Storm Jorge : February 29th

ME are annoying at this stage they have posted the same radar chart at 9.30 that they posted at 6pm below is the one they put up and the current one is below

Looking forward to the chart all day Syran. Thanks, it just confirms all of my bitter gripes.

Just out of interest, what is the worst storm you have experienced in your young lifetime?

nthclare wrote: »

The wind was so strong in Doolin today that you had to face the land to take a breath.

It was the first time in my life I had to turn my back on the ocean and face the land in order to breathe.

I know there was worse storms but bang on 13:35 today the wind was the strongest gust I ever stood in while not in shelter.

There was pebbles blowing in the wind at clahane definitely dangerous and red.

Agreed on that one, I live in Doolin and can confirm. Red was just about justified. I had cattle fed early this morning and stayed in for the duration of the red warning. Yes we have had worse, Darwin still hasn't been beaten in our area but it was still a shocking day. Warning was justified for us anyway.

Just a post-mortem on an interesting storm ...

(a) In general there was a tendency for models to give us over-amped numerical wind guidance. I think the pressure patterns verified quite well but in almost every case the model guidance was a bit strong with the core of strongest winds and this had a knock-on effect in terms of assumptions made about inland penetration. The timing and boundary issues were better handled. Some of the criticism there might be more due to failure to read the detailed discussions and take in the scale of the regional differences expected. This goes to next point ....

(b) once again our storm thread has to deal with a lot of commentary that actually belongs in the Met E forecasts thread. It's not our doing that county by county alerts are the basis for warnings. We routinely stress how these will actually play out, then we get to read (often the same half dozen critics) expounding about how bad the county by county forecast system is. We know this and can't do anything about it from here.

(c) that being said, the extension of the orange wind alerts to south coast and most inland counties was not that well supported even by over-amped numerical guidance. Only Roscommon to Kildare seemed at much risk of getting into that range. So for those who were outside the plausible orange zone, here again, we're stuck with the alerts as issued until or unless we just ignore them and draw up our own maps (then you get critics along the lines of random people on the internet issuing their own warnings). And there's a 10:1 rule at play, for any forecaster with any sort of public following, any error made on the "too weak" side will be ten times bigger as a reputation problem than vice versa. So that probably applies at the pro level too and there's a natural tendency to err on the side of caution.

(d) there were some good outcomes in terms of people avoiding trouble or damage so that's always worth a lot more than ten random whinges about "no storm here."

(e) If you look back and find that you have commented "no storm here" after every storm in every storm thread, then you need to hunt down Graces7 and become her neighbour.

The two heads, Mace and Malin, both reporting 60-knot gusts at 23:00. Donegal Airport 54 knots.

Winds at 19:49.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

We routinely stress how these will actually play out, then we get to read (often the same half dozen critics) expounding about how bad the county by county forecast system is. We know this and can't do anything about it from here.

With the greatest of respect M.T, but maybe those criticisms (of which some are mine) are more than justified. My eyes were really opened in the lead up to 'Ophelia' back in 2017, when red warnings were issued for regions, including this one, that the models clearly suggested beforehand would not need one. I experienced first hand how such warnings effect the most vulnerable of people (as I worked in that capacity at the time) and causes them to needlessly be scared out their wits. Shops and businesses closed, panic buying beforehand.. Thing is, as over-hyped as those warnings for Ophelia were, they still brought stronger winds than today's offering did under a similar red warning. You know and I know and most people on here can understand the nuance of these warnings, but most people outside of this little internet weather hobbiest club who have no interest in daily weather do not, so they place complete trust in these official warnings.

For what it is worth, I posted this 'probability' chart earlier yesterday, and in fairness, it wasn't too far off the mark.




I (or whoever else has access to them) should post these charts more frequently if the need arises from here on in as they are useful for putting progged model output into better perspective.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With the greatest of respect M.T, but maybe those criticisms (of which some are mine) are more than justified. My eyes were really opened in the lead up to 'Ophelia' back in 2017, when red warnings were issued for regions, including this one, that the models clearly suggested beforehand would not need one. I experienced first hand how such warnings effect the most vulnerable of people (as I worked in that capacity at the time) and causes them to needlessly be scared out their wits. Shops and businesses closed, panic buying beforehand.. Thing is, as over-hyped as those warnings for Ophelia were, they still brought stronger winds than today's offering did under a similar red warning. You know and I know and most people on here can understand the nuance of these warnings, but most people outside of this little internet weather hobbiest club who have no interest in daily weather do not, so they place complete trust in these official warnings.

I certainly don't disagree, however it's a case of a good proportion of posts in an event thread are complaining/bickering about the warning, then rinse and repeat the exact same arguments every 5 pages.

I certainly think it would be wise here to actively direct this discussion to its own thread as it's quite a topical subject here and creates a significant number of posts. Perhaps at the start of every event thread, a link to the warning discussion thread and a note to direct such discussions to that place.

That picture was from https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18270608.storm-jorge-rolls-high-winds/

Waves batter Maryport Prom during Storm Ciara as high tide hits. Similar scenes were seen across the county Picture: Larraine Degraff

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looking forward to the chart all day Syran. Thanks, it just confirms all of my bitter gripes.

Just out of interest, what is the worst storm you have experienced in your young lifetime?

That would be Kyrill of January 2007. Can't remember it from personal experience myself (shocker right :P ) but Dublin Airport had a max gust of 80 kts (148 km/h). That didn't have the highest daily mean wind speed though as that was 4 February 2011 with 28.8 kts which unlike 2007, I remember well. No notable gusts that day but the sustained winds definitely were noticeable. Fitted right in with that deluge weekend too.

It's as windy tonight in north Donegal as it was for any of the other storms this winter.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

People have a right to complain on a dedicated storm thread when that storm is not what it is sold to be.

But it's the SYSTEM that you've just complained about, not the storm. The MÉ forecast as whole is quite good, but it's the warnings, and how people and media interpret these warnings that seems to be the source of the vast majority of these discussions.

Took these yesterday, Sat 29th about 11.30 am or so. iPhone. Apologies for poor quality. Salthill, bear in mind high tide had passed a few hours before.