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"Wind and wave energies are not renewable after all"

2456

Comments

  • #32
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Not the case. SEAI report demonstrates wind actually reduces wholesale electricity prices in Ireland.

    If you're "pretty sure", where are your links and sources?


  • #33
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    riffmongous wrote: »
    Does anyone have a link to an example of the amount of energy produced by a wind turbine during a high pressure cold period? I've seen the argument about wind energy being unreliable during highs so many times, I'd like to see the actual numbers out of interest.

    At the bottom of this page, select dates you wish & click "download" in order to download the data for last December, it was fairly ugly that month.
    Macha wrote: »
    Not the case. SEAI report demonstrates wind actually reduces wholesale electricity prices in Ireland.

    If you're "pretty sure", where are your links and sources?

    Wind power: Even worse than you thought links to report based on UK grid data, someone should do one here based on Eirgrid data above


  • #34
    edwinkane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 376 ✭✭edwinkane


    Macha wrote: »
    Not the case. SEAI report demonstrates wind actually reduces wholesale electricity prices in Ireland.

    If you're "pretty sure", where are your links and sources?

    It's great the wholesale price of electricity has come down in ireland. But the wholesale price is not the same as the cost, especially when one takes into account the capital cost and the cost of subsidies to ensure wind generation is viable. Without subsidies, which account for about 7% of our power bills in the UK, wind power would be too costly to make it viable, at current prices.

    As wiseguy shows above, I too have seen the report which shows that wind farms produce less power than is often assumed, and they also don't necessarily produce it at the right times. For example, when it was most needed, during the heavy power demand in Nov-Dec 2010 freezing weather in the UK, the contribution of wind was negligible.

    What I was "pretty sure" about was the mathematics. The capital cost of 3000 wind turbines at £100k each is £3 billion.


  • #35
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    If you read the report, you'll see the cost of subsidies is factored in.

    Most of the costs of construction are borne by the private sector.

    I'm talking about Ireland here, not the UK.


  • #36
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    Macha wrote: »
    If you read the report, you'll see the cost of subsidies is factored in.

    Most of the costs of construction are borne by the private sector.

    I'm talking about Ireland here, not the UK.

    In Ireland the generators do not have to pay for the the construction of the required grid infrastructure, often having to be build in remote areas for the farms. Eirgrid alone needs several billion over next few years just to connect existing farms in the Gate process, that is money that will have to come from the taxpayers. Make the generators pay the cost and see them squeal.


    regarding the cold winter
    Cold snap hits Ireland
    The sustained cold weather in early January 2010 resulted in
    temperatures of -10°C and below. A new record of 4,524 MW
    for the Saturday Peak was recorded on 9th January. Wind
    generation at this time was 145 MW.


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  • #37
    edwinkane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 376 ✭✭edwinkane


    Macha wrote: »
    If you read the report, you'll see the cost of subsidies is factored in.

    Most of the costs of construction are borne by the private sector.

    I'm talking about Ireland here, not the UK.

    I have read the report. I'm also aware of how wind turbines are often financed and was involved in an irish company who financed wind turbines in California as far back as the 1990's.

    The cost is the cost, whoever and however it is financed.

    I'm talking about the value wind power has to make to power generation in society as a whole, and not just in the case of Ireland. Hence the report is interesting because it is full of facts and we can learn from it.


  • #38
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    Macha wrote: »
    Most of the costs of construction are borne by the private sector.

    That is what they used to say about overbuilding houses here in Ireland, until the liabilities that resulted from the mis-allocated capital during the boom ended up being dumped on the taxpayer and people of the country.


  • #39
    edwinkane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 376 ✭✭edwinkane


    wiseguy wrote: »
    That is what they used to say about overbuilding houses here in Ireland, until the liabilities that resulted from the mis-allocated capital during the boom ended up being dumped on the taxpayer and people of the country.

    To be fair, at least wind turbines have the ability to generate revenue over a period of time, which empty houses don't.

    What is really interesting is that at peak demand times, wind capacity was negligible, "At each of the four highest peak demands of 2010 wind output was low being respectively 4.72%, 5.51%, 2.59% and 2.51% of capacity at peak demand". In other words, only about 5% of the wind turbines were producing power at the very times it was most needed.


  • #40
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    edwinkane wrote: »
    To be fair, at least wind turbines have the ability to generate revenue over a period of time, which empty houses don't.

    I do not think the people who where building all those commercial and residential properties that are now empty, thought they would end-up being be empty due to lack of demand. There are strong parallels to be drawn. Wind has promised so much but looking at Eirgrid data has delivered so little at such high costs to everyone involved.


  • #41
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    wiseguy wrote: »
    At the bottom of this page, select dates you wish & click "download" in order to download the data for last December, it was fairly ugly that month.



    Wind power: Even worse than you thought links to report based on UK grid data, someone should do one here based on Eirgrid data above

    The Register is a very bad source for anything connected with the environment. Any source they choose is going be negative.

    Shame, really, because I love their tech coverage - but their environmental stuff is completely Top Gear.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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  • #42
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    edwinkane wrote: »
    Storing nuclear waste is not a nightmare...
    Nuclear waste has to be stored indefinitely – that makes it an economic nightmare, the cost of which is usually born by taxpayers.
    edwinkane wrote: »
    What I was "pretty sure" about was the mathematics. The capital cost of 3000 wind turbines at £100k each is £3 billion.
    You say that wind power meets about 3% of total UK demand? Ok, that equates to about 10.8 TWh annually. If we say the lifetime of a turbine is a conservative 20 years, that means the current installed operational capacity will produce a total of 216 TWh over it’s lifetime. At an outlay of £3 billion, that works out at about £0.01 per kWh, which is pretty damn cheap.
    edwinkane wrote: »
    I'm also aware of how wind turbines are often financed and was involved in an irish company who financed wind turbines in California as far back as the 1990's.
    Sure you were.


  • #43
    edwinkane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 376 ✭✭edwinkane


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    The Register is a very bad source for anything connected with the environment. Any source they choose is going be negative.

    Shame, really, because I love their tech coverage - but their environmental stuff is completely Top Gear.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    I agree which is why I recommend you read the report itself http://www.jmt.org/assets/pdf/wind-report.pdf

    Lets not get sidetracked from the facts by blaming an irrelevant article as an excuse for ignoring the facts.


  • #44
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    The Register is a very bad source for anything connected with the environment. Any source they choose is going be negative.

    Shame, really, because I love their tech coverage - but their environmental stuff is completely Top Gear.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    The Register article links to the actual report if you bother to open and read the article. Which is exactly what my post said on the tin.

    That's UK, our nearest neighbor with similar weather, one can always go to the Eirgrid site linked earlier, download the generation data, open in excel, and see for themselves the sorry state of wind generation, especially during last winter.

    edit: here ya go

    Untitled_62.jpg


  • #45
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    wiseguy wrote: »
    That's UK, our nearest neighbor with similar weather, one can always go to the Eirgrid site linked earlier, download the generation data, open in excel, and see for themselves the sorry state of wind generation, especially during last winter.
    Last year, wind generated about 2.6 TWh in Ireland - that represents just under 10% of total demand.


  • #46
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Last year, wind generated about 2.6 TWh in Ireland - that represents just under 10% of total demand.

    You don't get it do you? The total yearly generation figures are irrelevant when your factory, hospital or home has no electricity during peak hours due to a week long front causing freezing, as would have happened several times in last few winters if it was not for gas and oil.

    The wind generation targets are 40% and then 60% of total. Which means the unreliability of wind is amplified the larger the installed base becomes. This means installing even more gas backup plants which would have to sit idle when the wind blows. These are not free either.

    The country and the economy can not shutdown when the wind stops blowing or doesn't blow as strong or too strong. Which it does as seen in Eirgrid's own data and graph above.


  • #47
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    wiseguy wrote: »
    The wind generation targets are 40% and then 60% of total. Which means the unreliability of wind is amplified the larger the installed base becomes. This means installing even more gas backup plants which would have to sit idle when the wind blows. These are not free either.
    Where are you getting those targets from? I've never seen them before.


  • #48
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    Macha wrote: »
    Where are you getting those targets from? I've never seen them before.

    The 40% target is for 2020.
    Ireland is on target to achieve its target of 40 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2020, and in achieving that target, we will have one of highest levels of wind power as a percentage of system demand in Europe, according to the EirGrid Annual Renewable Report which was launched in Dublin by Energy Minister Eamon Ryan



    In this document Eirgrid examine 60% portfolio in 2035
    As an alternative to reducing carbon emissions with thermal generating technologies, all
    three ‘high’ renewables portfolios are centred on much higher deployment of renewables
    at 80% of total generation. These portfolios will enable us to examine alternatives in
    dealing with the high levels of intermittency associated with the wind and marine sources.
    We have limited wind generation to 60% because beyond this point, the requirements for
    additional firm capacity backup appear to be onerous. A further 20% of renewables is
    delivered by dedicated biomass-fired plant and a combination of marine and tidal
    generation.
    Gas-fired plant has been deployed only to levels necessary to maintain the same system
    security standards as the other portfolios


  • #49
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    wiseguy wrote: »
    The 40% target is for 2020.
    That target is for all renewables, not just wind.
    wiseguy wrote: »
    In this document Eirgrid examine 60% portfolio in 2035
    That is a scenario analysis, not a target.


  • #50
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    wiseguy wrote: »
    You don't get it do you? The total yearly generation figures are irrelevant when your factory, hospital or home has no electricity during peak hours due to a week long front causing freezing, as would have happened several times in last few winters if it was not for gas and oil.
    What don’t I get? The country has gas and oil-fired generating capacity, so what’s the problem? Why not have this complimented by wind-generation? Given that Ireland is one of the windiest locations on the planet, that would seem to make a lot of economic sense. If wind produces 2.3 TWh per annum, that’s about 1.35 million barrels of oil (or gas equivalent) that doesn’t need to be imported – how is that a bad thing?


  • #51
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    djpbarry wrote: »
    What don’t I get? The country has gas and oil-fired generating capacity, so what’s the problem? Why not have this complimented by wind-generation? Given that Ireland is one of the windiest locations on the planet, that would seem to make a lot of economic sense. If wind produces 2.3 TWh per annum, that’s about 1.35 million barrels of oil (or gas equivalent) that doesn’t need to be imported – how is that a bad thing?

    Wind farms are neither free nor grow out of the ground, there are costs involved, these costs are also front-loaded at a time when credit is scarce and comes at high interest, all of which you are completely ignoring.
    Having to build new power lines to remote areas costs money, having to build a MW of gas backup for every MW of wind costs money, having to idle and maintain gas plants costs money.
    These costs are either paid directly by taxpayers and/or indirectly by everyone who pays an electricity bill whether private or business.

    An once again, the country can not just shut down when the wind stops blowing, the 2020 targets also call for gas generation to be under 50%, so where will the electricity come from when the wind doesn't blow, which as seen from Eirgrid's own data is quite often.


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  • #52
    maggy_thatcher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,049 ✭✭✭maggy_thatcher


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I agree with that. I don't have any issues with nuclear in general myself - the dangers are generally grossly over-rated compared to, for example, dam failures or climate change - but I don't really see the economic case for an Irish nuclear plant. If we're going to import the fuel, why not just import the energy?

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    One thing I was wondering -- there's currently a ban on getting even a prospecting licence to see if there is usable Uranium in this country -- but given that the source of Radon in the environment is naturally-decaying Uranium, and there are constant scaremongering about the amount of Radon in the country - how likely is it that there's actually mineable Uranium (or Thorium), thereby avoiding the whole "import" question? I know in the past there was talk of there being a good bit in Wicklow and Donegal...


  • #53
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    wiseguy wrote: »
    Wind farms are neither free nor grow out of the ground, there are costs involved, these costs are also front-loaded at a time when credit is scarce and comes at high interest, all of which you are completely ignoring.
    There was me thinking I had given an estimate of the (extremely low) cost of wind generation earlier in this thread (albeit in the UK).
    wiseguy wrote: »
    Having to build new power lines to remote areas costs money...
    It does, but go ahead and factor in the cost of power lines into my calculation above. I’m pretty confident the cost per kWh won’t increase significantly.
    wiseguy wrote: »
    ...having to build a MW of gas backup for every MW of wind costs money...
    Yes, it does. However, given that said gas “backup” already exists, I fail to see why it needs to be factored in as an additional cost. For the umpteenth time, wind is being used to compliment conventional generation technologies (be they thermal or nuclear), not replace them.
    wiseguy wrote: »
    An once again, the country can not just shut down when the wind stops blowing...
    How many times does it have to be said that nobody is proposing that the country be entirely reliant on wind power?


  • #54
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    djpbarry wrote: »
    There was me thinking I had given an estimate of the (extremely low) cost of wind generation earlier in this thread (albeit in the UK).

    Something like 2 billion is needed by Eirgrid from somewhere in next 2 years just to complete the existing GATE connections. Where will this come from? Primetime few months back had an estimate of 12 billion to meed the 2020 target, where will that come from?
    I have yet to see a cost estimate for wind that includes subsidies,new grid connections,cost of backup and so on.
    What are the total costs and return on investment for wind?

    Just because the energy is there doesnt make it free nor lowcost. Take Canada they are sitting on top of more oil shale reserves than Saudi, yet the return on investment is much lower due to high costs. Not exactly "free" energy is it?

    How many times does it have to be said that nobody is proposing that the country be entirely reliant on wind power?

    Having almost half of the energy come from wind in a decade is not "reliant"? Will all wind construction stop then??


    The wind industry and its supporters sound awful like Fianna Fail'ers in last decade, using the exact same arguments that where used in construction industry and led to where we are today :( see signature :(


  • #55
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    djpbarry wrote: »
    If wind produces 2.3 TWh per annum, that’s about 1.35 million barrels of oil (or gas equivalent) that doesn’t need to be imported – how is that a bad thing?

    At what total cost? By ignoring the costs you are arguments are all very one sided. Like I said wind generators don't grow on trees, neither does capital.

    And who said that energy had to be generated from oil or gas?


  • #56
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    wiseguy wrote: »
    Something like 2 billion is needed by Eirgrid from somewhere in next 2 years just to complete the existing GATE connections.
    And this is exclusively for the accommodation of wind generation? Do you have a source for this figure?
    wiseguy wrote: »
    I have yet to see a cost estimate for wind that includes subsidies,new grid connections,cost of backup and so on.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grp022


  • #57
    wiseguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 370 ✭✭wiseguy


    djpbarry wrote: »
    And this is exclusively for the accommodation of wind generation? Do you have a source for this figure?

    Go search the Eirgrid site for information on the GATE project.

    djpbarry wrote: »
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grp022

    From your own link.
    For a small and isolated electricity system such as Ireland, a high penetration of wind is economically sound only with increased interconnection to Great Britain
    Throws the "energy independence" argument out the window doesn't it? :(
    Considering that both countries usually experience same weather fronts, relying on Britain means relying on their coal and nuclear plants.
    And of course this being Ireland, we cant even build the inter-connectors cheaply either, the current East-West project is already costing more than a longer connection of same capacity between UK and Netherlands.


  • #58
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    wiseguy wrote: »
    Go search the Eirgrid site for information on the GATE project.
    You made the claim, you back it up.
    wiseguy wrote: »
    Throws the "energy independence" argument out the window doesn't it?
    What energy independence argument? I’ve never heard anyone argue for large-scale investment in wind in the absence of interconnectors. Besides, a common energy policy between the UK & Ireland makes sense. A common EU approach would be even better.
    wiseguy wrote: »
    Considering that both countries usually experience same weather fronts, relying on Britain means relying on their coal and nuclear plants.
    So?


  • #59
    Oldtree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,109 ✭✭✭Oldtree


    "Wind farms are much less efficient than claimed, producing below 10% of capacity for more than a third of the time, according to a new report:"

    FOIE: http://www.friendsoftheirishenvironment.net/paperstoday/index.php?do=paperstoday&action=view&id=14112

    JMT/Stuart Young Consulting report here (Analysis of UK Wind Generation): http://www.jmt.org/news.asp?s=2&nid=JMT-N10561


  • #60
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Is everyone aware that standard plants are about 35% efficient? The obsession with wind's load factors is very difficult to understand in light of years of silence on the inefficiency of regular plants.


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  • #61
    Chloe Pink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 804 ✭✭✭Chloe Pink


    Macha wrote: »
    Is everyone aware that standard plants are about 35% efficient? The obsession with wind's load factors is very difficult to understand in light of years of silence on the inefficiency of regular plants.

    Are you aware that 'load factor' is not a measure of 'efficiency'?


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