Friday, 7 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Winter 2016-17 Outlook: I am expecting a rather different outcome from last winter, and something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. Then I expect a much milder pattern to develop in January peaking towards the end of the month with very mild weather. February and March look fairly average in my research output. This winter outlook will be updated whenever I have new insights, no update means I am holding to this outlook.

As to the short-term forecast, little change from yesterday (which is why I had the space to add the long-range outlook ...)

TODAY, some light showers will drift northwest across parts of west Munster and south Connacht. It may stay dry elsewhere and skies will be partly cloudy. Moderate southeast winds, highs near 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT, cloudy with a few clear breaks, mist or light fog by morning, cool. Lows 2-6 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and seasonably mild days with highs near 14 or 15 C.

MONDAY could turn out slightly colder with patchy light drizzle in east winds, a few sunny breaks also, lows 1-4 C with chance of ground frost, highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY will turn somewhat milder again, partly cloudy and 13-15 C.

Another shot of cool air from the east may arrive mid-week then a slow warming trend will return. Right through to mid-month there won't be much if any rain in many places, and where it does fall, it will seldom amount to much more than 1-2 mm.

Hurricane Matthew is very close to Cape Canaveral, Florida this morning, and may make a partial landfall with part of the eye remaining over the Atlantic. From there it will hug the coast all the way north to Charleston, South Carolina. Significant wind damage and coastal flooding will take place but it remains a bit unclear whether this will be a major disaster for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, or just a moderate event if either the core weakens or the strongest winds stay offshore. Some mixture of both outcomes is likely. Nicole also became a hurricane and surprised everyone by making it to category 2, her future path seems to be back to the point of origin almost, then back to where she is now after that (a long-term meandering) while Matthew may try to interact or make some other complicated loop after leaving the Carolina coast. A strong cold front is creating some severe storms in the central plains states, and will rush to the east coast, while it has turned quite cold in western Canada, in fact a foot of snow blankets much of Saskatchewan already, disrupting the incomplete harvest. My local weather was overcast, rather foggy then wet by evening, highs about 14 C.