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I'm A Celebrity Werewolf - Get Me Out Of Here!!! (February Werewolf Game)

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Comments

  • #1412
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Quickbeam - NRV
    Kitten_K - probably NRV based on peek
    tritium - probably NRV based on peek and evicting wolf
    Barney92 - probably NRV
    Whiplashy - probably a wolf by process of elimination
    Mam of 4 - probably a wolf based on back and forth between Lough and her before eviction
    Green&Red - probably NRV based on Lough shooting him earlier, and letter being a wolf framing device.
    crosstownk - probably a wolf from ISO
    SKeith - probably NRV

    Which leaves three as wolves. Though one of my "probably NRV" is also likely to be the converted one.

    I forgot Lough had shot me

    I’d be interested to hear why you think Whippy is a wolf? I was pretty certain yesterday she was village.

    I would think one of SK or Barney have been converted, both have changed their MO since the conversion


  • #1413
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Quickbeam - NRV
    Kitten_K - probably NRV based on peek
    tritium - probably NRV based on peek and evicting wolf
    Barney92 - probably NRV
    Whiplashy - probably a wolf by process of elimination
    Mam of 4 - probably a wolf based on back and forth between Lough and her before eviction
    Green&Red - probably NRV based on Lough shooting him earlier, and letter being a wolf framing device.
    crosstownk - probably a wolf from ISO
    SKeith - probably NRV

    Which leaves three as wolves. Though one of my "probably NRV" is also likely to be the converted one.


    Kitten wasn't peeked, she won a prize. Its NAI.


  • #1414
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    sKeith wrote: »
    Kitten wasn't peeked, she won a prize. Its NAI.


    Non allignment indicative.

    Nothing about winning a prize means you are good or bad.


    If kitten lies and says trit is bad, who wins that battle?

    She is always saying a good trit is good.
    Especially when trit has a peek in the hand.


  • #1415
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    Kitten wasn't peeked, she won a prize. Its NAI.

    I meant her being the peeker, not the peekee (and giving the - presumably - correct result on Tritium). Plus my ISO makes me think she's village.

    It's just where I stand, as GnR asked for. I could well be wrong of course.


  • #1416
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Green&Red wrote: »
    I forgot Lough had shot me

    I’d be interested to hear why you think Whippy is a wolf? I was pretty certain yesterday she was village.

    I would think one of SK or Barney have been converted, both have changed their MO since the conversion

    As I said, by process of elimination as I think others are more likely to be village and I know I am.


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  • #1417
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Whiplashy wrote: »
    I know I’m only a noob, but is it really likely me and Mam are both wolves, since I’ve not exactly been quiet about my belief that she is one?

    If one was on the wolf team and the other the SK you could.


  • #1418
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    I meant her being the peeker, not the peekee (and giving the - presumably - correct result on Tritium). Plus my ISO makes me think she's village.

    It's just where I stand, as GnR asked for. I could well be wrong of course.


    Did you ISO loughc? If so, link me up.


  • #1419
    Whiplashy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,097 ✭✭✭Whiplashy


    quickbeam wrote: »
    If one was on the wolf team and the other the SK you could.

    I hadn’t thought of that, so fair point. I’m not either by the way, but fair point.


  • #1420
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    @GnR, said during my ISO of Lough that you'd be cleared if he turned wolf. Forgot till I read back that that's only for wolf though, you could also still be the SK.

    @sKeith, as requested. Also did ISO on Cross and Kitten, but Lough's was the first one.
    Green&Red wrote: »
    I forgot Lough had shot me
    quickbeam wrote: »
    I'm actually starting to come around to GnR. These last two peeks, and Whippy's lend credence to no seer, but all powers by prizes, as I supposed. In which case, that mystery prize that nobody every claimed (yesterday, 11:10) was probably a wolf who sent a letter to stir up the sh!t, rather than a genuine seer using that method for revealing their peeks.

    My first ISO done, started with Lough for no particular reason (he was the last one who posted when I started). A lot of fluff. A lot of defending himself against accusations. Not too much actual leg-work and investigative work in there. I would say that if GnR does come out wolf then it would probably clear Lough as he took the shot on him (unless he somehow knew his was going to be blank). Of being wolf at least if not of being SK.

    Here's my notes:
    Conflict with sKeith
    Likes Bounty for CL, 18 minutes later Bounty is munched
    Trit "solid" on him
    Defends thanking posts
    Gives reads on four players (GnR, Mam, Trit, Cross) - weird only them when he also mentions Kitten, and surely should have read on Trit and sK consideing they do on him
    Defensive re his post on number of players per team
    Says he'll vote for Molly for CL (later does)
    FFA: Barney, sKeith, Yoss
    Defends winner of first prize not coming out and says it probably was a nothing prize (turned out to be GnR having eviction immunity)
    Does not want Whippy to reveal result of his peek
    FFA: GnR, Yoss, Cross - only Yoss the same as previous day's
    Used second shot (blank) on GnR

    Conclusion: middling, could be a wolf, but not hugely sold on it yet.


  • #1421
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    @GnR, said during my ISO of Lough that you'd be cleared if he turned wolf. Forgot till I read back that that's only for wolf though, you could also still be the SK.

    @sKeith, as requested. Also did ISO on Cross and Kitten, but Lough's was the first one.


    thanks, i was using loughc when searching, you only had lough, i should have dropped the c.


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  • #1422
    kitten_k
    Registered Users Posts: 6,046 ✭✭✭kitten_k


    Hey have requested my prize but haven’t received anything from the mods yet. Will let you know when I do.


  • #1423
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Green&Red wrote: »
    I forgot Lough had shot me

    I’d be interested to hear why you think Whippy is a wolf? I was pretty certain yesterday she was village.

    I would think one of SK or Barney have been converted, both have changed their MO since the conversion
    quickbeam wrote: »
    @GnR, said during my ISO of Lough that you'd be cleared if he turned wolf. Forgot till I read back that that's only for wolf though, you could also still be the SK.

    @sKeith, as requested. Also did ISO on Cross and Kitten, but Lough's was the first one.


    Conversion took place after the results showed the shot failed.


  • #1424
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    Green&Red wrote: »
    I forgot Lough had shot me

    I’d be interested to hear why you think Whippy is a wolf? I was pretty certain yesterday she was village.

    I would think one of SK or Barney have been converted, both have changed their MO since the conversion

    How has my MO changed since the conversion?


  • #1425
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    Fair play to you by the way trit. Glad I didn't take one of your lives yesterday now.


  • #1426
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    Radio silence


  • #1427
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    My quick thoughts at this stage -

    Quickbeam - NRV - I think
    Kitten_K - I'd like to think goodie but not sure, they've been quite open with peeks.
    tritium - goodie
    Barney92 - goodie
    Whiplashy - possibly a wolf
    Mam of 4 - don't think they are a wolf based on interaction with Lough at the end, I don't think Lough would do that to a teammate - potentially SK but I doubt it
    Green&Red - potentially a wolf, the letter seems so blatantly fake that perhaps it's a glorious double bluff from the wolves and green is actually a wolf
    crosstownk - I've not been sure on cross all game - potential SK
    SKeith - probably good

    If I was going to convert someone it would have been SK or QB I reckon. Neither are clear but seem to be amongst most people's somewhat clear leans.


  • #1428
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    Green&Red wrote: »
    Radio silence

    Is that in response to me?


  • #1429
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    so, using process of elimination.

    serial killer still alive and 2 or 3 wolves, so looking for 2 or 3 origionals and 1 convert.

    Barney92 - gave trit a prize, whip said they are good. leaning good.
    crosstownk - leaning bad, either teamed with lough or pocketing lough with CL vote
    Green&Red - looks to have teamed up with kitten since conversion
    kitten_k - leaning bad.
    Mam of 4 - leaning good mainly for saying the notes content was nonsense and a distraction, which i believe it was.
    quickbeam - leaning good, even though kitty bias.
    Whiplashy - got a prize, said barney is good, doesn't make them good.

    over the line good from my POV
    tritium - good
    sKeith - good


    if two bad and convert,

    cross kittten and gnr, and if gnr is teamed with kitten, then cross is most likely sk.

    if whipy bad and peeks teammate barney as good, maybe qb converted, but no teaming of kitty and gnr here. cross is again sk in this scenario.


    teamings i have are
    kitten & gnr
    whip & barney
    cross and lough



    Final Vote Count
    Duffman (3) – Mick Jagger, Duffman, Tritium
    Skeith (2) – Skeith, Strawberry Milkshake
    Green & Red (2) – Green & Red, Whiplashy
    LoughC (2) – Mam of 4, crosstownk
    Molly (2) – Molly, loughC
    Fixxer (1)– Fixxer
    Mam of 4 (1) – Liz
    Tritium (1)- y0ssar1an22
    Strawberry Milkeshake (1) – Barney
    Quickbeam (1)- Quickbeam

    How about mam cross loughc?
    If loughc votes for himself he could have had that CL.
    Why did he move to molly?
    Mollyb60 wrote: »
    I won't be voting for keith tonight in the vote. Mostly because I think he'd lose his mind with power and go properly crazy.

    At the moment though, I don't really have a better option for CL so I'll just be sticking in a temp vote for myself.
    crosstownk wrote: »
    I think I'll vote for LoughC for CL.

    He seems to be genuine and not panicking when he's accused. Maybe he's a good wolf but for now I think he's a villager. It could transpire that it's too early in the game to vote for him but that could probably be said of any player.
    Loughc wrote: »
    Sensible post, you get my vote too.
    He moved to molly from GnR.


    CL votes analysis sucks.

    Oh, found my earlier breakdown..
    sKeith wrote: »
    So,

    2) mick & trit trust duff
    2) Mam & cross trust lough
    1) SM trusts me
    1) whiplashy trusts G&R
    1) lough trusts molly
    1) liz trusts mam
    1) yoss trusts trit
    1) barney trusts SM


    What a weird dynamic we have.

    okay, ffas.
    quickbeam wrote: »
    Mine, if anyone wants to check:

    fixxxer|y0ssar1an22|Green&Red||208
    tritium|crosstownk|LoughC||312
    duffman13|fixxxer|Green&Red|crosstownk|376 & 463
    Strawberry Milkshake|Mam of 4|MicksJaguar||441
    Whiplashy|fixxxer|Mam of 4||443
    Quickbeam|fixxxer|crosstownk|Barney92|447
    LoughC|Barney92|SKeith|y0ssar1an22|448
    Green&Red|crosstownk|Mam of 4|MicksJaguar|449
    crosstownk|SKeith|Green&Red||457
    MicksJaguar|Strawberry Milkshake|SKeith||459
    SKeith|LoughC|Whiplashy|fixxxer|469
    Mam of 4|Green&Red|JP Liz V1||477
    JP Liz V1|SKeith|LoughC|Mam of 4|482

    crosstownk|4
    fixxxer|4
    Mam of 4|4
    SKeith|4
    Green&Red|4
    LoughC|3
    y0ssar1an22|2
    Barney92|2
    MicksJaguar|2
    Strawberry Milkshake|1
    Whiplashy|1
    JP Liz V1|1

    No barney ffa but loughc ffa's barney, lets go find that.
    Loughc wrote: »
    #FFA1

    1) Barney92 - Spent alot of today mis-reading and not really adding much, could be an off day but something seems off.

    2) sKeith - Again either a bored NRV or a Baddie, not sure, but either way not helping village only distracting.

    3) Yoss - Not participating, could be a low lying wolf, either way no loss if leaves camp.

    Does a teammate write that? I don't think so.

    So, for whip & barney teaming, they have to be teammates with loughc and sulli.

    peek barney as good, then barney makes up a story about a letter and gnr is bad.

    then what is the missing prize?

    Nah, i think the letter was a prize. whats that easiest solution thing, edward swisor hand or.. google here i come, occum razor..

    Next...
    or back, i was on cross and lough team before seqway,
    cross of the opinion barney was the convert, if he wasn't always a wolf
    After BH death #153
    cross and loughc interact. #154 #155.
    Then not again until #1130 #1131 #1136
    next interaction #1246 #1250 loughc adds cross to suspicion list. #1253 #1255 #1257
    This is the last and longest interaction.
    Then trit reveals loughc peek instead of his and
    crosstownk wrote: »
    CL vote changed to Trit. I hope he's not bullsh1tting us but there's only one way to find out.

    Also, in case I don't get back in time:

    #FFA
    1. LoughC

    Fingers crossed.

    They could be teammates.

    It's stronger than anything else i have.


  • #1430
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    So when this game started they way people, including himself, were talking about SKeith I thought well this fella must be **** hot. Someone actually said we’re better off holding his CL until later in the game cause it’ll be more use. I thought this lad must have the ****in sight or something

    Then you post the above accusing me of being on a team with Kitten. Literally nobody has ever been as supportive as I was of Kitten, for the reason that if she was a wolf we were finished anyway. And then she confirms Trit is a villager who comes through with a wolf, which in my book clears her too. Wolves aren’t this vocal in supporting people who catch wolves.

    Let’s be clear I’m not accusing you of being a wolf, I’m just saying you’re really, really, really bad at spotting wolves.

    After this game if anyone asks if you play werewolf say “no, no i can’t because I’m wolf blind, it’s a degenerative disease. It’s hereditary, all future generations of SKeiths are out too


  • #1431
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Forum mod hat:

    Green&Red, watch it. Read the rule on abuse again and apologize please.

    We don't bring family, past present or future, into games.


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  • #1432
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,411 ✭✭✭tritium


    Morning all

    So, things are a little better after yesterday, but only a little better. We got a wolf, which is good.

    Unfortunately we’re reaching a point where the risk of a wolf getting CL is pretty high. 9 left at the moment, 7 after this mornings kills means we likely have 3 baddies out of 7 so the odds are beginning to move against us.

    Depending on whether the wolves know who the sk is we could be a mislynch away from losing, so we don’t have any room for mistakes.

    For the sk if you’re reading that also means you’re in a bit of a spot, since to win you need to turn on the wolves.

    First step today should be to revisit loughc I think and figure out if there’s anything there that’s useful.


  • #1433
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    Pter wrote: »
    Forum mod hat:

    Green&Red, watch it. Read the rule on abuse again and apologize please.

    We don't bring family, past present or future, into games.

    Sorry about that SKeith


  • #1434
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Crosstownk has been shot with a paintball gun and producers have removed him from the jungle. He (Conor McGregor) was an NRV.


  • #1435
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    Pter wrote: »
    Crosstownk has been shot with a paintball gun and producers have removed him from the jungle. He (Conor McGregor) was an NRV.

    Was that the prize from last nite?


  • #1436
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Morning all. I'm trying to get my head around how many wolves there are.

    We have definitely a minimum of one: one who put the kill order in yesterday and one who got converted, but one died. Highly unlikely it's just one though.

    So, two or three? They've currently a net loss of one wolf (-Sully, -Lough, +convertee), so it all depends on how many they started with. Three seems too low a number. If there were two wolf teams I'd could see it being three, but with just one, I reckon they'd have got four (surely no more than that???), so we've 3 left?

    In which case:
    Village / Wolves / SK = 5 / 3 / 1

    Best case scenario is they take out each other this morning, so: 5 / 2 / 0. If that happens and we lynch a wolf tonight then it'l be 5 / 1 / 0, with just one kill the following morning, to make it 4 / 1 / 0. A 20% chance of lynching the wolf then. Though plenty of other variables in there too, including who is CL at the time and can they be trusted!

    Worst case scenario is they take out two of us, so 3 / 3 / 1. Can we even come back from that? Lynch SK = 3 / 3 / 0 = Wolf Victory. Lynch Wolf = 3 / 2 / 1, but then we'll have two kills in the morning. If wolves munch the SK and SK munches a villager it's 2 / 2 / 0 and Wolf Victory again. If wolves munch the SK and SK munches a wolf, then it's 3 / 1 / 0, and we'd have a 25% chance of lynching the final wolf then. But we'd need a lot of good luck to get there.


  • #1437
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Oh wow :(. Would have definitely had him as a wolf. My maths needs rejigging then after that. Fvck!!


  • #1438
    kitten_k
    Registered Users Posts: 6,046 ✭✭✭kitten_k


    Sorry guys only seen the prize PM this morning and don’t have time before munch to be here as have a meeting until 10.30.

    I went for him based on his reaction to Trit pretending to peek him. I was between him and sKeith.


  • #1439
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,411 ✭✭✭tritium


    kitten_k wrote: »
    Sorry guys only seen the prize PM this morning and don’t have time before munch to be here as have a meeting until 10.30.

    I went for him based on his reaction to Trit pretending to peek him. I was between him and sKeith.

    Shooting without talking isn’t village kitten is it?


  • #1440
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Morning all. I'm trying to get my head around how many wolves there are.

    Amended with Cross's kill, still on the assumption of three wolves, we now have Village / Wolves / SK = 4 / 3 / 1

    Best case scenario is they take out each other this morning, so: 4 / 2 / 0. If that happens and we lynch a wolf tonight then it'l be 4 / 1 / 0, with just one kill the following morning, to make it 3 / 1 / 0. A 25% chance of lynching the wolf then. Though plenty of other variables in there too, including who is CL at the time and can they be trusted!

    Worst case scenario is they take out two of us, so 2 / 3 / 1. Can we even come back from that? Lynch SK = 2 / 3 / 0 = Wolf Victory. Lynch Wolf = 2 / 2 / 1, but then we'll have two kills in the morning. If wolves munch the SK and SK munches a villager it's 2 / 2 / 0 and Wolf Victory again. If wolves munch the SK and SK munches a wolf, then it's 2 / 1 / 0, and we'd have a 33% chance of lynching the final wolf then. But we'd need a lot of good luck to get there.

    (I think it's right, feel free to poke holes in it).


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  • #1441
    Green&Red
    Registered Users Posts: 11,387 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    kitten_k wrote: »
    Sorry guys only seen the prize PM this morning and don’t have time before munch to be here as have a meeting until 10.30.

    I went for him based on his reaction to Trit pretending to peek him. I was between him and sKeith.

    Why didn't you announce to the group that was ur prize?

    We likely would have picked Cross anyway

    Its suspicious behaviour


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