The Cheonan Effect 13-14th August Predator CG

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UN Intel 5th June 2011

Analysts say the North is unlikely to undertake another act of aggression like this year's attack on South Korea's Cheonan warship, blamed on the North by the United States and the South, and the Yeonpyeong shelling, at least in the near term.

Its most likely next move would be to conduct live-fire artillery drills or possibly a short-range missile test into its waters off the west coast.

Analysts have said its recent militaristic acts have served to bolster family rule as ailing leader Kim Jong-il grooms his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor.

The South's Joongang Daily said before the announcement South Korea should practice "nimble diplomacy" and forge a closer relationship with China.

"As long as there is a constant threat from the North to launch a surprise attack, we must be on high alert from a military perspective," the newspaper said.

"But such preparations should be combined with diplomacy. We should reduce our diplomatic dependence on the United States and strengthen our ties with China and Russia."

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun, also speaking before the announcement of the drill, said domestic financial markets had weathered the crisis and the South Korean economy, Asia's fourth-largest, stayed on a growth track.

Consumers and businesses in South Korea say they have lived with tension on the divided peninsula for decades and markets do not always react although the recent crisis had rattled global markets and remained an underlying risk.

Intel
UN Forces Joint Chiefs of Staff



UN Intel 24th June 2011

North Korea this week offered to re-admit U.N. inspectors concerned about its nuclear-weapon program, leading to speculation of a resumption of six-party disarmament talks and a general sigh of relief around the world that the crisis had passed.

The latest crisis peaked when North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong, just south of the disputed maritime border, killing four people — including two civilians — in the worst attack on South Korean territory since the end of the civil war in 1953.

The South carried out live-fire drills on Yeonpyeong on Monday1st June 2011, which provoked only a verbal reaction from the North.

It had vowed to strike back if the South went ahead with the drills, prompting fears of all-out war.

China, North Korea's only major ally, has urged dialogue to resolve the crisis and urged the North to follow through on its offer to allow U.N. inspectors into the country.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment on the planned drill.

End. Stay tuned for updates.