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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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Comments

  • #452
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    starskey77 wrote: »
    jaffusmax your top in my book when it comes to predictions

    The only prediction I will make is of a riot if there is no snow this year! Ill leave LRF's to Ken Ring and MTC.

    Ill keep supplying links to reliable forecasting sources for people to make their own minds up. I believe people should learn the basic principles of weather modeling and other predictive methods then decide for themselve. Although always keep in mind that after 10 days out no one really knows what will happen with the weather.

    To many people just can't seem to admit when they just don't know what will happen!


  • #453
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Villain wrote: »
    Not providing such long range forecasts at all would be better imo, it saddens me when the likes of Electric Ireland email customers saying you predicted a cold winter, many people don't realise that you can't forecast that far ahead and believe these forecasts!

    I know you dont like or give much credence to Kens work or methods but I think it will be best for everyone if you leave it at that for now , its going to take things off topic ,

    As far I see Ken is trying to change his posting style which should steer him away from much confrontation and I suggest you do the same.

    There will be plenty of time at the end of the winter for you to look at verification stats on his work or MT's or any other LRF,

    Thanks


  • #454
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    My Winter 2013/2014 forecast :

    Deflated-Santa.jpg


  • #455
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    I notice a bit of melted/melting snow in front of that Santa ... Maq, you're expecting snow before/around Christmas then?

    Joe B. seems to be going with a very harsh, but late, winter for Europe - I can't find anything though to say that the cold will extend to Ireland/UK.. linky ---> http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/ (from about 7mins onward he talks about Europe)


  • #456
    up for anything
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,790 ✭✭✭up for anything


    maquiladora wrote: »
    My Winter 2013/2014 forecast :

    Deflated-Santa.jpg


    Good God! Santa slips on slush and dies. My kids will be devastated. :(:(


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  • #457
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    It's no wonder it's quiet here. The models are looking grim for anyone hoping for early cold. High pressure firmly over southern europe right throughout the 6z GFS run with Ireland in a non-stop westerly/southwesterly air flow


  • #458
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    It's no wonder it's quiet here. The models are looking grim for anyone hoping for early cold. High pressure firmly over southern europe right throughout the 6z GFS run with Ireland in a non-stop westerly/southwesterly air flow

    what about mid-November? I heard there was a cold snap expected.


  • #459
    Kenring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Spring Onion wrote: »
    what about mid-November? I heard there was a cold snap expected.
    Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.


  • #460
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Kenring wrote: »
    Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.

    Why these two specific counties :eek:


  • #461
    Kenring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Why these two specific counties :eek:
    Sorry, they were just examples, could be others too.


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  • #462
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    Kenring wrote: »
    Cold is relative. The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow in counties like Kerry and Roscommon, but in my opinion a real cold snap won't be until the last days of November. I think snow is unlikely in Britain and Scotland until after mid December.

    Anytime in November will do me. I love an early winter.
    I am in Galway so not far from Roscommon and I will be aiming for higher ground anyway around then full moon.

    Thanks Ken!


  • #463
    finnharpsboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,173 ✭✭✭finnharpsboy


    its getting closer to us
    https://twitter.com/LucyWeather/status/396664720251297792


  • #464
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭jaffusmax




    Xmas Update

    Note: This is the CFS so calm down :)


  • #465
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    funny how you never see a xmas forecast predicting 15c and southerly winds,
    :rolleyes:


  • #466
    Kenring
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    funny how you never see a xmas forecast predicting 15c and southerly winds,
    :rolleyes:
    You do where I live :D


  • #467
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,387 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    jaffusmax wrote: »


    Xmas Update

    Note: This is the CFS so calm down :)

    two comments on that. firstly that was a well presented forecast. who is he?

    secondly i have kept an eye on cfs for the last two winters and have found it surprisingly good at trends.....so bring on this xmas eve blizzard!


  • #468
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,492 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    jaffusmax wrote: »


    Xmas Update

    Note: This is the CFS so calm down :)

    What a dream that would be :D


  • #469
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭jaffusmax




    His name is Gavin Partidge and I enjoy his science based forecasts!

    Cold USA jury still out on Europe!


  • #470
    vickers209
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Looks like a the first good frost of the winter tonight!

    1395239_542165239208413_1168048904_n.png


  • #471
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora




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  • #472
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Winter is here! Heavy rain and hail shower that came out of the blue


  • #473
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Winter is here! Heavy rain and hail shower that came out of the blue

    Looking at the radar, it is clear that it's the first bit of Irish sea convection :P


  • #474
    Spring Onion
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭Spring Onion


    Lovely frost last night. The 1st decent frost of the year really cheers me up.
    Something very cleansing about it.


  • #475
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,453 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Spring Onion wrote: »
    Lovely frost last night. The 1st decent frost of the year really cheers me up.
    Something very cleansing about it.

    Yeah exactly, also hardens up the doggy poop so in the morning its handy to clear it up!
    Going out in the summer heatwave was horrible! (i wont go into details)


  • #476
    Mesut Ozil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 70 ✭✭Mesut Ozil


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yeah exactly, also hardens up the doggy poop so in the morning its handy to clear it up!
    Going out in the summer heatwave was horrible! (i wont go into details)

    Why, is your dog's shít made from ice cream or something? I always find it easier to do in the Summer because they're dried out.


  • #477
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Winter has arrived in the mountains in southern Norway over the weekend. This is at 860m ASL

    foto80736.jpg

    foto80730.jpg

    Just look at the colour of those clouds!

    From the excellent photo blog @ http://home.online.no/~sulvund/Voss_Now/


  • #478
    xXxkorixXx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 438 ✭✭xXxkorixXx


    dose anyone know if this winter is going to be freezing cold :) and or will it snow really hope so think im the only person in the world who hates summer and warm weather. i LOVE the cold and dark nights :) but then again....i love to have the fire lighting and the heat on when its cold out lmao! so what are people pridictions for winter 2013?? c'mon make me happy! cold weather :D


  • #479
    tylercollins
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    xXxkorixXx wrote: »
    dose anyone know if this winter is going to be freezing cold :)

    no one knows!


  • #480
    dexter647
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,221 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Although at present the models are showing no signs at all of any cold weather for the foreseeable future I thought i'd remind you of this exact day in 2010....
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056080007 ...Early days yet;)


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  • #481
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Early days indeed, and I guess I'm not the only one grasping at straws to find proof that this year could just be like 2010...without saying it definitely will be the same... see here ---> http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87336204&postcount=7


This discussion has been closed.
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