Best way to build up a balance?

paddymayoman · 19-06-2012 12:49am #1

Just wondering what methods people use for getting their betting balance up such as staking a small sum on evens or better odds or by placing a bigger sum on odds of 1/5 or odds such as that.Is it worth sweating over winning 1/6 of your stake on 'bankers', suuch as frankel at ascot tomorrow

Hoki · 21-06-2012 1:01am

Id avoid the "sure thing" route tbh, 1/5 shots lose more than you think - for eg: yesterday i did a small stakes 4 team Draw no Bet accum - France were 1/5 against Sweden & they lost 2 nil.

The best thing to do is just bet on the sports you know you have the biggest edge in , i tend to do best with football bets by backing home teams at 4/6 or 4/5 shots and doubling them up. I think you'll have to experiment a bit to see what best suits yourself.

paddymayoman · 21-06-2012 2:04am

At the moment im mainly doing gaa handicap betting or over/unders total points in gaa or rugby. Lets say over 0.5 goals is at least 1/20 in most matches but yet not every match has a goal in it.The odds always seem to favour the bookies.

kryogen · 21-06-2012 12:16pm

Accums will not help you build a bankroll long term

Singles and patience is the way to go.

Nuri Sahin · 23-06-2012 11:36am

As already said, single bets are the way to go.

I have fairly strong opinions about accumulators. Long story short, those who claim to win an accumulator, have lost more than likely their last 5 to 10 to whatever amount of accumulator bets before that just remember and barely break if ever break even no matter how they dress it up. The odd accum is okay to throw in, just don't have it as a regular pattern of you're betting.

I'd say the same about trebles too, to a lesser extent of course.

Wouldn't know much about GAA or rugby betting so couldn't comment on that.

Colonel Sanders · 23-06-2012 11:44am

The only multiples I do are specials offered from time to time by bookmakers (mainly in Powers shops for me)

Thy might be 2/1 for both Team A and Team B to win in Saturday's football matches

I price these up using Betfair lay prices +10% (if the Betfair market is reasonably liquid). If the special price is bigger I back them

Just the other night they were 4/1 Portugal/Germany/Spain/England to make the Euro 2012 semi finals. Using Betfair lay prices and adding on 10% It was 4.9. I backed it.

They were 6/4 Portugal and Germany to both win in 90 mins. This was 2.42 using lay prices but adding in the 10% margin brought it to over 6/4 so I didn't back it ([2.42-1]*1.1 + 1 > 2.5)

Colonel Sanders · 23-06-2012 11:56am

In general the thing to remember with accumulators is that:
1. Unless all the prices are wrong you probably won't have a value bet
2. if one of the prices isn't wrong it will drag down the EV from the other selections (assuming their prices are wrong)

It's quite hard for me to believe that someone sticking 10 football teams/horses in an accumulator as researched all their selections and is happy that all prices are wrong

Let's look at a 2 horse race where each horse is as likely to win as the other i.e. the probability of each winning is 50% and fair odds are even money, 2.0 in Betfair speak. The bookie wants to make a profit so won't offer you 2.0, more likely 10/11

if you back at 10/11 your expected profit is:

0.91*50% - 1*50% = -0.05

If you stck 2 10/11 shots into a double then the fair price is 3/1 (or 4.0) yet you are getting 3.64

Your expeced profit is

2.64*25% - 1*75% = -0.09

The table below shows the situation with multiples up to a 5 timer

1 2 3 4 5
Fair Price 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Bookmker Price 1.91 3.64 6.96 13.28 25.36

Expected profit -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.17 -0.21

Even if this case if you only back singles you can expect to lose money in the long run. However you can expect to lose less money than doing mutiples

DB74 · 26-06-2012 1:42pm

The other thing to remember about accumulators is that they are usually the only way to win a life-changing sum of money from small stakes.

Singles are the way to go for regular wins IMO

However, accumulators are in the ha'penny place when it comes to the stuff some people bet on. Don't know if people here follow Skybet on Twitter but they have been giving punters a chance to choose certain scenarios in some EURO 2012 matches and some of the stuff people suggest is incredible. You have to wonder do people really think betting on these bets is a good idea

Examples from the last England match are:

1. England to win 2-1, Rooney to score first & Gerrard to score the winner
2. England to win 2-1, Rooney to score first & Carroll to score the winner
3. Ashley Young to get booked for diving
4. Balotelli & Rooney to both get sent off
5. Joe Hart to score winning penalty
6. Balotelli to score and be sent off
7. Rooney to hit the woodwork
8. Woodwork to be hit 3 or more times
9. Rooney to score the perfect hat-trick
10. John Terry to have his head bandaged Terry Butcher-style

Skybet must be creaming themselves at people asking for this type of crap

So far I've requested 2 bets from them, both of which have been ignored

The first one was in response to someone asking for a price on Ronaldo to score a free-kick (in the Germany match only) to which Sky came back with 10/11! I asked for a price on Ronaldo NOT to score a free-kick which they obviously ignored because they would have looked stupid

The second one was Gerrard to play full 90 mins against Ukraine as a hedge against the substitute bet in the main EURO thread. Again this was ignored in favour of the ****e above.

tinodz · 27-06-2012 12:04pm

I feel ill reading that

DB74 · 27-06-2012 3:31pm

Get your suggestions into Sky for the match tonight. Some corkers up there already.

- Pepe & Busquets to both get sent off
- 2 penalties missed in the 90 mins
- Ronaldo to score at both ends

https://www.facebook.com/SkyBet

paddymayoman · 28-06-2012 12:01am

Id say those goalscorer money back specials for paddy power make them a fortune.i think it was ronaldo tonight.

Colonel Sanders · 28-06-2012 11:41am

paddymayoman wrote: »

Id say those goalscorer money back specials for paddy power make them a fortune.i think it was ronaldo tonight.

They're trying to entice gullible punters into betting into a market that carries a huge over round. 1st goal scorers, score casts etc are often really poor value bets. That's why you see bookmakers advertise them

Why do you think you never see them advertising backing a horse each way in an 8 runner race which can unlock a place price much bigger than place only on Betfair implies?

Tony_Montana · 28-06-2012 12:48pm

Is there any good threads on here about bankroll management.
I don't sports bet often but I'm sure it is important!
ie. how much of your money should you bet at any given time?

Colonel Sanders · 29-06-2012 11:39pm

There are a lit of systems around, a quick google will sort you out, e.g. Kelly:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

unattendedbag · 30-06-2012 5:45pm

I do a lot of tennis bets during the summer. Not great value for the prices but when you put a few trebles and fourfolds together each day they usually pay off. There is usually several matches everyday involving the top players and the results are much more predictable than football. Favorites seem to come in about 98-99% of the time.

paddymayoman · 01-07-2012 3:01am

unattendedbag wrote: »

I do a lot of tennis bets during the summer. Not great value for the prices but when you put a few trebles and fourfolds together each day they usually pay off. There is usually several matches everyday involving the top players and the results are much more predictable than football. Favorites seem to come in about 98-99% of the time.

Tough week for the favourites with nadal and venus williams losing and with murray,federer and serena williams given very tough matches by their opponents

Best way to build up a balance?

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