All Ireland final bet, need advice/ suggestions ..

bazzare · 05-09-2012 6:44am #1

back in april i placed a 100 euro win single on Mayo to win the All Ireland at 18-1.

Now they are in the final i can either let it ride and go for broke hoping that Mayo win and this making 1800 Euro profit.

Or else i can play safe and choose to lay off some of my potential 1800 profit on Mayo winning and hedge some of that by backing Donegal to win. But the problem for me is that Donegals odds are just so bad.

Donegal are best price 8-15 or 1-2 to win the match itself and are as low as 2-5 to lift the tropy. Mayo are 7-4 this makes laying them kind of pointless as i would only end up making 450 Euro, should I choose to lay off half my profit.

What im looking for is to find a bet ( or combination of bets ) that will return me about 900 Euro if either Mayo or Donegal win.

Its a bit early yet and most bookies dont have the full range of markets up for the final, but ive been thinking maybe backing Donegals winning margin might be a solution.. e.g.. Donegal to win by 1-3 pts, ( at 13-5 ) or Donegal win by 4-6 pts ( currently at 7-2 )

But I would like to hear if anybody can see or point out any good bets on the game that will ensure that I end up with about equal money if either Donegal or Mayo win.

Ladbrokes also have a special at 8-11 which includes the game ending in a draw , and /or both teams winning by less than 4 points.

Cheers

myflipflops · 05-09-2012 8:11am

Two realistic options:

1 - Let it ride.

2 - Go onto Betfair and back Donegal at 1.5 (you should get layed that).

Getting invovled in margin bets etc is a very poor idea. Hedge directly on the outright market or don't hedge at all.

bazzare · 05-09-2012 12:24pm

Donegal to win -2pts Handicap is evens.

I could then back Donegal to win by 1pt and 2pts to cover all bases.

That way only a draw could scupper me.. but I could cover that aswell.

DB74 · 05-09-2012 12:31pm

If you back:

Donegal -2 pts @ 1/1
Donegal to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5
Draw @ 8/1

you're effectively dutching those 3 outcomes at combined odds of 1/8 which is far worse than just backing Donegal to win the trophy at 2/5

carman2011 · 05-09-2012 12:41pm

best price you will get is 1/2 on betfair for donegal to lift the trophy.
if u can get 1200 matched at this, u will guarantee 600 whoever wins.
this is the most u can guarantee at this time, based on the prices.
looking at combining points bets etc, will always lead to a worse overall price than a straight bet on donegal.

bazzare · 05-09-2012 4:16pm

I could wait until the game itself and then depending how its going I could wait and try and get a better price on Donegal in running

but that is assuming mayo go a few pts up and get a good start... it could also backfire if donegal start well..

Donegals price is so bad... theres no way they should be 2-5 favourites.. its a 2 horse race and dont forget mayo were beating the all Ireland champions in their own backyard by 10 pts on sunday until they got stagefight and almost lost it... Donegal are not going for 4 in a row....their league forrm was average

Boylesports have a special double where you can pick the 2 teams who will win all Ireland hurling and football.. and Donegal / kilkenny is 5-6.. might stick a few bob on that although that its also risky .

Cant believe that i got mayo at 18-1 yet im now fining it so hard to make a decent profit given Donegals crap price..

ft9 · 05-09-2012 5:58pm

You need to act on this before the game imo as I can't see any other result than a Donegal win.

Colonel Sanders · 05-09-2012 8:41pm

Tbh I'd never hedge just for the sake of it, I'd only ever place a bet if I believe the odds to be wrong

You don't believe their odds are wrong

You are surrendering a good bit of EV by the sounds of it.

If you are a punter who turns over a decent amount let it ride. If you're an occasional punter who doesn't want to leave a bundle of cash behind & can live with giving up EV then the only option is to just punt Donegal straight to lift the trophy

AngeGal · 05-09-2012 10:30pm

Donegal may win but I don't see it being a one sided affair, lock up a profit at half time imo.

zarquon · 06-09-2012 9:13am

I think Donegal are over valued in the market. Their odds should increase in-play and when they reach a satisfactory level you should lay off some of your potential winnings against Mayo.

finbarrk · 06-09-2012 11:26am

If I was you I would just put maybe €200 on Donegal just to cover your stake and cheer Mayo on.

premierstone · 06-09-2012 1:27pm

finbarrk wrote: »

If I was you I would just put maybe €200 on Donegal just to cover your stake and cheer Mayo on.

^^
This, you then essentially have an excellent value free bet on Mayo.

MrQ · 06-09-2012 1:47pm

finbarrk wrote: »

If I was you I would just put maybe €200 on Donegal just to cover your stake and cheer Mayo on.

I'd do this as well to be honest. You don't lose anything whatsoever and you've a free wager with a potential big reward. This was you can relax (relatively of course..) while you enjoy the game.

OnTheCounter · 06-09-2012 11:22pm

It depends on your own personal financial circumstances.

without knowing that the most ev play is to let it ride.

if it is a lot of cash to you then green up so you guarantee yourself a few hundred regardless of outcome by backing donegal & draw.

avoid the winning margin markets.

what the hell were you doing backing mayo at the start of the championship:)

FANTAPANTS · 06-09-2012 11:27pm

put it all on cavan to get knocked out 1st round of championship next year "ITS A SURE WINNER"

Luap · 06-09-2012 11:36pm

Sure putting €600 on donegal at 1/2 would be no fun.

OnTheCounter · 06-09-2012 11:39pm

Thats true, after all the best buzz is all duck or no dinner. Are you a man or wha?

m.j.w · 06-09-2012 11:46pm

I would not suggest putting anything on donegal at current prices, i do see them as favorites to win but not as big as they have been priced. Id let it ride and hope that mayo get a good start and then you could lay at a better price. This way you get a chance to see how its panning out and you might not have to lay at all. This is going to be a close match imo. All in all I wouldnt waste any of your potential profit backing donegal at such a poor price. When you placed the bet you didnt really expect the bet to come in, the money is already gone so dont waste the profit at this price!!

OnTheCounter · 07-09-2012 6:27am

FANTAPANTS wrote: »

put it all on cavan to get knocked out 1st round of championship next year "ITS A SURE WINNER"

you heard it here first folks and for free. Dont pay pension management fees, dont waste time reading the financial times and whatever you do don't back Liverpool.

Lob it in to this match and beat the returns offered by all of the other 'investments'.

bazzare · 19-09-2012 7:34am

Donegal and their fans really believe their own hype, they seem to think that they have got this already in the bag, and they just just need to show up to collect the cup.

Nobody seems to be giving any respect to Mayo, which means on the day all the pressure will be on Donegal.

I think this will be a low scoring game, so best option is to see how it goes in running and then trade.

will cover the draw just in case as i think there will only be a point or two in this. Cant see it being a good open game, will be very very cagey. The fear of losing will affect both teams.

Pundits and everybody else seem to be talking about Donegals amazing tactics and gameplan.In truth they are a team that has come from nowhere in the last few years.You would swear they were going for 5 in a row, its all just media hype. People calling them unbeatable is nonsense.

weather could affect this game also. A wet and windy day would suit Donegal more id say.

Hunger doesnt seem to get a mention much.Just think Mayo want this more.. 61 years waiting and so many recent finals lost in Croke Park.Really hope Mayo do it.

OnTheCounter · 20-09-2012 12:09am

bazzare wrote: »

Donegal and their fans really believe their own hype, they seem to think that they have got this already in the bag, and they just just need to show up to collect the cup.

Nobody seems to be giving any respect to Mayo, which means on the day all the pressure will be on Donegal.

I think this will be a low scoring game, so best option is to see how it goes in running and then trade.

will cover the draw just in case as i think there will only be a point or two in this. Cant see it being a good open game, will be very very cagey. The fear of losing will affect both teams.

Pundits and everybody else seem to be talking about Donegals amazing tactics and gameplan.In truth they are a team that has come from nowhere in the last few years.You would swear they were going for 5 in a row, its all just media hype. People calling them unbeatable is nonsense.

weather could affect this game also. A wet and windy day would suit Donegal more id say.

Hunger doesnt seem to get a mention much.Just think Mayo want this more.. 61 years waiting and so many recent finals lost in Croke Park.Really hope Mayo do it.

your not an odds compiler by any chance?

so sun, back mayo
rain, back donegal
SE winds with a cold front, back the draw?

Cartel Mike · 20-09-2012 3:34am

bazzare wrote: »

Donegal and their fans really believe their own hype, they seem to think that they have got this already in the bag, and they just just need to show up to collect the cup.

Nobody seems to be giving any respect to Mayo, which means on the day all the pressure will be on Donegal.

I think this will be a low scoring game, so best option is to see how it goes in running and then trade.

will cover the draw just in case as i think there will only be a point or two in this. Cant see it being a good open game, will be very very cagey. The fear of losing will affect both teams.

Pundits and everybody else seem to be talking about Donegals amazing tactics and gameplan.In truth they are a team that has come from nowhere in the last few years.You would swear they were going for 5 in a row, its all just media hype. People calling them unbeatable is nonsense.

weather could affect this game also. A wet and windy day would suit Donegal more id say.

Hunger doesnt seem to get a mention much.Just think Mayo want this more.. 61 years waiting and so many recent finals lost in Croke Park.Really hope Mayo do it.

Just let it ride or pick a safe market like over 1.5 45's @ 8/13.

Good luck with your bet but I get the impression that you wouldn't be interested in backing Donegal at 100/1 if you'd had the chance anyway.

I think Donegal have only ever won it once. So it's not as if they be sitting down to a five course meal before the match running out farting and belching.

All Ireland final bet, need advice/ suggestions ..

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