Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 02-04-2019 11:30am

lawred2 wrote: »

Say what now?

I obviously missed where the options on this confirmatory referendum were already defined...

If those are the options then it's no wonder Tories are so concerned..

They're not already defined. I'm hypothesising that the outcome of the indicative vote process could be aproval for:

- May's WA plus a revised and softer Pol Dec, conditional on

- approval of this package in a binary referendum in which the other option would be Remain.

As already pointed out, there are risks for both Labour and the SNP in agreeing to this, and both would have to be willing to compromise. The SNP might end up with Brexit, which they don't want, on terms which fail to preserve FoM, which they also don't want. The Labour party might end up with no Brexit, whcih they don't want.

But they're both opposition parties, and they have an opportunity to take control here, humiliating and fracturing the Tories and getting at least a sporting chance of the Brexit outcome they want, and the certainty of avoiding no-deal which they both very much don't want, so that's gotta be attractive.

Hurrache · 02-04-2019 11:32am

Tell me how wrote: »

There is an interesting programme on a key part of all this on BBC 4 tomorrow night at 21:00

Link

https://twitter.com/earlofantrim17/status/1112847617946476545

It was on last week too, it's pretty decent, albeit doesn't go into a massive amount of detail and fine print, but that's not what the program is about.

FrancieBrady · 02-04-2019 11:35am

looksee wrote: »

Sinn Fein person (I was driving and can't recall who it was) being interviewed on RTE yesterday said that having a hard border would be 'dangerous'. It sounded more like a threat than an opinion, but it wasn't clear who was being threatened.

SF made a threat?

Where is the threat in repeating what the PSNI say and many other commentators and stakeholders say as well - are they 'threatening' something too?

LeinsterDub · 02-04-2019 11:35am

looksee wrote: »

Sinn Fein person (I was driving and can't recall who it was) being interviewed on RTE yesterday said that having a hard border would be 'dangerous'. It sounded more like a threat than an opinion, but it wasn't clear who was being threatened.

This says more about you than the SF person. Numerous people for across the entire political spectrum have indicated that a hard border could become dangerous to those who'd have to enforce it.

Shelga · 02-04-2019 11:39am

Peregrinus wrote: »

If parliament can dictate one of the options on the ballot, it can dictate the other. You are correct that Parliament's decision would have to be very prescriptive, but I think at this stage Parliament understands that very well.

There's a weakness with the indicative vote process, which is that it's not binding. No matter what Parliament approves in an indicative vote, May can simply decline to go to the EU and ask for a long extension to implement it. And, if May does that, as far as I can see it's game over.

So everything crucially depends on May not regarding no-deal as an acceptable outcome.

If she regards it as an acceptable outcome, then it's game over even now; regardless of the outcome of the indicative vote process, May will ignore it and no-deal will ensue.

If she doesn't, then if May has to choose between:

- (a) go to the EU and ask for an extension to implement a plan approved by Parliament, which is May's WA plus a political declaration oriented towards a customs union or single market or both, coupled with a confirmatory referendum, or

- (b) no-deal

she'll choose (a).

You think May will choose No Deal over a long extension to facilitate something else?

That’s terrifying. Incredible times we are living through.

woohoo!!! · 02-04-2019 11:41am

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Exactly. Do we honestly think that MP's would have voted the same if Sinn Fein had been there?

There is no way that the Conservative and Unionist Party propped up by the Democratic Unionist Party would have allowed Sinn Fein to dictate the UK's exit from the EU.

If Sinn Fein REALLY wanted to make a difference they would go through the motions of taking the oath of allegiance while crossing thier fingers.
But no they want to do nothing even in Stormont and pretend to really want an Irish language act.
I think Sinn Fein really missed a trick as regards Brexit they could have entered the commons. Then they could be as obstructionist as they like.

Do you have any idea about how northern nationalists feel about Westminster? They're not in the least bit surprised by how all this is turning out. They are done with Westminster and will not be dictated to by the likes of the DUP over Stormont. They're looking to Dublin and Brussels to advance their interests.

But the most salient point is, SF entering HoC will be a propaganda coup to DUP, ERG and the red tops, that Corbyn et al are siding with IRA murderers this ending any notion of a softer Brexit.

The blame for the mess lies entirely with the tories and the DUP.

ancapailldorcha · 02-04-2019 11:54am

Posts deleted. Serious discussion only please.

First Up · 02-04-2019 12:15pm

mikep wrote:

Thinking about the hard border, I heard someone from Dublin port on the radio saying they had infrastructure in place for inspections etc including space for extra storage if required. One can assume that the same is happening in Cork and Rosslare.

The Irish ports serving EU ports are well set up. Nothing will get on a ferry to the EU unless it is EU country of origin compliant. Anything that isn't will be processed as an Import into the EU before it is allowed on.

Northern Irish freight can continue to use Dublin, Rosslare and Cork ports to access the continent but it will be processed seperately. A lorry park is being opened near Dublin airport as part of this.

There may be some slippage for local traffic around the Irish border but the integrity of the Single Market will be hermetically sealed.

Professor Moriarty · 02-04-2019 12:24pm

Oliver Letwin now "90% certain" there will be a No Deal exit. Has given up on any more indicative votes. He's either scaremongering or accepting what he sees as the inevitable.

Russman · 02-04-2019 12:27pm

I really don't think we'll see a return to much violence tbh.
I honestly think that since probably 9/11 that terrorism for political aims is a bit of a busted flush (ISIS aside, that's a different issue altogether). Its just soooo 1980s. The tolerance just isn't there in the broader population that they need to hide in.
Plus with modern communication and surveillance, guys would be picked up and whisked off before the even knew what was happening and people are less concerned nowadays if terrorists are treated "harshly" than they might have been in the past.
You'll get the odd headbanger I'm sure, but I just don't see a wholesale return to the bad old days.

If its handled correctly and cleverly, it'll only need to be a border for the length of time it takes the UK to come to their senses, and I'm sure with the right bureaucracy and planning/tendering requirements etc we could easily string it out for a few months before any infrastructure would go up.

gormdubhgorm · 02-04-2019 12:43pm

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Do you have any idea about how northern nationalists feel about Westminster? They're not in the least bit surprised by how all this is turning out. They are done with Westminster and will not be dictated to by the likes of the DUP over Stormont. They're looking to Dublin and Brussels to advance their interests.

But the most salient point is, SF entering HoC will be a propaganda coup to DUP, ERG and the red tops, that Corbyn et al are siding with IRA murderers this ending any notion of a softer Brexit.

The blame for the mess lies entirely with the tories and the DUP.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.

murphaph · 02-04-2019 12:47pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.

I would probably never be able to vote for SF given their links to the IRA in the not so recent past but they are not responsible for Brexit in the slightest. If they went to the HoC people would vote against whatever way they vote. It wouldn't help at all as it's not a zero sum game.

Thargor · 02-04-2019 12:49pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign

Wow excellent analysis :rolleyes:

BobbyBobberson · 02-04-2019 12:50pm

Sinn Fein are not as responsible for Brexit as the Tories.

prawnsambo · 02-04-2019 12:52pm

First Up wrote: »

The Irish ports serving EU ports are well set up. Nothing will get on a ferry to the EU unless it is EU country of origin compliant. Anything that isn't will be processed as an Import into the EU before it is allowed on.

Northern Irish freight can continue to use Dublin, Rosslare and Cork ports to access the continent but it will be processed seperately. A lorry park is being opened near Dublin airport as part of this.

There may be some slippage for local traffic around the Irish border but the integrity of the Single Market will be hermetically sealed.

I would think that NI freight for the UK mainland could continue as before through Dublin port as well. Would just need to put a customs seal on it at point of despatch and carry on as TIR freight. The only issue for the hauliers would be the ECMT permits. I imagine many of them are (or have been) setting up south of the border to circumvent that issue.

02-04-2019 12:52pm

I'd honestly be reconsidering my SF vote up north. I don't know the dynamics all that well but I'd want my voice heard.

I don't want SF to go to the Commons. Just talking future.

Shelga · 02-04-2019 1:03pm

If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?

MrFresh · 02-04-2019 1:05pm

Shelga wrote: »

If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?

They're already blaming the EU for punishing them in the negotiations for leaving.

BobbyBobberson · 02-04-2019 1:07pm

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1113037778407829505

My god.

funkey_monkey · 02-04-2019 1:07pm

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1112836458329640960

Why did SNP abstain on the CU option last night?

Interestingly, there seems to be a core number of around 40 Tories who abstained on all votes. Do we know if that number was made up of a consistent core of MPs or if it was various names dropping in and out?

briany · 02-04-2019 1:09pm

Shelga wrote: »

If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?

I don't think Comical Ali would have anything on Nigel Farage, Mark Francois or JRM in terms of bare-faced denial in the event wherever a no-deal Brexit is a disaster, and their followers will likely go along with that.

To be fairly also, if a no-deal Brexit somehow tuebed into a rousing success, I think the levels of denial on the other side would be similar.

robinph · 02-04-2019 1:13pm

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1112836458329640960

Why did SNP abstain on the CU option last night?

Interestingly, there seems to be a core number of around 40 Tories who abstained on all votes. Do we know if that number was made up of a consistent core of MPs or if it was various names dropping in and out?

That would be the cabinet who were told not to participate.

funkey_monkey · 02-04-2019 1:17pm

robinph wrote: »

That would be the cabinet who were told not to participate.

Yes - forgot about that.

https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

That would total 23 ministers, plus 6 hangers-on = 29. So, about 10 regular Tory MPs abstained.

02-04-2019 1:17pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Oliver Letwin now "90% certain" there will be a No Deal exit. Has given up on any more indicative votes. He's either scaremongering or accepting what he sees as the inevitable.

Yep, Beth Rigby reporting this. Mood is 'grim' apparently.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113033361373782021

marno21 · 02-04-2019 1:17pm

Shelga wrote: »

If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?

They will blame the EU and a whole host of others and the violent rhetoric and division will get worse. Given the volume of people who support a no deal Brexit it seems these people will believe anything

It really has been an exercise in mass disinformation and brainwashing. The damage is already done at this point. It's sad that we are so caught up in it. If it was on the other side of the world we'd be laughing

PropJoe10 · 02-04-2019 1:18pm

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1113037778407829505

My god.

Of course she would. She sees it as her binding moral duty to deliver Brexit, no matter what the cost. There is no good solution to any of this shambles.

joe40 · 02-04-2019 1:24pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.

The only way that SinnFein would be able to influence the HoC to support any deal would be for them to publicly and vociferously back a "no deal" so that they could then say they will pursue a border poll.
(obviously half joking here)
But the idea that Sinn Fein could go to Westminster and support a deal...
Could you imagine what the DUP and ERG could do with that. Everyone else who supports the same deal would not only be labelled as traitors (already happened to Domininc Grieve) but also IRA sympatheisers.

looksee · 02-04-2019 1:24pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This says more about you than the SF person. Numerous people for across the entire political spectrum have indicated that a hard border could become dangerous to those who'd have to enforce it.

And why would that be?

Leroy42 · 02-04-2019 1:27pm

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Of course she would. She sees it as her binding moral duty to deliver Brexit, no matter what the cost. There is no good solution to any of this shambles.

TBF, it is on the only legacy she can possibly achieve at this stage. Her time as PM will be remembered as totally ineffective, save for Brexit.

So does she leave with the Brexit question put back onto the converoy belt of take the risk that a No Deal won't be as bad as expected. She will be saved from any negative effects regardless, so it is probably worth the risk and she will at least have achieved something.

joe40 · 02-04-2019 1:27pm

looksee wrote: »

And why would that be?

Dissident republicans. Was that a serious question?

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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