Aussie dollar falling

catbear · 29-08-2013 5:13am

danotroy wrote: »

The dollar has been falling against the us dollar quite about over the last few months. Should I be changing my dollars into USA dollars now or should i wait, what factors are at play?

The US has being creating money to support its economy, that money has been flowing into the asian markets looking for a greater return than back in the US. One direct of way of investing in China was via australia, hence the Aus$ ascent on the Chinese boom and now its descent.

In response to strengthening in the US economy that money creation scheme is being reduced (tapering), the Federal reserve mandate was use all means to reduce US unemployment to under 7% (there are many disagreements about what now constitutes full employment and whether intervention rather than debt destruction is leading a recovery but that's a debate for another forum)

China was the driving force of the Aus mining boom but China is now trying to develop its domestic economy to move away from weakening export growth. As 38% of Aus exports are to China any slowdown has a big effect.

As more Aus mines come into operation increased supply puts downward pressure on ore prices, plus the collapse of the rupee makes Indian ore a cheaper alternative.

If you're staying long term all this means is that it may be time to start thinking about inflation, maybe consider snapping up a diesel car or reconsider taking that job with the long commute!

I'm inclined to believe the aus$ will get weaker, I've been sending money to € all year and as I'm uncommitted to australia I'll continue to do so until either work finishes up or we move on.

If Australia suffers its own financial panic then the pacific peso will tank, it went to €.50 back in 08. Currently Australian banks are the most exposed to property debt in the world. Feeling lucky?

http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/exposure-to-housing-could-come-back-to-bite-us-20130402-2h42v.html

sin_city · 29-08-2013 8:15am

Yes, due the fact that people believe the US economy is improving, money is leaving commodity markets.

The US economy is not on the mend and the 10 year T note is increasing. I don't believe there will be a Taper and even if there is they are still printing a huge amount of money. Whether it's 75 billion or whatever.

Anyway, people believe the US is improving so the sheep are leaving the AUD.

I would be surprised to see it hit 50 cents in euros but who knows...60 is possible but I would say 70 is more likely for me.

amg-slurp · 29-08-2013 10:25am

For someone who is moving to Oz in November for a year or so, is now a good time to transfer funds to my Oz bank account? Or will it get any lower?
Advise? (Other than don't go to Oz :O )

c0rk3r · 29-08-2013 11:02am

Well fúck me.

I needed to go home a few months ago when the exchange rate was 0.74 or 76. I may be heading home permanently in the coming months (i say permanently but i mean jumping ship to another country like a nomad). So it looks like in that space of time with the savings ive made here that ive lost a couple of thousand in the exchange rate. Well... if i had of moved my funds a few months ago.

On the bright side i have 85euro at the end of my bed which is worth a lot more in dollars now, Silver lining and all that

sin_city · 30-08-2013 12:17am

amg-slurp wrote: »

For someone who is moving to Oz in November for a year or so, is now a good time to transfer funds to my Oz bank account? Or will it get any lower?
Advise? (Other than don't go to Oz :O )

Why don't you do 50% now and 50% later?

I has dropped a lot so you've saved a lot of cash already.

sin_city · 04-09-2013 3:12am

Back up to 69 cents from 67 a few days ago.

the flananator · 04-09-2013 3:21am

Pretty good news. Is it linked to the strong manufacturing data coming out of China? Could we see it rise over .70 once more?

purcela · 04-09-2013 3:25am

At 0.6871 now on Currencyfair

catbear · 04-09-2013 3:28am

the flananator wrote: »

Pretty good news. Is it linked to the strong manufacturing data coming out of China? Could we see it rise over .70 once more?

Don't know, few believe what news comes out of China. One theory I read was that currencies like the Rupee devaluing has seen a regional flow back into the Aus dollar.
Here's hoping for .70

mise_me_fein3 · 04-09-2013 4:03am

The RBA held rates. That's the primary reason

jank · 04-09-2013 4:30pm

Also, the libs are about to be elected into power, expect an increase of economic activity and a boast to the stock market as a result in the short term anyway.

sin_city · 05-09-2013 3:11am

Edging above 69.5. If it breaks 70 cents I think I will consolidate

catbear · 10-09-2013 6:40am

Nearly at .70!

Good news reports from China and Fed tapering looking less likely, I wonder how much upside we'll get. I'd love if it held in there until I'm cashing out my super!

sin_city · 10-09-2013 11:56pm

Fed is never gonna taper. Wud be good to see the Aussie get to 75 cents again. Still hard to know what will happen. I expect it will stay above 70 cents for a while

Timistry · 16-09-2013 12:24pm

Rumours are that the US will start to decrese the amount of bonds it is buying. What effect will that have on the value of the dollar vs. the euro?

Timistry · 16-09-2013 12:25pm

Rumours are that the US will start to decrease the amount of bonds it is buying. What effect will that have on the value of the dollar vs. the euro?

catbear · 16-09-2013 2:15pm

Depends on where you heard the rumour, was in a pub or at a horse fair?

If they taper (new fed chairman candidate seems slash happy) then Aussie dollar may drop but it may also rise as Australia becomes safe haven in asia; see stories about Chinese buying up Sydney property.

I pretty sure it will rain in Perth tomorrow.

Edit to add: Larry Summers has ruled himself out of the Fed race, maybe the impending WWIII is driving cash this way, f**ked if I know!

sin_city · 16-09-2013 2:47pm

You can't say you're not going to Taper because you can't say endless money printing is the policy.....even if it is the policy.

I don't think they will taper. Just as people realize the war propaganda against Syria is BS, they are also realizing the "recovery" in the US is too.

The markets are all messed up with so much uncertainty but the AUD should stay at least where it is against the USD. Against the Euro....hard to know but I as I said it seems to have found a level off area around .70cents

catbear · 16-09-2013 3:35pm

sin_city wrote: »

Against the Euro....hard to know but I as I said it seems to have found a level off area around .70cents

Suits me if you're are right but I still think the Aussie $ is due another drop although it's probably postponed for now thanks again to China: although this time it's indirectly.

the flananator · 19-09-2013 9:40am

Its reached the golden .70

Time to cash out, or will it continue to rise?

aido79 · 19-09-2013 1:24pm

the flananator wrote: »

Its reached the golden .70

Time to cash out, or will it continue to rise?

If it gets to .71 you'll get an extra €10 for every $1000...woohoo

Seriously though unless you have a lot of money small changes in exchange rates aren't going to make a lot of difference.

catbear · 19-09-2013 1:42pm

aido79 wrote: »

If it gets to .71 you'll get an extra €10 for every $1000...woohoo

Seriously though unless you have a lot of money small changes in exchange rates aren't going to make a lot of difference.

Having said that I may be cashing out my super early next year and the difference between .71 and .66 or lower won't be small change.

Nobody wants the Fed job so no change in there. China? Again I say who trusts information out of China other than trade flows at the docks.

Apart from that the only other factor affecting the Aus$ is the domestic debt market and the way that bulls are increasingly becoming bears makes for interesting times ahead.

I don't think it will rain in perth tomorrow.

ifeelill · 19-09-2013 11:19pm

catbear wrote: »

Having said that I may be cashing out my super early next year and the difference between .71 and .66 or lower won't be small change.

Nobody wants the Fed job so no change in there. China? Again I say who trusts information out of China other than trade flows at the docks.

Apart from that the only other factor affecting the Aus$ is the domestic debt market and the way that bulls are increasingly becoming bears makes for interesting times ahead.

I don't think it will rain in perth tomorrow.

what ?

catbear · 20-09-2013 12:24am

ifeelill wrote: »

what ?

I was wrong, there's rain around!

res ipsa · 21-09-2013 5:39am

6/1 odds of a rate cut Tuesday week.
If the RBA is serious about weakening the $AUD it will cut.

sin_city · 21-09-2013 4:15pm

res ipsa wrote: »

6/1 odds of a rate cut Tuesday week.
If the RBA is serious about weakening the $AUD it will cut.

Can't beat a good game of currency wars :eek:

hussey · 18-10-2013 1:23am

finally broke .70 in the last few days!

Legend100 · 18-10-2013 1:50am

yeah bit the bullet and send some savings home this week (got it at 0.70150

i check it continuously on currency fair and there was actually a short time on Wednesday where the rate there was higher than the official bank rate - not sure how that can happen

catbear · 18-10-2013 1:55am

Legend100 wrote: »

i check it continuously on currency fair and there was actually a short time on Wednesday where the rate there was higher than the official bank rate - not sure how that can happen

When you say "official bank rate", do you mean one of the street banks like CBA, NAB?

Legend100 · 18-10-2013 1:56am

catbear wrote: »

When you say "official bank rate", do you mean one of the street banks like CBA, NAB?

market rate from bloomberg

Aussie dollar falling

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