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Celebrity Big Brother winner

  • 20-01-2015 2:29am
    #1
    insidertips
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31 ✭


    Celebrity Big Brother winner-Keith Chegwin
    The final will be Friday 6th February with 7 housemates remaining.
    I got on Keith Chegwin pre-show before he was confirmed as entering the house at odds of 9.0
    But there is still market value to be had at odds of 4.0
    You heard it here first.
    Thank me later.


Comments

  • #2
    insidertips
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31 ✭insidertips


    Total matched on this event:€600,710
    Betting summary - Volume:€97,765
    Last price matched: 4.9

    The Betfair market knows.

    I got on at 9.0. Still value to be had with Katie Hopkins being false favourite; creating nice market distortion on the real favourite.

    Expect a flip flop within the next week.

    I am in balls deep on this one personally. It will be my biggest ever win when it comes off Friday 6th February; 5 times my personal record.


  • #3
    MonkstownHoop
    Registered Users Posts: 3,196 ✭✭✭MonkstownHoop


    Bigger than your Costa book one?


  • #4
    insidertips
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31 ✭insidertips


    MonkstownHoop wrote: »
    Bigger than your Costa book one?

    The Ali Smith and This Morning bets are nothing. But what can one do? The markets aren't available on exchange, only sportsbook. So short odds with capped limits.
    And now even the Costa market has been pulled. The market already knows the result, and so do the bookies.
    When one sees odds that short early on, its insider money being lumped on.
    Modest bets on these short odds capped markets are just a warm up for me.
    The heavyweight exchange bets such as Chegin to win CBB; that is where the real profit is made. More risk, but more profit.
    One has the option of spreading over 10 online bookies with accounts to do the same thing of course, but eventually ones accounts are limited and suspended one by one.
    So now its just the exchange left for me. I will only use sportsbook when I am hungry to get pre-market odds before it goes live on exchange. Sometimes one doesn't get the option though.


  • #5
    insidertips
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 31 ✭insidertips


    Well that was an unexpected twist.
    I thought the Channel 5 producers would swap Periz for someone else.
    Saving Hopkins for Callum was a shock.
    Tough one to call on Friday so, but I reckon its Callum out. Perez is a false favourite to go.


  • #6
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Keith Chegwin now 'joint 2nd fav' to win, drifting out towards x6.8. Still best from of a bad bunch of folks.
    Katie Price could be on the way out sooner, judging from today's newspaper articles...


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  • #7
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Cheggers drifted way out to x9 yesterday, but is back in again at x4.5.

    KP's latest revelations didn't go down too well, drifting, she wants the UKtaxpayers to pay her taxi fees...

    Cheggers is like the sensible (3rd) long-lost brother from the Chuckle Brothers, still think he'll win.


  • #8
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    Gregory Uptight Gunshot wrote: »
    Cheggers drifted way out to x9 yesterday, but is back in again at x4.5.

    KP's latest revelations didn't go down too well, drifting, she wants the UKtaxpayers to pay her taxi fees...

    Cheggers is like the sensible (3rd) long-lost brother from the Chuckle Brothers, still think he'll win.

    hope for OP's sake he does win.having backed one "cert" already(book awards) and lost he cant afford another having lumped boyhood at 1.2 for an oscar(now nearly evens).

    he wont have a pot to whizz in if this one gets turned over:eek:


  • #9
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    True indeed, always prefer when possible to e/w accum with these Novelty markets,
    OP got a great price at x9, seen CBB for 5 mins today, that Perez fella needs sedatives fast.

    AFAIK only StanJames allow a bit of a mix-up. Otherwise single markets.
    Boyhood way too short at x1.2, but hard to imagine it not winning.

    What's next insidertips, any inside tips?

    Wildcard ---> SportingBet is offering UKIP x151 for the most seats, elsewhere x20-30, sure ye never know...
    Safe one here ----> Ed Sheeran - X for BRITBestAlbum x1.5 89.19% pop!


  • #10
    duckysauce
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    Gregory Uptight Gunshot wrote: »
    True indeed, always prefer when possible to e/w accum with these Novelty markets,
    OP got a great price at x9, seen CBB for 5 mins today, that Perez fella needs sedatives fast.

    AFAIK only StanJames allow a bit of a mix-up. Otherwise single markets.
    Boyhood way too short at x1.2, but hard to imagine it not winning.

    What's next insidertips, any inside tips?

    Wildcard ---> SportingBet is offering UKIP x151 for the most seats, elsewhere x20-30, sure ye never know...
    Safe one here ----> Ed Sheeran - X for BRITBestAlbum x1.5 89.19% pop!


    he is banned -- you heard it here first :p


  • #11
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    out to 8 again on betfair. wonder if hes still as confident of being the best tipster. as it stands the mrs brown boys bet stumbled over the line when he said it was buying money. but a wins a win. the book prize "cert" that he lumped on lost. and the biggest bet hes had was on the oscars which he lumped sub 1.2 which went out to 6/4 a week later.

    no surprise to see he hasnt been back here since. nothing wrong with giving tips that lose. we all do it. but to claim they are all certs to win and that "Odds are 1.06 now on Betfair, I expect 1.01 on finals night.
    For odds to be that short at this stage, it means the results have already been leaked to insiders.
    Boyhood has already won it."

    the good news is that its likely he never bet more than a few quid on these. in another thread he claims hes on the dole for the last few years and re-used envelopes and postage stamps. very unlikely hes going around throwing 10k on novelty markets like the oscars. hope ur 20k bet comes in tonight on chegg but i doubt we will see a screenoshot if it does


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  • #12
    whiteshorts
    Site Banned Posts: 880 ✭✭✭whiteshorts


    One thing that always strikes me is, would any poster with only a few posts be involved in the Betfair market by having backed them already and then trying to lay it off at much lower prices after "tipping it up?
    Tipping up something on a thread means a lot of people would read the posts and may be influenced by what people say.
    I would always take tips/recommendations with a pinch of salt unless I knew them or have seen the poster before.


  • #13
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    whiteshorts wrote: »
    One thing that always strikes me is, would any poster with only a few posts be involved in the Betfair market by having backed them already and then trying to lay it off at much lower prices after "tipping it up?
    Tipping up something on a thread means a lot of people would read the posts and may be influenced by what people say.
    I would always take tips/recommendations with a pinch of salt unless I knew them or have seen the poster before.

    he claimed in another thread that he sets up fake accounts to try and influence markets. twitter accounts etc. it might have worked a few yrs ago but it will have little effect today. there wasnt even a market up for the book prize where he lost his dough. it was only on the sportsbook. his tips on here seem genuine but the guys crazy if he thinks we believe he had 2k on the mrs browns boys bet or stands to win 23 k if his cheg big bro bet wins tonight.

    he was already exposed for claiming he took certain prices which someone proved impossible. takes a special kind of person to lie about the bets they make and the stake sizes. this guy takes the biscuit.


  • #14
    whiteshorts
    Site Banned Posts: 880 ✭✭✭whiteshorts


    I heard a story some years ago about a journalist that used to back next team manager and then put a story in his paper saying the player he backed was in contact/approached/going to get the job etc and the price would collapse on Betfair.
    One of the people laying that potential manager at way lower prices was the same said journo!
    No idea if it was true or not but it would be easy enough to do.


  • #15
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    4th place for keithy!


  • #16
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Thanks again insidertips lol.

    He may have had a chance, and decent price at x9, as the rest were terribly awful. Alas the C2/D/E2 housewives of Engerlande are going for the slightly more aesthetic C'Best. Was tempted, but only so many books offer novelties as an e/w add-on to the usual 5+fold.

    Next thing of interest would be Ed Sherrydins for one of the main Brit awards, too short currently x1.5 (no price left on Betfair).
    Hard to accum but if it goes near x3 before 23rd Feb would be of interest. SamSmith is sh1yte.


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