Log to the base e

seklly · 24-08-2013 8:15pm

Juventus pushing forward in this one, they have all the possession.

€20 on Juventus HT @ 7/4
L -€20

Current Bank: €292.28

seklly · 26-08-2013 10:44am

Had a few bets yesterday, up and down, was out and about so no chance to post, the shock with Cardiff winning cost me a few quid!

€50 PSG @ 1/2
W +€25

€30 PSG-1 @ 13/10
L -€30

€20 Mayo-3.5 @ 3/4
W +€15

€25 Spurs @ 8/11
W +€18.19

€25 Man City-1 @ 6/5
L -€25

€20 Man City/Spurs/Inter/PSG @ ~4/1
L -€20 (3/4 win)

Current Bank: €275.47

seklly · 26-08-2013 10:57am

One bet this evening in the Man Utd v Chelsea match, It's a hard match to call either way, I think it might end up in a draw, evens for RVP to score is nice as well.

Looking at the cards market, Martin Atkinson takes charge of this match and he has dished out 5 cards or less in 18 of his last 20 matches.

Both Chelsea matches this season and Uniteds one last weekend have also had 5 cards or less.

Looking at the head to head, the last 4 matches between these two have had 5 cards or less.

Also last season, United matches averaged 28 points at home while Chelsea matches averaged 37.5 points away.

So the stats point to 5 cards or less which I will take at 11/10 on Bet365, I will be taking advantage of their free in-play bet as well so will be placing €100 on with €50 refunded if it doesn't come in. So essentially I'm getting 11/5 on this outcome.

€50 Under 5.5 Cards @ 11/10
€50 Under 5.5 Cards @ 5/6 (in-play - refund if loses)
W +€96.67

Current Bank: €225.47

seklly · 26-08-2013 10:36pm

Very boring match, they both looked happy with the draw, Chelsea more so. The bet went as expected with only 2 yellows given so happy with that.

Current Bank: €372.14

seklly · 27-08-2013 7:28pm

One for tonight, Liverpool fielding a strong team in the league cup and are strong defensively taking on League 1 club Notts County.

€25 Liverpool Win to Nil @ 5/6

Current Bank: €347.14

seklly · 29-08-2013 11:27pm

Last one lost, one bet for the weekend as I'm off for a picnic tomorrow! I think there'll be a backlash from Man City after the loss to Cardiff. Although I did think Cardiff were quite impressive at home to them, I don't think anyone will have an easy time there this year. And Dortmund have started well this season.

€20 Man City-1/Cardiff DC/Dortmund Treble @ 13/5

Current Bank: €327.14

seklly · 02-09-2013 1:52pm

Last one was a winner, needed a 90th minute goal from Yaya Toure but I'll take that.

W +€52

Current Bank: €399.14

seklly · 06-09-2013 4:17pm

In the World Cup Qualifiers tonight I'm going with the "minnows", hoping they can keep it relatively tight at home to stronger opposition.

€25 Finland+3/Northern Ireland+3/Liechenstein+3/Georgia+3 Fourfold @ ~9/5
W +€44.74

Current Bank: €374.14

seklly · 06-09-2013 6:45pm

Another one for tonight, two strong teams against weaker opposition. Staying away from the Ireland match, just want to (hopefully) enjoy watching that one!!

€30 Germany/Belgium Double @ ~11/10
W +€33.34

Current Bank: €344.14

seklly · 06-09-2013 10:46pm

Germany and Belgium had easy victories.

With the "minnows", Georgia played out a goalless draw with France, Liechenstein lost by 1 to Greece and Finland and NI lost by 2 to Spain and Portugal.

So all bets win tonight.

Current Bank: €477.22

seklly · 13-09-2013 11:54pm

In form Arsenal to beat Sunderland who haven't been performing well. O'Shea is suspended and I'd like to see new signing Oil play some part which I'm sure Giroud will be looking forward to as well. In the end I think we'll have too much for them.

€30 Arsenal win @ 4/6
W +€20

Current Bank: €447.22

seklly · 14-09-2013 7:35pm

Arsenal win as expected with Ozil and Giroud linking up for the first. Almost doubled my initial deposit at this stage and the bonus will be released once I wager another €20.

Current Bank: €497.22

seklly · 15-09-2013 3:47pm

I fancy Southampton to nick the win here and also think it could be a low scoring affair. West Ham have a number of injuries to attacking players and every one of Southampton's and West Ham's premier league matches this season have gone under 2.5 goals so will take a chance on that.

€30 Under 2.5 Goals @ 19/20
W +€28.50

Current Bank: €467.22

seklly · 15-09-2013 7:01pm

Winner, game finished 0-0. Also, the bonus requirements have now been met so that €100 is now withdrawable.

Current Bank: €525.72

seklly · 16-09-2013 7:40pm

Speculative one for this evening, expecting another low scoring match. Sturridge and Liverpool in good form.

€5 Sturridge to score and Liverpool win 1-0 Scorecast @ 25/1
L -€5

Current Bank: €520.72

seklly · 18-09-2013 2:18pm

Got the last one wrong! Although Sturridge did score.

Looking at the cards market tonight in the Chelsea v Basel match later (thanks to Fonze07 in the tips thread for highlighting it).

The ref in tonight's match has dished out 4 or more cards in 49 of his last 51 matches. Chelsea also played Basel twice earlier in the year in the Europa league and there were 4 cards in one match and 5 in the other.

€50 Over 3.5 Cards @ 4/5
L -€50

Current bank: €470.72

seklly · 18-09-2013 5:16pm

Another one for tonight, Arsenal have been good to me recently and I think this match might suit them. I expect a cagey start but it should open up and there'll be likely chances at both ends. Arsenal won the same fixture the last time these 2 sides met and if we're to get out of this difficult group we really need to be going for the win tonight.

€20 Arsenal Win @ 13/10
W +€26

Current Bank: €450.72

seklly · 18-09-2013 9:46pm

Only 2 cards in the Chelsea match with a shock result as well with Chelsea losing 2-1. Arsenal win again to keep the away run going, another very good performance from Ramsey.

Current Bank €496.72

seklly · 19-09-2013 7:47pm

Going with Genk tonight in the Europa League. They're in good form and are unbeaten in their last 5 away Europa League matches.

€25 Genk Double Chance @ 8/5
W +€40

Current Bank: €471.72

seklly · 19-09-2013 10:27pm

Genk win 1-0

Current Bank: €536.72

seklly · 20-09-2013 8:48pm

OK so I'm 50 bets in and we're just over the month mark so time for some analysis!

Bets 50
Wins 23
Loses 27

Odds Range Odds<2 2<=Odds<=3 3<Odds
Win 12 10 1
Loss 7 8 12
Total 19 18 13

Av Stake €29.47 €23.61 €9.92
Av Odds 1.81 2.42 25.25
Expected B/E Strike Rate 55.30% 41.38% 3.96%
Actual Strike Rate 63.16% 55.56% 7.69%

Total Staked €1,114.00
Total Returned €1,300.72
Profit €186.72 + €100 (Bonus)
ROI 16.76%

Bet Type Number Wins Losses
Single 34 20 14
Double 6 1 5
Treble 4 1 3
4-fold 2 1 1
5-fold 1 0 1
6-fold 2 0 2
9-fold 1 0 1

So it looks like the singles are the most successful bet type. Although a few of those multiples were close to coming off but as they say there's always one that lets you down!

Happy with being in profit but would like to improve the strike rate and ROI.

seklly · 21-09-2013 11:38am

Over 2.5 Goals looks good in the Norwich v Villa match today. It has come in 5 times in Norwich's last 6 home premiership games and in the last 13 of Villa's away premiership games. Both sides should think they have a chance so don't expect to see them playing negatively as they should both be pushing for the win.

€30 Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/10
L -€30

Current Bank: €506.72

seklly · 21-09-2013 11:52am

I'm also putting my 3 fantasy football strikers into an anytime scorer bet, all 3 in good form and capable of getting on the scoresheet today.

€20 Outlay - €5 Benteke/Sturridge/Giroud Anytime Scorer Trixie @ 7/5, 10/11, 10/11
L -€20

Current Bank: €486.72

seklly · 22-09-2013 12:19am

Both bets above lose, Benteke going off injured early didn't help either bet, not a great week in the fantasy football either!!

Looking forward to tonight's UFC card although don't see anything too interesting bets wise. Think I'll put on a speculative one and sit back and enjoy it.

In the final 2 fights I thing the favourites are rightly favourites. Think Jones will probably win but putting a double on the outsiders, they've both got good knockout power and will likely try to keep it standing and connect with a big shot.

€5 Wineland/Gustafsson Double @ 35/1
L -€5

Current Bank: €481.72

seklly · 24-09-2013 7:39pm

Man City making a few changes tonight in the Capital One Cup but still have a strong team out and should cover the handicap with some of the second string looking to impress.

€30 Man City -1 @ 4/6
W +€20

Current Bank: €451.72

seklly · 24-09-2013 10:11pm

Easy 5-0 win for City, Jovetic impressed with a hat-trick.

Current Bank: €501.72

seklly · 25-09-2013 6:52pm

Capital One Cup again tonight, Suarez returns for Liverpool and will be chomping at the bit!

€20 Suarez Anytime Goalscorer @ 6/4
L -€20

€5 All 5 Away teams Win 5-fold @ ~88/1
L -€5

Current Balance: €476.72

seklly · 26-09-2013 7:23pm

Inter to beat Fiorentina tonight, they've both started the season well but Inter have an impressive head to head record and I fancy them to win this at home.

€33 Inter Win @ 10/11
W +€30

Current Bank: €443.72

seklly · 26-09-2013 9:53pm

They did it the hard way going 1-0 down but pulled it out of the bag!

Current Bank: €506.72

seklly · 28-09-2013 11:16am

One for tomorrow in the Reims v Monaco match, from the tips thread.

€40 Monaco Win @ 8/11
L -€40

Current Bank: €466.72

Log to the base e

Comments