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Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

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Comments

  • #302
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Interesting link from Matthew hugo
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    Some continued fascinating & darn right impressive strat forecast charts for late Dec, as I highlighted earlier today - http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/12/384/npst30.png …


    More charts
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    From a cold GFS near the 21st to a potential 'storm' from the ECMWF near the 21st - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif … #funandgames


  • #303
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    That's because WO only goes as low at 950mb :eek::D

    So it's probably sub-940 and deepening there. Impressive.

    850 hpa winds are 90 knots sustained there, and that's with it limited at 950mb.

    The ESB would be counting their stock of replacement powerlines if that was 24 hours out.


  • #304
    srmambo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭srmambo


    Weathering wrote: »
    Interesting link from Matthew hugo
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    Some continued fascinating & darn right impressive strat forecast charts for late Dec, as I highlighted earlier today - http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/12/384/npst30.png …


    More charts
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    From a cold GFS near the 21st to a potential 'storm' from the ECMWF near the 21st - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif … #funandgames

    An exciting day before the Christmas holidays


  • #305
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Indeed. Feeling a bit more optimistic today


  • #306
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Interesting developments https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A91i1n-CQAEWqrK.png:large
    Pointing at a cold spell towards the end of December/January


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  • #307
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    232316.png


    ..... omgwtf.gif


    ... that is all...


  • #308
    Eden3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 142 ✭✭Eden3


    Weathering wrote: »
    Interesting link from Matthew hugo
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    Some continued fascinating & darn right impressive strat forecast charts for late Dec, as I highlighted earlier today - http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/12/384/npst30.png …


    More charts
    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    From a cold GFS near the 21st to a potential 'storm' from the ECMWF near the 21st - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif … #funandgames

    The ..... 21st .....??????!!!


  • #309
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Haha, yeah I tweeted back saying end of the world storm lol


  • #310
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Eden3 wrote: »
    The ..... 21st .....??????!!!

    Yes... 10days out which is FI times TWO! We'll potentially see a good bit of rain around Christmas and as mentioned many times and MT is also saying, a colder turn by the end of the year but Jan will be best for cold. It would be quite nice to see this cold continue as I am quite enjoying it. I'm left in no doubt whether to wear a jacket or carry one! Long may it continue.

    Can we leave FI for FI thread? Unless there is significant discussion and/evidence of a possible trend.

    Thanks


  • #311
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=250&y=40


    This colder trend near/beyond the 21st develops as this low clears E - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif … - perhaps a N or NE'ly flow as it clears.


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  • #312
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,084 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Happy Xmas Eve from the CFS :)

    cfs-2-306_gsz5.png


  • #313
    andrew
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,373 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Is there a particular reason as to why FI models tend to show much more extreme weather the further out they are? (errors in the model compound or something, leading to a greater variance as the length of the forecast increases?)


  • #314
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    andrew wrote: »
    Is there a particular reason as to why FI models tend to show much more extreme weather the further out they are? (errors in the model compound or something, leading to a greater variance as the length of the forecast increases?)

    When you get into FI, its in a lower resolution, so small features like secondary lows etc. don't get modelled, so you end up with a much smoother, less complex picture with less 'stuff' to complicate/temper things. That can lead to extreme solutions showing up.


  • #315
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,084 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    maquiladora wrote: »
    When you get into FI, its in a lower resolution, so small features like secondary lows etc. don't get modelled, so you end up with a much smoother, less complex picture with less 'stuff' to complicate/temper things. That can lead to extreme solutions showing up.

    Im a bit sad that the end of the world is gone from the ECM :(


  • #316
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,871 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Here's this mornings ensembles while we wait for this afternoons FI charts :rolleyes:

    t850Dublin.png


  • #317
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,871 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Even the FI weather gods are laughing at us :D

    h850t850eu.png


  • #318
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Hold that thought Jerry

    232632.png

    Bloody Easterly back on the agenda :eek:


  • #319
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,058 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Hold that thought Jerry

    232632.png

    Bloody Easterly back on the agenda :eek:

    it isnt really tho is it? here today gone tomorrow in FI world


  • #320
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Its on the 12z GFS too. Please dont do this to us again models...


  • #321
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    My bday next week,this would be my present
    I'll happily take a skiing holiday tho if anyones feeling festive, if it doesn't come off of course ha


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  • #322
    red_bairn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Its on the 12z GFS too. Please dont do this to us again models...

    lol. is this like the situation in last weeks models? :D


  • #323
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    red_bairn wrote: »
    lol. is this like the situation in last weeks models? :D

    Nah only one run showing something kinda interesting way off in FI, nothing to get excited about at all.


  • #324
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,084 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Come on down :)

    ECM0-216_ljt2.GIF

    ECM0-240_joa8.GIF


  • #325
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    For a while there the charts where showing nothing but the atlantic rolling in one after another. But some times they can work in your favour :)

    12122600_1600.gif

    GFS is having none of it tho

    12122606_1606.gif


  • #326
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    cfs-0-330_kda7.png

    cfs-2-330_ire0.png


  • #327
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    CFS has been stone wrong so far,so I wouldn't hold out hope for those charts,sweet and all as they are :(


  • #328
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    whitebriar wrote: »
    CFS has been stone wrong so far,so I wouldn't hold out hope for those charts,sweet and all as they are :(

    Ah i know, was only posting for the laugh.


  • #329
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,516 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    A bit of light at the end of the tunnel today in FI. Something to keep an eye on in the next few days. Hopefully it will deliver something interesting.


  • #330
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A 1 in 20 chance of a possible white christmas on the GFS ensembles.

    gens-14-1-180.png?18

    Not a great time for FI charts...


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  • #331
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    OOOOH that looks could. I love the spaghetti feature over Cork....pure Day After Tomorrow stuff for that lot down there. :D

    What were Perturbations 1-13 like???
    maquiladora wrote: »
    A 1 in 20 chance of a possible white christmas on the GFS ensembles.

    gens-14-1-180.png?18


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