Archie's NCAA/NFL Log 2015

As for today's games:

- The Alabama line is up to -13 now, so I've got 3 points in hand having gotten it at 10 (it was actually -10.5 but I bought the extra .5). I think this could be a blowout - very strong possibility Alabama win this one by 3 scores. They are very impressive in these marquee season openers, winning their last 6 by an average of 19.2 against ranked opponents. Wisconsin are a big name, but I worry for them this year. Joel Stave is a very, very average quarterback and that's being kind, and I have big concerns about Paul Chryst as head coach - I think this job is too big for him. We know what to expect with Wisconsin - an aggresive offensive line that usually outplays most defensive lines they face. But Ohio State showed last year what happens when the D-line is better. Not saying Alabama are going to replicate that 59-0 win, but I think they will win big here. And even if they dont, I don't see a back door cover as Alabama have lowly Middle Tennessee next week as a cupcake recovery game.

- Tennessee could make some waves this year - Joshua Dobbs looks like a real good dual-threat QB and could wreak havoc while hosting Bowling Green. And while BG return pretty much every key contributor on offence, it's the defence that always has been their problem and will continue to be. They conceded a lot of points last year - A LOT. Both starting defensive ends have left, and they take 20 tackles for loss with them. Also gone is "star" middle linebacker Gabe Martin who was somewhat of a diamond in the rough on their defensive (18 tackles for loss - every other linebacker combined only had 15.5). They've also lost the 3 players in their secondary with the most tackles. They will be playing a lot of freshman and signees this year and it will take time to gel, if that even happens. A spread of 20.5 is quite generous considering the circumstances I feel. But be wary, a backdoor cover could be on the cards as Tennessee will be looking ahead to the Sooners next week.

- As for USC, might not want to put too much stock in me taking this pick as it's a homer pick, but this offence is loaded. One of the best offensive lines in the country returns, with some real talent at the skill positions. But most of all, Steve Sarkisian is not calling plays. He's a limited playcaller, so Clay Helton is taking over. USC are 7-2 when Helton has been play calling, and he has more yards-per-play than either Sarkisian or Kiffin before him. So that bodes well. From watching USC over the years, this is the type of game we win comfortably, and that will be the same against Idaho next week. After that is where it gets difficult. So pound USC until conference play kicks off.

A couple of early ones for this weekend.

Georgia Tech - 28
Oklahoma (Pick)
Louisiana Tech (+2)
LSU -3
Georgia -19
LSU - 3
Oregon +3.5

This weeks bets finalised.

2 early picks for next week.

Georgia Tech - 2 (Going big)
Cal -7

StringerBell wrote: »

If you get time I'd appreciate a little insight into why such a strong lean on Georgia Tech, looking over the fixtures for next week myself and nothing really jumped at me. (I'm basically asking if its down to the problems ND have rather then something you have seen in Georgia Tech)

Sure no worries, it's really down to a combination of Georgia Tech not getting the respect they deserve, and Notre Dame being over-rated (for THIS particular game week, now that they have lost their starting RB and QB for the season). Here's my write up:

Georgia Tech are quietly one of the most impressive teams in college football. I use “quietly” loosely, as they are ranked #14 but they should be higher. The only reason they aren’t is because the 2 games they’ve had this year have been cupcakes. But if you look back to the tail end of last year, Tech were rolling with 3 very impressive victories over ranked opponents– beating Clemson by 22, Georgia by 6 and Mississippi State by 15. Their only other game versus a ranked opponent was that classic versus Florida State who they ran VERY close, losing 37-35 thanks to another Jameis Winston comeback special. But this run-in at the end of last year proved that Tech were legit.

The thing is, it took them a while to get rolling last year. Their easy games at the start of the year were anything but convincing, and provide a stark contrast to this year’s openers. They were winning against the likes of Wofford and Tulane by 19 and 17 points respectively – now this year they are beating Alcorn State and Tulane by 63 and 55. This shows me that there’s no rustiness this time around, they’ve hit the ground running and we can expect them to be playing at the high level it took them half a season to hit last year almost immediately this year.

As for this match-up, the week 1 and week 2 blowouts meant that GT could pull their starters in the 3rd quarter two weeks in a row. Those guys will be fully rested and chomping at the bit. Notre Dame on the other hand are coming off of a last gasp victory against Virginia despite being favoured by 12.5 at kickoff. There was no opportunity to rest anybody, and after losing their starting RB in Week 1 for the season they’ve now lost starting QB Malik Zaireto a broken ankle.

Even though Kiser looked alright coming in as his replacement, this is a big, big boost for Georgia Tech because he is not the dual-threat QB that Zaire was. It makes things a lot easier for GT – double team Bill Fuller at WR and stack the box versus the run. Make Kiser beat you through the air without his #1 target. He doesn’t have the experience to do that imo, he’s only getting reps as a starter this week. Everything that Brian Kelly worked on this spring took into account Zaire’s threat as a runner when the pocket breaks down or on designed QB runs. That all goes out the window now. Something else to monitor is that Notre Dame’s starting TE is also doubtful for Saturday – sow orst case scenario he won’t be 100%. He’s not much as a weapon for Kiser but he’s a very good blocking TE.

Now I would usually love a home underdog like Notre Dame in this game, but Georgia Tech actually opened as a 2 point underdog. Yeah that’s right, despite Georgia Tech’s amazing finish to last year, and blowing out 2 cupcakes this year, they were still underdogs against a Notre Dame team minus its starting QB and RB, and that struggled against a Virginia team that UCLA blew out in Week 1. That’s a slap in the face for GT and this game now becomes a statement game for them – I’m fully convinced they are not getting the respect they deserve because (i) they are not a big name/logo and (ii) they have a gimmick triple-option offence. Well that gimmick offence was too much for the beloved SEC’s Georgia and Mississippi State tohandle, and it also blew Clemson away.

I have GT favoured by at least a TD in this as I just can’t see the Irish keeping up with them. It could get out of hand in the fourth if GT pull away and force Kiser to try make something happen.

I guess it should also be pointed out that Notre Dame struggled massively against Navy's version of the triple option last year allowing 39 points and 450+ yards. Needless to say Georgia Tech run a much more dangerous and high powered triple option.

Write ups on the above. If my confidence scale is 1-5 and Georgia Tech is a 5, then I'd say South Carolina is a 4, BYU is a 2.5 and Tulsa is a 1.5.

Something about Oklahoma doesn’t sit right with me. Lincoln Riley’s air raid offence has barely taken off, all the while taking touches away from their best player on offence in Samaje Perine. It’s not that he’s not getting the carries – he has 34 through the first 2 weeks – but there’s no imagination behind the play calling. It’s as if their star player is being used only to keep defences honest.

Baker Mayfield transferred over and he was identified as the man to run this pass heavy scheme, but he’s been very up and down. Through 2 games, he’s really only shown up in the second half (and in the case of the Tennessee game, only the 4th quarter). For me, Oklahoma have been over-rated for several years in a row (admittedly by myself in Landry Jones’ final year) and they’re right on track again.

What I like most about this game against Tulsa is that it’s sandwiched in between 2 tough games for them – a road trip to Tennessee last week where they had to play double-overtime to come out on top, and a potential shootout with West Virginia in 2 weeks’ time. I know, the bye week next week isn’t great – you can take that two ways. They will either be fired up and want to enter that bye with the convincing win that’s eluded them so far, or they’ll be already looking ahead to the Mountaineers and could overlook Tulsa. That’s a toss up and the possibility of both cancel each other out so I’m not going to give the bye week too much attention.

But the extra effort of last week’s game versus Tennessee is definitely a big plus. On the other side of things, Tulsa actually have a pretty decent offense. Not too much stock can be put in putting up 47 against FAU and 40 against New Mexico, though the 47 against FAU is more than double what they put up last year. Dane Evans looks decent at QB, and they are putting up good numbers on the ground, and Keevan Lucas and Keyarris Garrett might be the most exciting 1-2 WR duo outside of Baylor.

This isn’t a high confidence bet, but it’s worth a flutter. Oklahoma just haven’t impressed while Tulsa have, and I don’t see the Sooners being up for this after last week’s dramatics. It could be a 42-14 type of game, I just think the 30 points Tulsa are getting is too hard to turn down.

I had Georgia -19 over Vanderbilt, and they failed to cover in a 31-14 win. But if you watched the game, it really wasn’t a 31-14 performance. Firstly, Vandy threw a last gasp interception as they chased the game that was returned for a pick six. Secondly, Grayson Lambert does not look like a good QB for the Bulldogs – Brice Ramsey looks much better but they insist on rolling with Lambert. It’s worth noting that Georgia haven’t beaten South Carolina by more than 17 points since 2006 – and that was an 18 point win.

The spread is 17 because of South Carolina’s loss to Kentucky, and their loss of starting QB Connor Mitch. Well, Mitch is not a good QB – he’s completed only 44% of his passes with 5.69 yards per attempt up to his injury. Perry Orth looks the better player with a 68% completion rate and 9.2 yards per attempt so I think that actually goes in our favour. Sure Georgia have the 3 headed monster at RB in Chubb, Michel and Marshall, but I think South Carolina can stack the box against these guys and force Lambert to throw the ball more than Georgia would like. If that can happen, then the Gamecocks could even upset Georgia here.

I don’t think they will win, but I certainly don’t think they’ll lose by more than 2 TDs either. I expect this to be a low scoring affair, perhaps around 28-17 to Georgia.

I think BYU are being undervalued here. Everyone is looking back at the Nebraska game thinking “it took a hail mary for them to win”, but they put themselves in position to win that game plenty of times – they were very unlucky to be in the position they were going into that last drive. Against Boise, they came out with a 9 point win on the road despite being 3 point underdogs, again owing to another late touchdown.

But that’s what Tanner Mangum brings to this team – he has a big arm and that opens up the field for BYU. If BYU can maintain the pocket for Mangum against a UCLA team missing Eddie Vanderdoes, then there could some big plays in this one. The defence looked very good against an admittedly poor Boise offence, but 3 interceptions are not to be shrugged at.

If BYU can spring the upset here, they’ll be looking at their schedule and thinking this can be a huge year. They were underdogs against both Nebraska and Boise, yet here they are at 2-0. On the other hand, UCLA blew out Virginia in week one, but a 37-3 win against UNLV was far less convincing than the scoreline suggests. Josh Rosen looked more like a true freshman QB and BYU’s defence will be a step above anything he’s faced so far.

I just think confidence is high at BYU and I’m going to keep betting on them until they let me down. I think a win might be too much to ask for, but they can run UCLA close here.

Last 2 bets this week are Auburn +7 and USC -10. Write ups for any of the ones I haven't written will be posted today, just hard to find the time.

Well that was a steaming pile of crap. So ends this year's betting.

Hard not to like Oregon -7 at Colorado today. Sure Oregon are not the team they once were, but have they really fallen so far that they are only a 7 point favourite against Colorado of all teams - the same Colorado who lost to Hawaii earlier this year? Sefo Liufao is carrying a shoulder injury at QB for Colorado so he won't be 100%. I just find this spread hard to believe - could be the case that Vegas knows something we don't, but that spread is too low to ignore. I'm going big on Oregon today to try restore some pride.

Also like Alabama and Notre Dame both on the money like as +2 underdogs to get wins today, as well as under 88.5 in Baylor/Texas Tech and under 73.5 in Texas/TCU.

StringerBell wrote: »

Could be something to do with the shooting?

I doubt it, the college had nothing to do with UO and the spread has been around the 7/8 mark since before the shooting happened.

I just think it's far too low even if Jeff Lockie starts. It would be one thing if Colorado were this up and coming team with a lot of potential, but they're not. Could be wrong, and could well be a case of "if it's too good to be true, it probably is" but I'm going for it anyway.

Also something to look out for today is how Indiana are fairing against Ohio State at half time. Indiana are 4-0, but have also outscored their opponents by 53-0 in third quarters this year which is a sign of some great half-time adjustments being made. If they're down by a bit at HT, I'll take their spread in-play.