The 2011 Hurricane season

TheInquisitor · 06-06-2011 11:19pm #1

I know its still ridiculously early but we may have our first tropical depression of the season within the next 24 hours. 50% chance at the moment

1. A large low pressure system located over the northwestern caribbean sea about 90 miles south-southwest of grand cayman is moving slowly toward the northwest. This system is gradually becoming better organized and thunderstorm activity has developed closer to the surface center. Some additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form later tonight or Tuesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause flash floods and mud slides over portions of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba as the system moves slowly toward the northwest or north over the next couple of days.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

So what do people think the current season will hold for us? Last year there were loads of hurricanes but most were directed up into the Atlantic rather than into the gulf of Mexico. This year predictions are the opposite. Loads of big impact hurricanes going straight into the Gulf where they mushroom in size and often under go extreme development due to the very warm waters.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

I hate to use Wikipedia but they have amassed all the forecasts into an easily comparable and readable format...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season

up for anything · 21-06-2011 6:35pm

Big Think

J DEMING on June 21, 2011, 12:50 PM

The June 19th and 21st Earth Observatory images of Nabro got me thinking the Atlantic hurricane season again. This eruption came just around the time of the monsoonal wind shift, which I think is why there were two very different plume directions, Russia bound at first and now more westward and southwestward. I’m trying to find out from hobbyists who know more about meteorology than I do just what effect that enormous amount of SO2 may have on tropical wave formation in northwestern Africa, and about the possibility of a bit of sea surface cooling if it gets over the ocean for any length of time. The strongest Cape Verde tropical cyclones come from that area, and those can track right into the Gulf and head to Texas (which right now could use the rain).

Will pass along word if I hear anything from knowledgeable persons. This might be a very slow Atlantic hurricane season this year.

Saw this and thought it might of be interest to hurricane lovers.

roryc1 · 21-06-2011 6:41pm

Was thing about this too, between low solar activity and all these volcano's going off it could be a very quite season

TheInquisitor · 28-06-2011 9:52pm

The first one was a dud. This one looks like its guaranteed to become the first Atlantic depression this season. The pacific has already had 2 hurricanes!

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

90% chance of becoming tropical depression so far

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

maquiladora · 28-06-2011 11:05pm

Indeed, a slow start to the season this year.

Hope we have some interesting stuff to follow over the coming months!

dexter647 · 28-06-2011 11:22pm

Early days yet i'm sure but yea lets hope it pick up soon:)

maquiladora · 29-06-2011 9:16am

Tropical Storm ARLENE

maquiladora · 12-08-2011 2:09pm

Four Invests in the Atlantic.

93L looking the most interesting :

Looks like we'll be back to following the tropics next week.

dexter647 · 12-08-2011 3:46pm

Yea seen that earlier all right.. exciting times ahead as the atlantic is finally beginning to awaken:)

thetonynator · 12-08-2011 10:04pm

Been quiet for a while since Emily dissipated dramatically there . . .unusually quiet for August really!

snowstreams · 19-08-2011 10:39am

Looks like harvey might form and then dissapear as quickly as he formed!
This has to be the latest date for a hurricane not to have formed yet?

maquiladora · 19-08-2011 11:39am

97L looking interesting.

06Z GFS has it as a hurricane hitting northwest Florida after crossing Cuba.

maquiladora · 20-08-2011 10:12pm

Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...

thetonynator · 20-08-2011 10:38pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...

Or she could end up being a damp squib like the rest of them . .. :P

Pilotdude5 · 20-08-2011 11:03pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...

I certainly hope not as I'm doing some flying training in florida from next Wednesday for 10 days:eek:

dsmythy · 21-08-2011 12:09am

Tropical Storm Irene is born.

dexter647 · 21-08-2011 12:26am

dsmythy wrote: »

Tropical Storm Irene is born.

...And looks head on for florida. Will be interesting to see how she develops,strenght wise, over the coming days... Def one to watch

TheInquisitor · 02-09-2011 8:30pm

Just as an FYI for people. We are 3 weeks ahead compared to last year with names storms. We didn't make it to L until the 23rd September last year. Only thing is there were many more hurricanes last year compared to this year!

gbee · 03-09-2011 2:20pm

Absolutely.

from http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-lisa-2010

A screen grab

maquiladora · 05-09-2011 2:04pm

This could be an interesting one...

dsmythy · 30-11-2011 7:54pm

And so we near another season's end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX7Q-0QuID4

The 2011 Hurricane season

Comments