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The Prince of Burma appreciation thread

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Comments

  • #1172
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Lolerpool being punted again against Swansea

    1.6+ earlier. 1.54 now

    1.51/1.52 now

    Win, lose or draw some people never learn.

    Hulk, any chance you've a tracker of P&L laying them to lose 100 quid every league game this year?


  • #1173
    ste2010
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    Pasting this from the tips thread given its the most active thread at the moment..could be worth an each way
    Al shababiya could well be laid up for the 3.50 in ffos las. Second off 12lb higher last year in the same race, has done nothing since an his record in ffos las reads 531P2. The worst of his form appears to be on the heavy side , his price however has already gone in from 22 > 14


  • #1174
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    No but I could calculate it probably. I've layed them in about 75% of the games. What's working is that every game they've won they've been very short, bar West Ham away where they were a shade odds against. I might run through it later when ive a bit of time


  • #1175
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    1.49, f*ck me


  • #1176
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    I fitted a model to premiership results from the start of the new format (1992-93)

    It calculates prices given the expected difference in number of points teams will earn per game. Problem is I'm not expert enough to assess relative strengths nor have I ever had enough time to use other analytic methods such as success rates

    What could be done however is work back wards. Use the prices available to calculate how many points you'd expect to separate 2 teams over the course of a season. Spreadsheet is on my PC in work (used GLM software to fit it) so I can't check now but wil do tomorrow morning.


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  • #1177
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    One I can remember off the top of my head is that if 2 teams of equal ability meet the home team is between 2.15 & 2.18 based on any models I've tried fit or seen others fit

    Pretty sure I heard a few bookies reps say they'd use 6/5 (2.2) over the years


  • #1178
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    One I can remember off the top of my head is that if 2 teams of equal ability meet the home team is between 2.15 & 2.18 based on any models I've tried fit or seen others fit

    Pretty sure I heard a few bookies reps say they'd use 6/5 (2.2) over the years

    11/10 on a home team with equal ability if betting to 110%, with no external factors. So yeah the 2.15 looks right


  • #1179
    fangee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 786 ✭✭✭fangee


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Lolerpool being punted again against Swansea

    1.6+ earlier. 1.54 now

    It's buying money toady. Liverpool will win comfortably.


  • #1180
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    fangee wrote: »
    It's buying money toady. Liverpool will win comfortably.

    So are you backing them at 1/2?


  • #1181
    fangee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 786 ✭✭✭fangee


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    So are you backing them at 1/2?

    I would if I wasn't abroad. It's recognising my IP and not allowing me to bet.

    Liverpool have been playing very well without getting the results they have deserved.

    Swansea players will have one eye on the final next weekend. I think they will be saving themselves and maybe protecting themselves for it too.

    I can see nothing but a comfortable victory for Liverpool. I expect Sturridge to make the difference. Again.

    I would be getting stuck in if I could.


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  • #1182
    ft9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Reckon Liverpool will do it comfortably, now Swansea have a B team out essentially. Sorry I didn't back Liverpool.


  • #1183
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    fangee wrote: »
    I would if I wasn't abroad. It's recognising my IP and not allowing me to bet.

    Liverpool have been playing very well without getting the results they have deserved.

    This is a myth. Possession does not mean they are playing well. And look at their results against mid-table sides. Stoke, Everton, Sunderland, West Brom etc. Granted Swansea's side changes that a bit. They will probably win but they don't have anywhere near the 70%+ win chance the odds are suggesting. They don't have that chance against any top level team, never mind a decent one like Swansea. You would have to be crazy to back that imo


  • #1184
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Colonel got confused and posted in the wrong thread! I'll do the honours
    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    For comparison Man U are obviously a far stronger team than Liverpool. Swansea are a better team than Reading.

    Man Utd are 1.28 to beat Reading. Anyone punting Liverpool at 1.42 needs to sit in a room on their own & think about it!!


  • #1185
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Colonel got confused and posted in the wrong thread! I'll do the honours

    Did I???

    That's old age!!!


  • #1186
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    This is a myth. Possession does not mean they are playing well. And look at their results against mid-table sides. Stoke, Everton, Sunderland, West Brom etc. Granted Swansea's side changes that a bit. They will probably win but they don't have anywhere near the 70%+ win chance the odds are suggesting. They don't have that chance against any top level team, never mind a decent one like Swansea. You would have to be crazy to back that imo

    Win or lose a prior probability of 70%+ is wrong IMO

    I'll look up tomorrow what I've estimated that to be wrt points differences per game/over a season


  • #1187
    ft9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Liverpool looking extremely comfortable, as predicted. Hope ye didn't go mad on the laying.


  • #1188
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    ft9 wrote: »
    Liverpool looking extremely comfortable, as predicted. Hope ye didn't go mad on the laying.

    It's grand, plenty behind it from laying them all year. They could win this 10-0, i'd still do the same again given the chance.


  • #1189
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    OUR YEAR NEXT YEAR FOR THE PL. YNWA


  • #1190
    ft9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    It's grand, plenty behind it from laying them all year. They could win this 10-0, i'd still do the same again given the chance.

    I considered starting to lay them myself, but I think you need to be selective in laying them and not just laying every game, although they are so unpredictable.

    Would you lay them again at the price against the same weakened team? I'd be surprised if you would.


  • #1191
    ft9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    How many chances does Sturridge want?


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  • #1192
    ft9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Sound man Stevie G!!!!!!! Letting Sturridge take the pen


  • #1193
    fangee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 786 ✭✭✭fangee


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    This is a myth. Possession does not mean they are playing well. And look at their results against mid-table sides. Stoke, Everton, Sunderland, West Brom etc. Granted Swansea's side changes that a bit. They will probably win but they don't have anywhere near the 70%+ win chance the odds are suggesting. They don't have that chance against any top level team, never mind a decent one like Swansea. You would have to be crazy to back that imo


    What is a myth ?

    I don't look at results. I look at the matches and make my decisions based on that.

    I don't analyse match reports or match stats. I analyse the game.


  • #1194
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,019 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    fangee wrote: »

    Liverpool have been playing very well without getting the results they have deserved.
    fangee wrote: »
    What is a myth ?

    I don't look at results. I look at the matches and make my decisions based on that.

    I don't analyse match reports or match stats. I analyse the game.

    Fair enough. Which games recently did Liverpool play where they didn't get the result they deserved?


  • #1195
    Overthelast
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Indian rifles 50's into 5/1 bumper at ffos las. Some punt


  • #1196
    Overthelast
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Overthelast wrote: »
    Indian rifles 50's into 5/1 bumper at ffos las. Some punt
    Well he got stuffed.


  • #1197
    SRFC
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    That was a serious professional gamble on Liverpool today I seen them at 8/13 with powers in the shop this morning and on the off they were smashed into 2/5,Rodgers the ex Swansea manager in charge aswell wouldnt be surpised if games like this came up in the match fixing probe because I dont know how people punted liverpool for millions with no worry what so ever even allowing for swansea team news ''they knew''.


  • #1198
    Slattsy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Oh how the weekend goes so quick.
    Have the Sunday night blues. Probably won't sleep even though I'm knackered.

    Great win for Liverpool today, looked like Barcelona at times.
    Next year is definitly our year. YNWA


  • #1199
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Finished that essay. Feel kinda bad for the fella who has to sit down and correct it. What an absolute pile of ****


  • #1200
    fangee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 786 ✭✭✭fangee


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Fair enough. Which games recently did Liverpool play where they didn't get the result they deserved?

    I don't know why you are restricting it to recently but the games against Arsenal, Man City and West Brom could/should easily have resulted in a 9 point haul for LFC.

    I think any football fan who watched these games will agree.

    Or maybe any rational football fan.


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  • #1201
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I didn't watch it but heard a few reports, were they not beat of the pitch by Brom


This discussion has been closed.
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