Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

Iancar29 · 24-03-2016 5:57pm #1

Finally nice to be able to get the Spring discussion going ! Lets hope its an active one ! Still need to tick off a proper lightning snapshot within Ireland, and not just a screen grab from video! ha

So we start off the thread with looking at potential for convective weather on Sunday. Its not particularly exciting but warrants a post none the less.

Cape and LI for Sunday afternoon is reasonable. Best area being a few hundred j/kg of cape along the east coast.

Lapse rates are good and with relatively cold air at height, hail showers will be the order of the day.

With no particular wind convergence of note, showers will be sparodic in nature .

.

The lack of wind shear will mean funnel cloud and organised cell modes will be limited. This could change.

Hope my post format is understandable and for any more recent newbies to the thread, feel free to post any questions!

:cool:

Hal1 · 26-03-2016 2:48pm

A level 1 issued for Ireland.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 26 Mar 2016 06:00 to Sun 27 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Mar 2016 06:35
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for Ireland mainly for the severe wind gusts and in lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A high covering S Europe and a ridge forcing up to CNTRL part of the continent inhibits convective activity. A cut-off with wave influencing Balkan Peninsula is located over Ukraine, but due to poor moisture and a lack of steep lapse rates, thunderstorms are unlikely. Isolated convective cells capable of producing occasional lightning are possible near Hungary and SE of Greece in the late forecast period.

The highest probability for thunderstorms during forecast validity is placed around British Isles where the passage of the cold front within the long wave trough is expected. Mixing ratios ahead of the cold air in the warm section will reach up to 7-8 /kg, but due to lack of good lapse rates, almost no CAPE will be available. Isolated convection will develop mostly behind the cold front over marine areas where lapse rates will jump to 7.5 K/km. Due to poor moisture and a low-topped convection with free convective layer of 3-4 km, only small probability for lightning without level threats is issued. Exception concerns Ireland where around 12 UTC a central section of the trough with increased vertical wind shear will pass. Thus an isolated severe wind gusts of convective origin cannot be ruled out. However, due to low equilibrium levels it is questionable if a wind shear confined mostly in 4-6 km AGL layer will contribute to a convective wind gust enhancement.

http://www.estofex.org/

Iancar29 · 26-03-2016 5:02pm

Sferic east of Cashel

sparrowcar · 26-03-2016 5:30pm

That's was a seriously intense squall line that just passed through Dublin Airport. About 60-90 seconds of intense wind and rain.

Iancar29 · 26-03-2016 5:33pm

Yeah its nice to have some convective showers once again.

Another sferic in the Wickla mountains.

Hal1 · 26-03-2016 5:33pm

A good few sferics around that tipp area now: http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Hal1 · 26-03-2016 5:35pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah its nice to have some convective showers once again.

Another sferic in the Wickla mountains.

They could be way off going by this map but the location is close enough.

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;d=2;a=2;dc=0;o=0;n=0;y=53.20550585827936;x=-6.361862182617186;z=11;

26-03-2016 6:27pm

I'm watching the snooker on ITV+1 and you can hear the rain pounding the roof of the arena in Manchester.

Lumi · 26-03-2016 6:33pm

Nice display of mammatus over Galway city a short while ago.
No pics because I was driving but hopefully Redsteve was out & about & looking up

Chris_5339762 · 26-03-2016 7:14pm

Look at that squall line across the UK now. Never seen one quite so impressive.

dexter647 · 26-03-2016 8:08pm

Lumi wrote: »

Nice display of mammatus over Galway city a short while ago.
No pics because I was driving but hopefully Redsteve was out & about & looking up

Some nice views of mammatus clouds here also in south Laois about a half an hour ago. Absolutely love convective weather so here's hoping a great season lies ahead:)

ronnie3585 · 26-03-2016 11:27pm

Thunder and lightning in Galway City!

Lumi · 26-03-2016 11:28pm

Thunder and lightning over Galway city at the moment

monster1 · 26-03-2016 11:30pm

Lumi wrote: »

Thunder and lightning over Galway city at the moment

Seen a flash alright. Thought it was a house alarm or something. Heard the rumble about 10 seconds later

ronnie3585 · 27-03-2016 12:54am

Big slap of thunder and lightning in Galway City now.

Storm 10 · 27-03-2016 12:58am

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Big slap of thunder and lightning in Galway City now.

In a bar in town the Thunder was louder than the band

Meteorite58 · 27-03-2016 1:10am

Thunder and big showers around 23.00 here near Tralee

Sundew · 27-03-2016 1:10am

I also just heard that thunderbolt in South Galway ten minutes ago........it really shook the house and I'm used to living on a railway line in Dublin! It was followed by another loud bolt but seems to have stopped now. I love. A good thunderstorm :-)

redsteveireland · 27-03-2016 2:18am

Lumi wrote: »

Nice display of mammatus over Galway city a short while ago.
No pics because I was driving but hopefully Redsteve was out & about & looking up

Ha ha, funnily enough I was at the traffic lights on the Tuam Road and spotted them. No pics though.

redsteveireland · 27-03-2016 2:22am

Very heavy rain here with intense bursts every couple of minutes with some hail mixed in. Lovely to listen to on the roof.

Totofan99 · 27-03-2016 4:23am

Just spotted lightning in east Galway on my way home a few minutes ago.

Wanderer78 · 27-03-2016 1:20pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Look at that squall line across the UK now. Never seen one quite so impressive.

i wonder was this tragic accident as a result of this squall line?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-essex-35906226

highdef · 27-03-2016 1:55pm

Thunderstorm near Athboy, Co Meath

SEPT 23 1989 · 27-03-2016 2:10pm

Very nasty sky heading towards west dublin now

DOCARCH · 27-03-2016 4:51pm

Was driving through Stepaside (in Dublin) about an hour ago and there was a really loud crack of thunder during a heavy rain/hail/sleet shower.

kittyn · 27-03-2016 5:15pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Was driving through Stepaside (in Dublin) about an hour ago and there was a really loud crack of thunder during a heavy rain/hail/sleet shower.

I though it was outside and not on the TV alright

Bsal · 27-03-2016 5:25pm

A few pics of the cell to the south of Dublin airport at 16:00

Meteorite58 · 27-03-2016 6:03pm

A good few sferics around the country today, more in the East now, cloud thinning out and becoming more benign here in Kerry

Chris_5339762 · 28-03-2016 8:48pm

A massive hailstorm caused a crash on the M8 northbound this afternoon. I was passing through about 30 minutes later (on the diversion route thanks to Google!!) and even then there were piles of slush sitting on the ground. Couldn't believe it given that it was 8º out. Must have been a big ole storm.

Psychobabble · 28-03-2016 9:45pm

I drove through this today and it was pretty scary. I was about 2km out from the Rathcormac/Fermoy toll Plaza, heading North, when a very heavy hail shower hit; the temperature gauge on the car plummeted from 11.5 to 5 in a matter of seconds. I pulled into the overtaking lane to go through the 'electronic tag' lane of the toll plaza, when all of a sudden, I sensed the car sliding around. At this stage (about 1km from the toll plaza) the shower subsided and I started coasting along. When the shower cleared, it became apparent that there was between one and two inches of slushy hail on the carriageway. I didn't dare put on the brakes and became aware of a car spun out into the central median and two others spun out on the hard shoulder. At the other side of the toll plaza, there were about ten cars pulled into the hard shoulder with their hazards going. I'd say the accident occurred minutes, if not seconds after we passed; I hope all are OK. As I said, it was very scary and it just goes to show how unpredictable things can be when driving, as this was totally localised. The conditions on the rest of the journey to Dublin were fine.

redsteveireland · 29-03-2016 1:48pm

Great hail /sleet showers around Galway today.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 2016

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