Irish summer days will be 2.6C hotter

Supercell · 28-11-2015 11:30am #1

Accoring to a new report from the EPA entitled - Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Projections for Ireland, there's an article in the Indo about it today

Key findings indicate that by the middle of this century annual average temperatures are projected to increase by 1C to 1.7C, while hot days will be warmer by between 0.7C and 2.6C.
Rainfall is expected to drop during spring and summer, putting pressure on agriculture, while heavy rainfall events will increase during winter and autumn, increasing the risk of flooding. The frequency of storms is projected to decrease, but their intensity will increase.

Speaking from a personal point of view, I really don't see the problem from an Irish perspective. If we store the rainwater in winter and autumn, then bring on the warm and dry spring and summers. What could go wrong!!

joujoujou · 28-11-2015 12:06pm

By far, I experienced exactly opposite trend, to be honest.

But, obviously, would be nice to see it happen.

Pa ElGrande · 29-11-2015 10:04pm

Here is Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland report.

The research was carried out at the Irish Centre for High-End Computing
(ICHEC) and the Meteorology and Climate Centre, University College Dublin (UCD).

If you want to use computer modelling to simulate an alternate reality then stick to Grand Theft Auto. As a basis of economic planning and policy over the long term this activity is a waste of compute cycles and energy, the output merely reflects the bias in the assumptions people made when designing the programs and has a predictive value of precisely zero i.e. useless.

We've been getting a slew of these articles as part of the build up to the Paris climate finance conference and we should expect more over the coming week. Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) is a dead animal politically and while governments may bow to the lobbyists, the money pot for this activity is shrinking. They will probably spend as much money in aggregate on the conference (flights, accommodation, transport, food, entertainment, security) as they will commit through taxation. The alarmists and rent seekers can make all the noise they want, the more they associate any weather event with their cause the more ridiculous they look in front of the public who are becoming blind to the colour coded sensationalist claims made every other day in the newspapers.

The expected green jobs dividend has failed to materialise and government green sponsored enterprises have seen massive losses worldwide. The increased energy conservation regulations are also having the opposite effect to that intended as the industry such as Automobile manufacturers focus on lighter metals such as aluminium which needs more cheap energy to produce, they also need more of other materials such as copper and lithium. The push for electric cars also comes at a cost as the infrastructure must be upgraded to provide 400/500V rapid charging stations and the cost is being pushed onto electricity consumers and will also drive a change in road pricing as more electric vehicles take to the roads. There is also increased push back on more turbines and pylons and I see lobbying to subsidise large scale solar farms in Ireland underway since the Summer.

The most devastating effect of these energy regulations affects people on the margins of society who are dying of exposure and side effects of the long, cold, damp winters of the Northern hemisphere that will not disappear in our lifetimes despite the projections of the models or wish fulfilment of the Malthusians. The reality is climate change is about the abuse of science to used to justify wealth transfer from less well off people to the very wealthy.

There is just as compelling a case that the planet may experience another Maunder minimum and that is much more devastating scenario for people who live in the Northern hemisphere.

As regards computer models in weather for long term weather projections I'll stick to the fantasy island thread, it's much more entertaining.

FWVT · 29-11-2015 11:29pm

I attended an Irish Meteorological Society talk in which the same group presented the forecasts for Ireland out to 2100. There was very little change hinted then, slightly drier in summer and fractionally warmer at night time, but nothing near 2.6 °C

sryanbruen · 05-12-2015 10:13pm

Wish it was 2.6c than the Summer gone! :mad:

08-12-2015 6:26am

Key results from the global and European simulations
•
Mean global land temperatures are expected to rise by 2.7 degrees for the period 2071-2100 under
a medium-low emission scenario (RCP4.5) and by up to 5.4 degrees under a high emission scenario
(RCP8.5). Warming is greatest at high latitudes, leading to an accelerated loss of Arctic sea-ice cover.
•
The estimated warming may be conservative, as “global brightening” associated with a reduction in
air pollution may lead to enhanced warming.
•
Global mean annual precipitation amounts over land are projected to increase by 4.4 % under RCP4.5
and by up to 7.6% for RCP8.5 by 2071-2100. Under the more extreme RCP8.5 forcing there is a strong
signal for wetter winters and drier summers for Europe.
•
Cold extremes are predicted to warm faster than warm extremes by about 30% on average with the
excessive warming of the cold extremes mainly confined to regions with retreating snow and sea-ice
cover.
•
There is an overall increase in rainfall extremes over the tropics and extratropics and a decrease over
the subtropics.
•
Declining Arctic sea ice may increase the likelihood of cold continental air outbreaks over Ireland
during winter.

More info here:
http://www.met.ie/publications/IrelandsWeather-13092013.pdf
Page 91 on about the little ice age is interesting too.

There are many periods of abrupt climate change
evident in geological records but there are only a
few cases where abrupt cooling occurs in climate
model simulations

fits · 08-12-2015 7:24am

Supercell wrote: »

Accoring to a new report from the EPA entitled - Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Projections for Ireland, there's an article in the Indo about it today

Speaking from a personal point of view, I really don't see the problem from an Irish perspective. If we store the rainwater in winter and autumn, then bring on the warm and dry spring and summers. What could go wrong!!

Its a mistake to look at this just from an Irish perspective to be honest but here we go. This a big global problem and even if the effects arent locally catastrophic here, they will be elsewhere and that will effect us all. In Ireland as far as i am concerned the big risk is flooding. Storm surges combined with rising sea levels will make a lot of coastal towns and cities very vulnerable. The right storm from the right direction could absolutely flood cork badly for example.
Any model outputs i have looked at, and they do vary quite a bit, but the patterns are the same, predict a wetter northern europe and a drier southern europe with ireland and uk either in one zone or the other. There is a major pattern of an increase in extreme events already emerging.

I dont think its right to say it'll be warmer here in our small corner of the world so all will be grand. It wont.

Harry Palmr · 08-12-2015 12:36pm

I thought we lived in a north Atlantic cool spot!

11-12-2015 12:56am

fits wrote: »

Its a mistake to look at this just from an Irish perspective to be honest but here we go. This a big global problem and even if the effects arent locally catastrophic here, they will be elsewhere and that will effect us all. In Ireland as far as i am concerned the big risk is flooding. Storm surges combined with rising sea levels will make a lot of coastal towns and cities very vulnerable. The right storm from the right direction could absolutely flood cork badly for example.
Any model outputs i have looked at, and they do vary quite a bit, but the patterns are the same, predict a wetter northern europe and a drier southern europe with ireland and uk either in one zone or the other. There is a major pattern of an increase in extreme events already emerging.

I dont think its right to say it'll be warmer here in our small corner of the world so all will be grand. It wont.

Co2 levels have been orders of magnitude higher than todays levels while global temps have been both warmer and cooler during those times. Climate and weather modelling also still needs work. Some of the biggest factors are unknowns like H2o/cloud formation (some types of cloud cause warming and some cooling).
Worth noting that Co2 levels are at some of the lowest in the planets history (while life has existed) and 150ppm is a level where alot of plants stop growing. Check out the CO2 fertilisation effect and the greening of the Sahara in recent times.

We can also deal with a hotter world, even with higher sea levels, but we cant deal with a mile high of ice across Europe which is how it was during ice ages. Just look at the Zuiderzee in the Netherlands.

These levels of warming would make Ireland more similar to New Zealand. Not really much different. I think global warming is hugely overblown.
In fact Christchurch is Dublin with 2-3c added in average temp across the year.

Pa ElGrande · 11-12-2015 8:00am

#From here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses - ->
Oct. 30, 2015
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

I wonder is there anyway to accelerate the warming? The CO2 does not seem to be having the desired outcome at the poles.

fits · 11-12-2015 9:33am

Deleted User wrote: »

Co2 levels have been orders of magnitude higher than todays levels while global temps have been both warmer and cooler during those times. .

Of course CO2 levels were higher in the past. This is not news to anyone with any level of knowledge. The difference now is that the composition of the atmosphere is changing at an unprecedented rate - due in large part to human activity. The climate is also changing at an unprecedented rate. It may not be so noticeable right now in Ireland but it is very very noticeable elsewhere.

fits · 11-12-2015 9:38am

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

...
I wonder is there anyway to accelerate the warming? The CO2 does not seem to be having the desired outcome at the poles.

The poles, yep there are two of them. You conveniently left out the data about sea ice extent at the ARctic.

12-12-2015 2:35am

fits wrote: »

Of course CO2 levels were higher in the past. This is not news to anyone with any level of knowledge. The difference now is that the composition of the atmosphere is changing at an unprecedented rate - due in large part to human activity. The climate is also changing at an unprecedented rate. It may not be so noticeable right now in Ireland but it is very very noticeable elsewhere.

The CO2 levels were higher in the past with colder average temperatures - thats the point. As for the rate of change....here is a publication, in Nature no less, that states the change is unprecedented in the last 1,000 years approx. The blink of an ice in a geological time scale.
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2552.html

rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years

What happened back then? The medieval warm period when Greenland was named and settled by the Vikings. They didnt last when the climate got colder of course.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

but hey we are racing towards being as "warm" as Christchurch, NZ.

12-12-2015 2:45am

fits wrote: »

The poles, yep there are two of them. You conveniently left out the data about sea ice extent at the ARctic.

Well here is data on the North pole from the Harvard Smithsonian center for astrophysics - a place where research funding isnt entirely dependent on climate change shenanigans.
http://www.epi-us.com/Soon05-SolarArcticTempGRLfinal.pdf

How about you tell me which correlates better - temp change and Co2 or temp change and solar irradiance? And if the North pole is being heated by the sun and the south pole is gaining ice. Where does that leave us? Is it Co2 as a primary or secondary driver? What about Milankovitch cycles? If the sun is "warmer" does the fact that the earth is closer to the sun in the Northern Hemisphere winter, not having a perfectly round orbit, play a role in this?

12-12-2015 3:07am

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There is just as compelling a case that the planet may experience another Maunder minimum and that is much more devastating scenario for people who live in the Northern hemisphere.

Worst time ever to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions. I hope researchers and mainstream media catches on to this.

A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.

22-12-2015 2:35am

If the liffey ran dry people would blame global warming. It would seem like such a shocking thing to happen. It has happened before. During the middle ages. It doesnt prove or disprove anything. Neither do recent weather events.

M1452.8

A sure wonderful presage occurred in this year, some time before the death of the Earl, namely, part of the River Liffey was dried up, to the extent of two miles.

http://www.ucc.ie/celt/online/T100005D/text008.html

We also need to view temperature trends statistically. If averages are continuously being broken then you really can argue that there are not enough data points yet (i.e we havent been recording temperature long enough to paint the correct picture). This is obvious in places where record highs are not recorded when it should be the hottest time of year.

A warming trend could be implied, if low records are not being broken. However:
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-cold-early-march

You can still imply a warming trend if more high records are being broken than cold but it does mean you should dial back the intensity of the "trend".

There is also the question of applying trends to datasets that are a blink in the eye of geological time.

Also of interest
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35082422

New calculations show that our already sizeable water footprint is 18% bigger than we thought.

The study is based on a century's worth of observational data drawn from 100 river basins across the world.

It reveals a significant increase in the water being "lost" to the atmosphere as a direct result of human activity.

This occurs through evaporation from land and water surfaces, and from plants as they transpire.

Link to the paper itself
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/350/6265/1248

This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km3/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling.

This is not insignificant.

"Dam and irrigation developments - even though local - have a big global impact on human water consumption. That's what has not been calculated before and what we've estimated in this paper," Prof Destouni said.

"The water footprint could be up to 20% larger than previously estimated," Dr Jaramillo revealed.

"In dry areas, reducing the water in the environment can have an enormous impact on humans and ecosystems. In a wet landscape, it is in relative terms not as big in the direr areas. Central Asia (Aral Sea), Middle East, areas around the Mediterranean - these are examples of most vulnerable."

And

http://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/survey-notes/glad-you-asked/ice-ages-what-are-they-and-what-causes-them/

On a shorter time scale, global temperatures fluctuate often and rapidly. Various records reveal numerous large, widespread, abrupt climate changes over the past 100,000 years. One of the more recent intriguing findings is the remarkable speed of these changes. Within the incredibly short time span (by geologic standards) of only a few decades or even a few years, global temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 15°F (8°C) or more

Man made or not this is something we need to be prepared for. Many great reasons to go green, but focusing on Co2 and taxing it when we ignore things like particulates, So2 etc is silly. The best reasons to go green and cut back pollution are things like the Asian brown cloud and the huge numbers of deaths every year from pollution related respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. These deaths are happening now.

ninebeanrows · 22-12-2015 2:50am

Deleted User wrote: »

The CO2 levels were higher in the past with colder average temperatures - thats the point. As for the rate of change....here is a publication, in Nature no less, that states the change is unprecedented in the last 1,000 years approx. The blink of an ice in a geological time scale.
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2552.html

What happened back then? The medieval warm period when Greenland was named and settled by the Vikings. They didnt last when the climate got colder of course.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

but hey we are racing towards being as "warm" as Christchurch, NZ.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11564168

22-12-2015 2:57am

Previous record was 35c, for a place that is warmer than Ireland on average it isnt much higher than the record high at Kilkenny. In fact its 2-3c higher. Expected! But it would always have a wider range of extremes because of the mountain effects but also because the Southern hemisphere is slightly nearer the sun during the summer and further away in the winter. The opposite for the Northern Hemisphere.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-12-2015 9:26am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Previous record was 35c, for a place that is warmer than Ireland on average it isnt much higher than the record high at Kilkenny. In fact its 2-3c higher. Expected! But it would always have a wider range of extremes because of the mountain effects but also because the Southern hemisphere is slightly nearer the sun during the summer and further away in the winter. The opposite for the Northern Hemisphere.

Dunedin is also 45 °S, a similar latitude to places like Bordeaux and New York city in the north.

sryanbruen · 04-07-2016 11:51am

A year later from the freezing Summer of 2015 and still not much difference this year. Irish Summer days will be 2.6c hotter? :pac: When will that happen...

Hooter23 · 04-07-2016 12:43pm

2.6c hotter compared to the last ice age:mad:

Padster90s · 05-07-2016 5:34am

Lol, you'd need a thread like this to give you a laugh! It is Ireland we're talking about. It will probably be 2.6C colder with more rain... OP you're right and I'm with you, climate change will catch up with us/or has already. I'd bet you a billion euro that warmer and dryer Summers won't be what climate change dishes out to Ireland. Milder Winters, floods, powerful storms and far lesser distinguishing between the seasons would be a safer bet. Genuinely Op, I couldn't see at all how rainfall would decrease in Ireland!

_Brian · 05-07-2016 9:31am

Climate change adds more energy into the atmosphere, this lifts more moisture from large bodies of water like the Atlantic, given our position and prevailing winds this moisture is lifted up and then will be dumped in on us.

Climate change for Ireland will result in less settled weather patterns and increased rainfall. Well occasionally have very cold winters but the overall trend will be a bit milder damper conditions with less periods we would call dry spells.

sryanbruen · 05-07-2016 1:12pm

Yeah rainfall will get heavier and heavier over time because warmer air can hold more moisture. In November 2009, Ireland recorded its wettest month on record until 6 years later, December 2015 came along and broke that record. Could it be another 6 years 'til we see another wettest month on record?

Irish summer days will be 2.6C hotter

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