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'Novelty' Large Movements

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  • 12-02-2014 2:49am
    #1
    Joe Doe
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭


    (not of the bowel), but the 'novelty bet markets' for tv/specials etc.

    Noticed the price for Oscars BP 2014 (Dallas Buyers Club) 'dropping like it was hot over' 24/48hrs, recently the biggest mover was Boyles e.g.

    Monday with best price 1/125 to current worst price 1/13 (oddschecker).

    Still available averaging 20/1, managed to capture at around 66/1 via ladbrookes & stanjames (accums). No interest in the film, just large market trending for an easy buckaroo or two tagged as wild card onto a safe accumulator...
    Tagged:


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    #2
    sawdoubters
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭sawdoubters


    American Hustle
    Captain Phillips
    Dallas Buyers Club
    Gravity
    Her
    Nebraska
    Philomena
    12 Years a Slave
    The Wolf of Wall Street


    http://www.indiewire.com/article/2014-oscar-predictions-best-picture

    I don't see your movie winning

    http://popstyle.ew.com/2014/02/11/oscars-2014-dallas-buyers-club-makeup/

    the aids story has played out


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    #3
    Joe Doe
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Joe Doe


    yep live prices link to oddschecker: http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture

    '12 Years a Slave' a very firm fav, with 'Gravity' the 2nd fav, (currently).

    DBC just went joint 3rd now, along with the A'Hussle.

    Still can't ignore a market price drop by 89.6% in such a short time, must of got some rave reviews or something.

    Results for 86th Academy Awards nominees due 2 March 2014 — Host: Ellen DeGeneres, somewhere around Holywood land.

    // pity more bookie don't offer accums de novelties, generally only singles market.


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    #4
    Joe Doe
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Joe Doe


    I don't see your movie winning http://popstyle.ew.com/2014/02/11/oscars-2014-dallas-buyers-club-makeup/

    true dat indeed, no interest in watching it, "only interest was the 48hr / 90% price shift indicating a 'good odds exchange steamer candidate" for le wild-card add-on; on the back of a safe four-way accum' :)

    Sure that yoke Ellen DeGeneres might hotswap the golden envelope at the podium.


  • Options
    #5
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,615 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Over the years I have been dragged into those same markets having bets without knowing anything about it but just following the money and most have lost, next manager markets is another one for the dustbin.

    The number of movers is massive in those markets and sometimes it can be just down to one bookie/punter cutting/opening a position and then all the others "follow the money" and the price collapses.
    The best time to have a bet on them is just before the announcement(s)
    as the people "in the know" are having their bets in it, just have to figure out which move is the correct.


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    #6
    Joe Doe
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Joe Doe


    True enough, remember the market for the pope man went short just 4-6hrs before they lit the fire (smoke signals) with Jorge Mario Bergoglio going 12/1 from 60/1.

    TheDBC is still going short, lowest price now x11 (decimal) with Victor/WHill, strangely drifting on b'fair x25 (BP), with a mean average circa x15.

    As mentioned would only ever tag a pre/early high price novelty steamer onto a very safe accum, so e.g. 4-fold with triple nap leaves good chance of tri-return anyway. With this 4th 'x100 wild card' as a possible multiplier bonus for only coupla dolla...

    AFAIK only S'James frequently allow novelties to be added onto accums, otherwise it's generally a single market and rarely available as e/w option.

    // Gravity was ok, but no way should it win best picture award due to severely limited content matter.

    * oddity: Ladbrookes (don't like the ux on this site at all) has de-listed TheDBC from their coupons for B'Pic, but it's oddly still avail via OddsC' popup at a good price (x21) *


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  • Options
    #7
    whiteshorts
    Site Banned Posts: 880 ✭✭✭whiteshorts


    Yeah most bookies only allow singles for obvious reasons.


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    #8
    Joe Doe
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Joe Doe


    Wise indeed, pity though :) Still I don't mind taking money from stanleyjameson and few other english bookies via 'wild card add-ons' to accums.

    Interestingly also on the news yesterday was report than 'CNN accidentally revealed the Oscars' best actor winner'.

    Refelcted now as cooling price on the OddsCkr. (Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf Of Wall Street) @ x6 circa.

    Take this with the pinch of salt of course, could be a bit of reverse psychology playing out or a quickie promo as the golden statues are dished out next month.

    // The only novelty I missed recently (purely only on strength of subject matter, rather than any market moves) was a long shot: @x40 James Blake - Overgrown for the Mercury Music prize. Couldn't remember the chaps name, when at coupon, ah!.... A brilliant album and the deserved outside winner. There was no pre-market price indicatiors on this event, whatsoever.


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    #9
    Deco99
    Registered Users Posts: 1,642 ✭✭✭Deco99


    I think Dallas Buyers club has steamed in only cause it is recently released. Matthew Mconaughey has best actor wrapped up. Only reason Leo has come in is cause of slip up but seems voting hasnt started its not true. Roll on the Mcconnassaince 3/1.


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    #10
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,615 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Rumour mill will see some major price changes before the results.

    No idea if true or not but over the years I have heard about certain journalists who have been known to write an article "tipping" up a "bet of the day" or "stonewalled winner" and the author has had a position on the exchanges
    and then will lay back the position after the moves have happened at a much lower price!


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