100 Bets to broke NH Finale

longshotvalue · 26-03-2011 10:47am

3:50 Bangor

Simarian : Outsider of the field here, but really his form on good ground is much better than soft, and his last 2 runs have been on unsuitable ground. Today could easily suit him and he looks a bit of value at 16/1 Currently

1 Point win

4:20 Bangor

Ouzbeck: Rated 149 over fences and running to that mark, he is well in here with 132 over hurdles with the addition of a 7lbs claimer he is carrying only 11:5 in a race of this nature and really should run well. He look welloverpriced here at 32 win 8.2 place here

1 Points win 1 Points Place

longshotvalue · 28-03-2011 11:02am

Did end up that kind of day on saturday with a few close ones and fallers etc..

16:30 Towcester

Shes On The Case: The novice form last year looks very good considering the mark of 101 here. Shes had 2 runs this year close together over shorter trips and the step up in trip here with a more normal break of 3 weeks, may bring about a decent chance. She looks a bit overprice with Stan James at 16/1 as is shorter than that to come back to form here.

1 Point win 16/1 Stan James

longshotvalue · 29-03-2011 9:29pm

Catterick 2:50

Ive only got a few horses in my tracker that i never use, but Masked Dance is out tomorrow, of a mark 3 lbs less than his win over this trip last year , and his last run on the AW was very eyecathing over a trip too short of 6f, where he finished really well. Its possible he prefers Softer ground, but he has form on good and looks overpriced here at 11.5 on betfair.

2 Points win

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 2:58pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Catterick 2:50

Ive only got a few horses in my tracker that i never use, but Masked Dance is out tomorrow, of a mark 3 lbs less than his win over this trip last year , and his last run on the AW was very eyecathing over a trip too short of 6f, where he finished really well. Its possible he prefers Softer ground, but he has form on good and looks overpriced here at 11.5 on betfair.

2 Points win

Must make more use of the tracker for the flat season .................

thesandeman · 30-03-2011 3:00pm

Good man Aidan. Keep it up B-)

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 3:28pm

Lingfield 3:30

Bonnie Prince Blue: Late but he is too big on betfair and ran to to his mark here in his last run, this is an easier claimer. And not a lot of form anywhere. Looks 2 points 2 big at 7.4 on betfair

1 Point win

longshotvalue · 30-03-2011 3:35pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Lingfield 3:30

Bonnie Prince Blue: Late but he is too big on betfair and ran to to his mark here in his last run, this is an easier claimer. And not a lot of form anywhere. Looks 2 points 2 big at 7.4 on betfair

1 Point win

sorry for the lateness of this one

thesandeman · 30-03-2011 3:39pm

Missed it. Not to worry.
Youre on B roll B-)

longshotvalue · 31-03-2011 1:05pm

3:35 Ludlow.

Troubletimestwo: Ive looked at him a couple of times this season as his mark has come down as he hasnt really done anything yet, but he is stepped up in trip here and gets what looks to be his best ground. He had some very good runs last year on good ground, including a good 5th in an ascot good ground 2mile Novice handicap of a mark of 123. He has looked a bit one paced and the step up in trip should suit, and he looked to be running better last time before falling at the last, and his mark here of 109 may have him involved. He looks overpriced on betfair to win at 19.5..

1 Point win

mike65 · 31-03-2011 1:10pm

Are you going to start a 2011 turf flat season thread?

longshotvalue · 31-03-2011 1:14pm

mike65 wrote: »

Are you going to start a 2011 turf flat season thread?

No i just do them in 100 bet lots, i think this is bet no 88, so ill be starting a new one shortly..

This is my 4th 100 bet tread. First time in this subforum tough..

longshotvalue · 31-03-2011 1:57pm

Ludlow 4:05

Akarshan: He looks clearly a good ground horse and is rated far higher over hurdles. His last run was better on good ground and he was better over further over hurdles. He is stepped up in trip today from his last run and has a good bit in his favour here. He looks overpriced to win on betfair at 17.5.

1 Point win

.5 Point Each Way double both of these on Betfair.

jkelly85 · 31-03-2011 4:20pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ludlow 4:05

Akarshan: He looks clearly a good ground horse and is rated far higher over hurdles. His last run was better on good ground and he was better over further over hurdles. He is stepped up in trip today from his last run and has a good bit in his favour here. He looks overpriced to win on betfair at 17.5.

1 Point win

.5 Point Each Way double both of these on Betfair.

very nice each way double

your on fire

keep it up

longshotvalue · 31-03-2011 4:30pm

jkelly85 wrote: »

very nice each way double

your on fire

keep it up

Thanks

2nd and 3rd The place Double payed 23.72 so 11.86 Points at the suggested .5 points EW

... less 3 points 8.86 point profit..

longshotvalue · 01-04-2011 10:46am

Muss 3:20

Mon Brav: This one has a decent record fresh when winning on his 2yo debut and a decent 4th over 6f back as a 3yo. He won a 3yo 5f Sprint Handicap of a mark of 78, then rattled of 4 runs at the end of the year when unsupported to get him down to his mark of 75 for this race. He was consistant last year of this mark or higher until the end of the season and he could be value here at 12.5 win on betfair. He has been gelded since last year and this could be an advantage. A Negative could be the mention of Soft in the going which may not suit. He looks about 2-3 points too big here.

1 Point Wins

longshotvalue · 01-04-2011 10:58am

Lincoln Tomorrow.

Al Muheer: Ive been following this one for a while since he did a good turn for me 2 years back at a big price. He won and finished second in 2 big handicaps at ascot and that put paid to his handicap mark. But since moving to this stable he had a few very decent runs at the end of last year, notably when a running on 6th in the totesport mile of a mark of 98. He is in here of a mark of 94 and could be one to follow this year as he should win something decent of that mark. He looks overpriced at the moment at 25/1 VCbet. The stable is well capable of getting him ready for a first time out run.

2 Points Each way 25/1 VCBET

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 9:26am

Doncaster 2:05, William Hill Spring Mile Kyllachy Star: He was very consistent last year at around this mark, and ran a very good race again this year on his reappearance at the Curragh two weeks ago when 3rd in a good one mile handicap. He has been put up 3lbs for that but that only comes into effect after this race so he should have a decent chance of his mark in this race off 92. He has a very good 5lbs claimer on and that won't do him any harm at all, in addition to the fact that he has had a run this year where most of the field haven't . He looks a few points overpriced at 14/1

1 Point Each Way 14/1 5 places

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 11:59am

Lincoln:

Wanting to have a small saver possibly on the other side of the draw from my first selection, im going with Freemont, he was dissapointing last year, but it looks as tough all was not right as he didnt race at all after 2 early season runs. He does have a somewhat similiar profile to the Fav here and as such to a lot of the recent winners in that he is an unexposed horse compared to most of the field. He looks a bit of value at 14/1 currently and looks woth a bet to cover both sides, as hes drawn in 21.

1 Point win 14/1

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 1:00pm

Doncaster 5:20

Lucky Dance: Going with the outsider of thefield here, he ran really well in the spring mile last year when he led and then stayed on at the end for 3rd of 8lbs higher. He is up in trip here and there is no guarentee he will stay but he is a huge price and is easily worth the risk. He has been hurdling where he hasnt set the world on fire but at least hell be fit and ready to go. He does look well treated ot 78 and the lighter weight could help him stay.. He is 55 win 14.5 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 1:13pm

Doncaster 5:55

Scarab: This is just a case of a decent horse who had 2 bad runs at the end of last year being overlooked and overpriced. He Had a consistant season last year of lower marks, but has in the past won of 9lbs higher than he is today on AW. Might still be in with a chance of his mark here of 68, a mark off which he finshed 3rd in a redcar handicap towards the end of his good run last year. He looks ovpriced at 55 win 10 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 2:29pm

Doncaster 2:35

Jimmy Styles: He looks a bit too big on betfair at 36 to win, he has had 3 runs this year including 2 decent runs in Mayden, and a good run back on the AW Latest. He would need to get back to his best for but might stand a small chance at a big price. Currently 36 win 9.6 place which is too big on both fronts.

1 Point win 1Point Place

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 2:40pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Doncaster 2:35

Jimmy Styles: He looks a bit too big on betfair at 36 to win, he has had 3 runs this year including 2 decent runs in Mayden, and a good run back on the AW Latest. He would need to get back to his best for but might stand a small chance at a big price. Currently 36 win 9.6 place which is too big on both fronts.

1 Point win 1Point Place

Beeeeeeuuuuutttyyyyyyyyy.. jeeez he won well...

Johnny86 · 02-04-2011 2:46pm

Cant believe i missed you posting that one...decided id follow everything from yesterday onwards!

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 2:58pm

Chepstow 4:25

Aviador: I selected him for his last win in a similiar race at sandown, he won that race really well in soft going, and has gone up 8lbs. Altough 8lbs up isnt ideal he certainly is at 14/1 shot as he is on betfair at the moment. He looked well capable of coping with 8lbs that day, and he is simply too big at 15.5 on betfair

1 Point win Betfair

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 3:12pm

Kempton 3:25

Greyfriarschorista: I was looking at this last night and decided he wouldnt stay, but he is out to 17.0 on betfair and that just looks too big of his current mark of 91. He was 3rd in the Britannia Handicap last year of 98, and if he can stay he will look value. His last run was decent over 1of at linfield.. He is currently 17.0 on betfair, and that looks 2-4 points too big.

1 Point win

UrbanSea · 02-04-2011 3:25pm

Well done.

x PyRo · 02-04-2011 4:09pm

Top bombing Aidan. Quit opposing me.

longshotvalue · 02-04-2011 6:19pm

Today +27.4 BSP +30.6 Advised Points

Story so far

98 Bets BSP Betfair Starting Price

BSP 202.01 Points less 19.3 commission Nett 182.71 points Profit
Advised 162.46 Points less 17.3 commission Nett 145.14 points Profit

ROI 63.4%

longshotvalue · 03-04-2011 9:56am

Last 2 Bets on this tread.

Doncaster 3:55

Waffle: Lightly raced sort, who has some excellent for including 2nd Group 3. He looks like he will be suited by the step up to 6f having finished like a train in a 5f race over the course last year. Could be unexposed in handicaps, and is well drawn, 2 good runs of this mark or higher over 5f on the course and both time looking like further would be no harm. He is way to big on betfair at 28 to win, he is only 10-12/1 generally

2 Points win Betfair 28.0 2 Points Place 6.2 betfair

Parisian Pyramid : Perfect draw, he is super consistant and looks of a reasonable mark here and is overpriced. He ran well in at higher marks last year, and has a kind of reasonable record fresh.

1 Points EW 25/1 William Hill

Brendygg · 03-04-2011 4:01pm

close 1!

100 Bets to broke NH Finale

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