are connected to geomagnetic field variables. They are features on infra-red rather than visible images where you would see more low-level cloud disguising the features.

When I said 90-100 knots at the Kinsale platform, this translates to 80 knots at the surface. We'll see what the extreme gust readings are, soon enough. The modelling may show the winds and waves heading to Cornwall and Brittany but the storm makes a fairly steady northeast turn while deepening, so take it seriously if you're anywhere near the south coast and for the Irish Sea, all that excess water has to go somewhere, there again, expect some very large swells and waves.

By the time the 00z models come in, there will only be a few hours of preparation time but we may have a new perspective on this storm by morning. Of course I'll be around all night, it is only supper time here.

Once again, I have drawn up a map indicating expected alert levels for tonight's approaching storm.



The south coast will see wind gusts to 130 km/hr and a solid level 2 to borderline level 3 for winds, but more of a potential level 3 for local flooding at the evening high tides. Some heavy rainfalls will add to this flood potential around Cork and Waterford.

The inland south and east coast will be mostly in a level 2 wind and rainfall situation as well as (for the east coast and some parts of the west coast) a level 2 status for coastal flooding although this could increase to level 3 in a few locations, your local flood authorities will of course be your best guide on this, but would be on high alert near the Wicklow and Dublin-Meath coasts at the overnight high tides.

Most of the central to northern regions will barely make it into level 1 wind speeds, with part of that risk coming in a second phase of the storm later on Wednesday, but rainfalls could be a solid level 1 to isolated level 2 here.

Marine areas off the south coast could see force 12 (hurricane) conditions by late afternoon and evening, with force 9-10 likely spreading into the Irish Sea. Western marine areas will actually be at their worst early in the event and will see a reduction in winds towards evening if the low tracks as expected into west Munster and northeastward. I am speculating that the offshore Kinsale energy platform could record gusts in excess of 85 knots around 6 p.m. to midnight, perhaps even into the 90s. This would signal coastal gusts of about 70-80 knots at locations such as Sherkin Island, Roches Point and 50-60 knots at some inland stations but 60-70 knots at more exposed inland locations, and be alert for 80-100 knot gusts on summits of most mountains in Ireland with the higher values likely in the southeast. Anyone venturing above 500m today without a high level of protection should confine their excursions to the hours before 1 p.m. when very strong winds can be expected to begin over exposed areas.

Some thunderstorms may be embedded in the large area of moderate to heavy rain moving inland during the afternoon and early evening, most likely to see lightning would be the southeastern counties and also around Donegal Bay.