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euser1984 20-08-2018 10:50

Your interpretation of this graph
 
Hi,
Can anyone tell me exactly what these spikes are? is is stimulus input?

thanks

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth

Geuze 21-08-2018 00:11

This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

I advise you to read the primary data here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nat...annualresults/

You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

No, it's not.

euser1984 21-08-2018 00:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geuze (Post 107846774)
This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

I advise you to read the primary data here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nat...annualresults/

You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

No, it's not.


i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy

Geuze 21-08-2018 00:23

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2015SUM_SA_FitzGerald.pdf

This will help explain.

Geuze 21-08-2018 09:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by euser1984 (Post 107846789)
i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy

Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.

El Tarangu 21-08-2018 09:29

I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geuze (Post 107847920)
Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.

Is our gdp based on stimulus plans though? who really has any full confidence in the markets after 2008 to invest money

what about luas investment for example?

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Tarangu (Post 107848080)
I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

I talked about it on the politics forum and nobody had a clue so hopefully i'll get help here

Bubbaclaus 21-08-2018 21:08

Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbaclaus (Post 107855176)
Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.

and is that really growth?

did it bring any money in?

Bubbaclaus 21-08-2018 21:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by euser1984 (Post 107855191)
and is that really growth?

Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbaclaus (Post 107855207)
Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.

do you know what the spike in 2017 was?

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:31

alright

i've a few quotes from this article https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...h-rate-3306016

"The GDP growth rate measures how fast the economy is growing. It does this by comparing one quarter of the country's gross domestic product to the previous quarter. GDP measures the economic output of a nation."

my opinion on the above quoted is that gdp is not a good insight to anything except ups and downs, based on the same things corporations use - quarterly profit reports


"The GDP growth rate is driven by the four components of GDP. The main driver of GDP growth is personal consumption. This includes the critical sector of retail sales. The second component is business investment, including construction and inventory levels. Government spending is the third driver of growth. Its largest categories are Social Security benefits, defense spending and Medicare benefits. The government often increases spending to jump start the economy during a recession. Fourth is net trade."

given that personal consumption and retail sales are the main drivers (assuming those people paid by stimulus projects) to gdp; it also means it's the first thing to go when things get sketchy. afaik most of the growth in the economy is based on retail sales atm
so i guess if the government has to implement more stimulus plans (perhaps on a grander scale in the future, if a bailout is possible

or given that the economy will dip again, is it a good idea that the people are giving all the money away to retailers (that may be offshore or use offshore services to hold the money); otherwise does it mean that every bodies euros become less valuable; while the government/ecb print to pay for services.

or would the money become less valuable automatically on an eu scale as opposed to international trading in different currencies

euser1984 21-08-2018 21:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Tarangu (Post 107848080)
I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

this is where my interest on it has come from and i'm just trying to piece together the puzzle, but thinking out loud as much as everything else too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THAaIZmxfNA

Wanderer78 21-08-2018 22:44

I wouldn't get too hung up on metrics such as growth and GDP, they're very poor metrics of measuring the well being of a society, interesting thread though


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