Costa Book Award Tuesday 27th anuary

insidertips · 20-01-2015 1:45am #1

Costa Book Award winner-Ali Smith

You heard it here first.

Thank me later.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 1:53am

I got on at 2.2 with Betfair.

But now only William Hill are offering the market at 2.5

Its buying money.

robbiezero · 20-01-2015 1:41pm

Any way of finding out what price it finished on the betfair market before it closed?

insidertips · 20-01-2015 3:30pm

robbiezero wrote: »

Any way of finding out what price it finished on the betfair market before it closed?

I placed my bet just before the market was pulled on Betfair at 2.2.

2.5 on William Hill are good odds, but the cap prevents one lumping on a huge stake.

The max I was allowed on Betfair was 267 Euro.

Had the market been up on exchange rather than sportsbook I would have lumped on 2000 Euro which is my standard bet.

This is a dead cert, so you are buying money.

frat · 20-01-2015 5:15pm

insidertips wrote: »

I placed my bet just before the market was pulled on Betfair at 2.2.

2.5 on William Hill are good odds, but the cap prevents one lumping on a huge stake.

The max I was allowed on Betfair was 267 Euro.

Had the market been up on exchange rather than sportsbook I would have lumped on 2000 Euro which is my standard bet.

This is a dead cert, so you are buying money.

You mention in another thread that the biggest you have ever won "will be 4,500" when a bet comes in next month. In another thread you say that if the same bet comes in you'll win 5 times more than your previous biggest win, yet you say above that your standard bet is minimum 2k - doesn't all add up to me!

insidertips · 20-01-2015 5:25pm

frat wrote: »

You mention in another thread that the biggest you have ever won "will be 4,500" when a bet comes in next month. In another thread you say that if the same bet comes in you'll win 5 times more than your previous biggest win, yet you say above that your standard bet is minimum 2k - doesn't all add up to me!

It was a typo. It should have read 24,500. 4,900 is my personal record, so its 5 times that.
It took me 48 hours to trickle my stake on sportsbook pre-market, then the balance on exchange as soon as the market went live when Chegwin entered the house.

Sometimes the keys stick on my Dell Inspiron laptop (common problem). If you look at my thread titles you will see I also missed the J off January too. I wouldn't mind but its the second keypad I on after getting Dell to replace it under warranty!

Apologies for any confusion caused. Enjoy your winnings.

ianburke · 20-01-2015 5:40pm

insidertips wrote: »

It was a typo. It should have read 24,500. 4,900 is my personal record, so its 5 times that.
It took me 48 hours to trickle my stake on sportsbook pre-market, then the balance on exchange as soon as the market went live when Chegwin entered the house.

Sometimes the keys stick on my Dell Inspiron laptop (common problem). If you look at my thread titles you will see I also missed the J off January too. I wouldn't mind but its the second keypad I on after getting Dell to replace it under warranty!

Apologies for any confusion caused. Enjoy your winnings.

so how much u get on? cant believe betfair sportsbook wud lay more than a couple hundred.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 7:25pm

ianburke wrote: »

so how much u get on? cant believe betfair sportsbook wud lay more than a couple hundred.

2722 at average odds of 9.0

100 on sportsbook, and 2622 matched on exchange.

48 hours of trickling on so not to cause market distortion lumping on too much at once.

So 24,500 return; less the Betfair commission of course.

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 7:35pm

insidertips wrote: »

2722 at average odds of 9.0

100 on sportsbook, and 2622 matched on exchange.

48 hours of trickling on so not to cause market distortion lumping on too much at once.

So 24,500 return; less the Betfair commission of course.

According to betfair history the highest price matched was 8.0
but yet you have 2722 at average odds of 9.0

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/special-bets/marketactivity?id=1.116682215&selectionId=6923114

ianburke · 20-01-2015 7:38pm

insidertips wrote: »

2722 at average odds of 9.0

100 on sportsbook, and 2622 matched on exchange.

48 hours of trickling on so not to cause market distortion lumping on too much at once.

So 24,500 return; less the Betfair commission of course.

highest hes been matched on exchange is 7.8 which isnt even 7/1 though.shortest price hes been on the sportsbook was 9/2.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 7:39pm

Correct. The highest matched on exchange was 8.0. I also bet 100 Euro on sportsbook pre-market (before housemates were confirmed after entering the house). So this raised my average odds to over 8.0, to an average of 9.0

ianburke · 20-01-2015 7:42pm

insidertips wrote: »

Correct. The highest matched on exchange was 8.0. I also bet 100 Euro on sportsbook pre-market (before housemates were confirmed after entering the house). So this raised my average odds to over 8.0, to an average of 9.0

still doesnt add up. highest on exchange,and these were for mickey mouse amounts was not even 7/1. so 2300 on that returns 16k and 100 on the book wud return max 550. so theres a 5k difference in estimated returns??? screenshot wud clear it up.

u mentioned u set up fake twitters and forum names to trick people into moving markets...now im beginning to think ur betting on hopkins! ive stuck a small saver on her just to be on the safe side

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 7:44pm

insidertips wrote: »

2722 at average odds of 9.0

100 on sportsbook, and 2622 matched on exchange.

48 hours of trickling on so not to cause market distortion lumping on too much at once.

So 24,500 return; less the Betfair commission of course.

insidertips wrote: »

Correct. The highest matched on exchange was 8.0. I also bet 100 Euro on sportsbook pre-market (before housemates were confirmed after entering the house). So this raised my average odds to over 8.0, to an average of 9.0

2722 multiplied by 9.0 is 24,498 return your claiming .

How is this possible ?

You put €100 on sportsbook at what odds .?

insidertips · 20-01-2015 7:51pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

2722 multiplied by 9.0 is 24,498 return your claiming .

How is this possible ?

You put €100 on sportsbook at what odds .?

You have answered your own question.

2722 Euro total stake backed at average odds of 9.0

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 7:57pm

insidertips wrote: »

You have answered your own question.

2722 Euro total stake backed at average odds of 9.0

6 €908
6.2 €475
6.4 €682
6.6 €720
6.8 €468
7 €1,245
7.2 €268
7.4 €701
7.6 €756
7.8 €464
8 €13

This is what has been wagered on betfair .

How could you possibly have average odds of 9.0

what odds did you get off betfair sportsbook?

insidertips · 20-01-2015 8:16pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

6 €908
6.2 €475
6.4 €682
6.6 €720
6.8 €468
7 €1,245
7.2 €268
7.4 €701
7.6 €756
7.8 €464
8 €13

This is what has been wagered on betfair .

How could you possibly have average odds of 9.0

what odds did you get off betfair sportsbook?

100 Euro at 13.0 pre-market on sportsbook.

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 9:10pm

The abuse you gave people on the Mrs Browns Boys thread
and then you come out with all this nonsense yourself.

Some neck.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 9:21pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

The abuse you gave people on the Mrs Browns Boys thread
and then you come out with all this nonsense yourself.

Some neck.

You are sounding negative there.
If you don't fancy my winning tips; no offence implied, and none taken.
You don't have to join the winners club.
Best of luck in your own bets. Feel free to put your tips up.
I am just trying to help others win, its good to share the kindness isn't it?
Or maybe its just the winning that keep me positive.
You know best, so I am sure you will work it all out.

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 9:29pm

ianburke wrote: »

still doesnt add up. highest on exchange,and these were for mickey mouse amounts was not even 7/1. so 2300 on that returns 16k and 100 on the book wud return max 550. so theres a 5k difference in estimated returns??? screenshot wud clear it up.

u mentioned u set up fake twitters and forum names to trick people into moving markets...now im beginning to think ur betting on hopkins! ive stuck a small saver on her just to be on the safe side

Sorry Ian I didn't see your post earlier.

You have summed it all up well.

A screenshot would clear it all up.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 9:32pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

Sorry Ian I didn't see your post earlier.

You have summed it all up well.

A screenshot would clear it all up.

A gentleman never reveals his secrets.

My tips are more than enough on that front.

Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 9:36pm

insidertips wrote: »

You are sounding negative there.
If you don't fancy my winning tips; no offence implied, and none taken.
You don't have to join the winners club.
Best of luck in your own bets. Feel free to put your tips up.
I am just trying to help others win, its good to share the kindness isn't it?
Or maybe its just the winning that keep me positive.
You know best, so I am sure you will work it all out.

No I'm not negative,and yes fair play to you for putting up
your tips.
Some are well thought out and isn't that what forums are for.

It's no skin off my nose whether you have €2 or €2000 on something,
but as I said if you give out unwarranted abuse to people you are going to
have people jumping on your back when you claim to have 4 figure bets
that's impossible to have.

Good luck with your bet

As night follows day tho you dont have 2400 on this

insidertips · 20-01-2015 9:40pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

No I'm not negative,and yes fair play to you for putting up
your tips.
Some are well thought out and isn't that what forums are for.

It's no skin off my nose whether you have €2 or €2000 on something,
but as I said if you give out unwarranted abuse to people you are going to
have people jumping on your back when you claim to have 4 figure bets
that's impossible to have.

Good luck with your bet

As night follows day tho you dont have 2400 on this

I never said I had 2400 on this, so you are correct in that statement.

If you are going to try to be smart, then get your quotes right first.

I said I had 2722 on this.

Juwwi · 20-01-2015 9:52pm

insidertips wrote: »

I never said I had 2400 on this, so you are correct in that statement.

If you are going to try to be smart, then get your quotes right first.

I said I had 2722 on this.

This is getting silly now.

Your saying to me if l'm going to be smart get quotes right first :eek:

yet you are claiming you have 100 on sportsbook at 13.0

and 2622 at odds odds of 8.0 or less on betfair exchange

but your somehow going to get 24500 back.

and lm even ignoring the fact oddschecker history is saying the highest
he was ever on sportsbook was 9.0,,but we'll ignore that as they could be wrong.

As l said good luck it's going around around in circles.

insidertips · 20-01-2015 11:08pm

Careful now, or you will be making Alicia Duvall look bright.

insidertips · 21-01-2015 10:16am

Back on topic, Ali Smith is on target to win this.
Only William Hill are now offering a market at odds of 2.5
All the other bookies that were offering markets have now pulled it.
Betfair and Paddy Power had nice odds of 2.2 last week; so congratulations to those who got on this. Enjoy your winnings next Tuesday night.
I could only get on 267 Euro at 2.2 on Betfair's sportsbook due to their cap limit. And its a shame they wouldn't offer the market on exchange as it was value.
A win is a win though.

22-01-2015 12:43am

Looks promising, currently 44% popularity at x2.5 on WH, not max stake indicated, but 'single' market only.
Could still be tricky, if it's anything like the Mercury awards as 'outsiders/wildcards' are common there.

Other upcoming novelties:

Elizabeth (R'baby) x6
EIba (Next Bond) x3

+further down the line..
Jeb (USA'16) x7

Would only consider as an EW Accum Stack...

27-01-2015 8:07pm

Results to be officially announced today...

Smith’s novel, which brings together the stories of a modern teenager and a Renaissance artist, was the odds-on favourite at 5/4 on Monday to win the £30,000 award by bookmakers William Hill. Smith’s novel has sold just under 14,500 copies to date, according to BookScan.

She should have put a few dolla on it herself, judging from the prize & sales stats.
Looks promising all the same.

cup of tea · 27-01-2015 8:14pm

Jameson Spicy Junkie wrote: »

Results to be officially announced today...

Smith’s novel, which brings together the stories of a modern teenager and a Renaissance artist, was the odds-on favourite at 5/4 on Monday to win the £30,000 award by bookmakers William Hill. Smith’s novel has sold just under 14,500 copies to date, according to BookScan.

She should have put a few dolla on it herself, judging from the prize & sales stats.
Looks promising all the same.

3rd favourite sold 82k

27-01-2015 10:45pm

just in: Helen Macdonald wins Costa Book of the Year 2014.

Macdonald beat novelist and bookmakers' favourite Ali Smith, with How to be Both, debut writer Emma Healey's Elizabeth is Missing, poet Jonathan Edwards with My Family and Other Superheroes and author and journalist Kate Saunders, with Five Children on the Western Front, to win the overall prize.

bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-31009421

Always prefer Novelties/Specials as part of an EW Accumulator due to the wildcard aspects, AFAIK only StanJames allow bet mergers with football, horses, golf with these specials markets...

ianburke · 28-01-2015 12:11am

Jameson Spicy Junkie wrote: »

just in: Helen Macdonald wins Costa Book of the Year 2014.

Macdonald beat novelist and bookmakers' favourite Ali Smith, with How to be Both, debut writer Emma Healey's Elizabeth is Missing, poet Jonathan Edwards with My Family and Other Superheroes and author and journalist Kate Saunders, with Five Children on the Western Front, to win the overall prize.

bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-31009421

Always prefer Novelties/Specials as part of an EW Jameson Spicy Junkie due to the wildcard aspects, AFAIK only StanJames allow bet mergers with football, horses, golf with these specials markets...

will hill was only site i cud find odds on and so cudnt get a bet on. i see the winner was 11/4

28-01-2015 12:22am

Some of these smaller awards like to pull a not so obvious one out of the hat to seemingly add more credibility.
Mercury Prize springs to mind here e.g. James Blake went out to x40 for 2013's win.

--

Only other interesting new Novelty/Special/TV-Market circulating is for Greece to jump the Euro-ship of Austerity fun.

Latest reports have to shorting to x4 or so. Only problemo is wouldn't see ROI 'till circa 2016.
Would be hard to find a place to slap this onto an accum stack. Plus ye would be looking at couple years interest loss/RPI for the big wait.

Costa Book Award Tuesday 27th anuary

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