100 Bets to broke NH Finale

longshotvalue · 04-02-2011 11:48pm #1

Sandown 2:25
Reve De Sivola: Although his last run didn't look that great, his second last run was better. He was a top class novice hurdler finishing second to Peddlers Cross at the festival last year. I'm not convinced that there is a lot between the main contenders and he looks a bit of value at around 13 win and 3.5 to place.

2 Points win 2 Points Place

Sandown 3:00
Gee Dee Nen: Hasn't been consistent over fences this year but his last few runs over hurdles look decent considering his lower mark here. He was 3rd in the Lanzarote Handicap hurdle to Michael Flipps of a mark of 125 this time last year. He is in here of 122 with only 10:02 to carry and that makes him look competitive. Currently 70.0 to win and 8.0 to place. He certainly doesn't look that big to me on his hurdles form.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Sandown 3:35
Take the Breeze: I tipped him last week when he was a non runner, and nothing has changed except this is a weaker race. He is gone up 6lbs for his last very good run against an excellent yardstick in Massinis Maguire, and has a decent 5lb claimer on to offset that today. He looks a good bit clear of these on known form and could be well capable of giving weight all around. He looks a couple of points overpriced @ 5.2.

3 Points Win

Ffos Las: 2:40
Tarkari:, I'm going to go with gut feeling that this one might have a very decent chance of being second here, he is the choice over Barizan of the stable jockey, and none of the other rivals have any decent form on softer going. Currently he looks overpriced at about 5.2 and might get a bit bigger as the market strengthens.

2 Points Place

x PyRo · 05-02-2011 12:06am

Aidan, I've moved both of your threads into the log section. You'll get more views here also.

Best of luck with it and well done on the fourth consecutive profit with the last one, top notch stuff.

UrbanSea · 05-02-2011 12:12am

I'm on Reve tomorrow aswell,hope he comes in.

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 12:21am

x PyRo wrote: »

Aidan, I've moved both of your threads into the log section. You'll get more views here also.

Best of luck with it and well done on the fourth consecutive profit with the last one, top notch stuff.

thanks PyRo , ive never seen this section...

x PyRo · 05-02-2011 12:25am

It's by far the busiest on the Gambling forum so it's the best spot to have your thread.

Best of luck with all of them Sir.

Nulty · 05-02-2011 2:24am

I haven't looked at the races yet but I like all of those horses. I've backed them all at one time or another (Gee Dee Nen at Glorious Goodwood

:rolleyes:).

Take The Breeze was my fancy for the race that was abandoned at Haydock. He looks to have a good chance here but I think hes a much better horse on soft gropund and its officially good a Sandown. Still tempted...

Break a leg aidan

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 4:38pm

Sandown 4:05

King Edmund, he is back from a bit of a break on decent ground which should suit him. He had a few poor jumps in both starts early this season, and hopefully it has been sorted out for this. He looks a bit overpriced here at 10/1

2 Points win 10/1

thesandeman · 05-02-2011 9:05pm

Oops! Only found this thread now. Better late than never.

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 10:43pm

thesandeman wrote: »

Oops! Only found this thread now. Better late than never.

Lucky You missed a few loosers today

.

Sandown 2:25
Reve De Sivola: Never was running well at all, and surely cant be anywhere near his best yet.

Sandown 3:00
Gee Dee Nen: Went of 100/1 on betfair , Ran very well and was still coasting until the 3rd last, when he made a terrible mistake.. He look a well handicapped horse to me and could well do something soon...

Sandown 3:35
Take the Breeze: Didnt Stay after looking the most likely winner 2 out.

Ffos Las: 2:40
Tarkari:, Looked sure to place 2nd as expected but made a big mistake at the last...

thesandeman · 06-02-2011 1:31am

True. Dont worry. Your guardian angel is back on your shoulder for tomorrow lol.
(Although its looking like we wont have any Irish racing).

longshotvalue · 06-02-2011 4:02pm

15:35 Musselburgh

Bocamix: This is just a case of his price being too big, altough he has gone up massivly in the weights, his second to last run was very good in the context of this race. There he had a few horses behind rated well above even his new rating of 130 and that kind of run again might just give him a decent shot of placing, he has a reasonable racing weight of 11:02.. Currently 48 win 10.5 place

1 Point win 2 Point Place

longshotvalue · 08-02-2011 1:47pm

Southwell 3:45

Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

2 Points win 2 points Place

longshotvalue · 08-02-2011 4:51pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Southwell 3:45

Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

2 Points win 2 points Place

jeez absolutly flew in the end from last to just fail to get placed..:(

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 10:10am

totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
1 Point win 1 Point place.

Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Deloitte Novice Hurdle 2:45 Leopardstown

Si C'etait Vrai: Just looking at this race it appears to me that there is not a lot between the rest of the field apart from Zaidpour. This one should handle the ground and ran well last time over 2m4f at the course. He is currently double the price of The Bull Hayes having already beaten him before, and just looks value at currently 70 win and 8.4 place.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Bet On totescoop6 Handicap Chase Warwick 2:10

Panjo Bere: in a race with a lot of question marks over most of the runners, if he can be sparked back into form with the addition of blinkers, and reproduce the run is his second last race, he may be in with a shout here at a decent price. He is currently16/1 with Stan james
1 Point Eachway

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 10:29am

Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Non Runner

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 11:13am

Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Newbury 1:55

Ackertac: We will have to forgive him his last run, but the stable is in flying form now and his form earlier this season puts him in here with a great shout, he is a few points bigger that i tough he would be at 14/1 with stanjames and is worthy of a small win bet at those odds. The decent ground 3miles around here should suit him.

1 Point win 14/1 Stanjames

longshotvalue · 13-02-2011 1:04pm

Ladbrokes.com Boyne Hurdle 2:50 Navan

Oscar Dan Dan: In this race it looks to me as if there is nothing between most of the contenders bar Vol la Ved, he has good form over the course on the ground and returned to form last time over a trip to far in Gowran. If the Fav can reproduce her hattons grace run where she wasnt loosing any ground at the end, shell be miles clear of these, but the selection looks overpriced of the rest.

1 Point win 15.0 Betfair 2 points place 3.55

1 Point Exacta Vol la Ved / Oscar

longshotvalue · 13-02-2011 1:36pm

Betfair Graduation Chase Exeter 3:10

The Sliotar: He was supported first time out this season , but jumped badly and pulled up. If there is any chance he can reproduce his form of last season where he beat Blazing Baily twice on soft ground, he will be overpriced here. Trainer and jock have a great record at this course and he just looks overpriced at 12 to win on betfair. i would this 8 is more realistic.

2 Points win 12.0

longshotvalue · 15-02-2011 2:13pm

Southwell. 1:50

Dickie Le Davoir: His last run in a seller where all the other runners were much higher rated, he finished well enough in the context of this poor race. He has raced of much higher in the past and is much higher on betfair than with any of the bookies. Currently 15.5 win. There was money for him earlier but he is being layed now. He is worth a point at that price.

1 Point win

longshotvalue · 16-02-2011 3:28pm

Punchestown 2:45

Mr Meaner: he was midfield in a much stronger race behind So Young at Leopardstown, and look overpriced to place here currently at 11.0 to place. 79 to win. This look a much easier race than that one and with normal improvement he might get into a place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 17-02-2011 6:32pm

aidankk wrote: »

totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
1 Point win 1 Point place.

Running tomorrow at 1:50, in the rescheduled race. currently 65 win 10 place, still to big even tough the softer ground probably wont help.

longshotvalue · 17-02-2011 6:33pm

Newbury 12:10

Miss Overdrive : This one came second in a stonger C&D Race a couple or runs ago, and then ran well at chepstow as well. Has run 3 times on the course and placed each time. Also has form of soft going. She has a 7lbs claimer on this time that has got on well before. This really looks a missprice, i have it much shorter.

3 Pts Each Way 16/1 Bet365. also 20 win on betfair.

longshotvalue · 18-02-2011 10:15am

Newbury 1:50

Solix: This one has gone all the way out to 23 win 7.2 place, from fav last week, despite the fact that the soft going will clearly suit him. He has been out of the top drawer in france and may well be able to carry the weight around here. David Bass takes a very valuable 5lbs off and he is now looking value. There is clearly talent there considering the money for him last week, and i wouldnt be that surprised if he was able to get into it on the ground.

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue · 18-02-2011 5:13pm

Mayden 5:45

Frosty Secret: Ran well when pacemaking in a much tougher race last week here. 1 Furlong Shorter here should suit and if he can last the 7f he looks great value at 33/1 EW.

1 Point Each eay 33/1

longshotvalue · 19-02-2011 9:50am

totesport.com Grand National Trial 3:20 Haydock.

Carruthers: Although shorter than my usual type, his form looks rock solid compared to the rest of the field here. He has come down 8lbs for some reason after a decent run in the Hennessy, and is sure to appreciate the step up in trip and the soft going. He has a 5lbs claimer on tomorrow and of this mark may be very difficult to peg back. To me he just looks well treated and as such overpriced at 8.0, really he should be about 5.0 and favourite.
3 pts win 8.0.

Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Chase Ascot 2:25

The Sawyer: In my view he has been getting better with each run this year. He has just been to high in the handicap to do anything major yet this year, but he is in here off 6lbs below his last winning mark, with the 7lbs Claimer back on who has won on him before. His last run in a hot race at Cheltenham without the claimer on reads well considering he has dropped 3lbs and has an additional 7lbs off. He has run well over 3 miles in the past and is racing here carrying only 10:01 which will help. He is currently 20.0 to win on Betfair
2 pts win, 2 pts place

longshotvalue · 19-02-2011 9:53am

totesport.com Grand National Trial 3:20 Haydock.

Madison Du Berlais: I cant desert him now, and im hopeful that the slower pace here and a half decent handicap mark can help him stay on for a place or maybe better. He has looked a real stayer in recent years, and worth a smal bet

1 Point Each Way 33/1

longshotvalue · 23-02-2011 1:25pm

Doncaster 4:10

Night Orbit. This one just looks to big a price for his hurdles form of this mark. He has good form last year of higher marks, and is probably overpiced because of poor jumping in his last run over fences. His previous runs wernt to bad over fences this year and he has a decent flat run in early january as well. He is back over hurdles here over 3 miles on decent ground and it could be ideal.

1 Point each Way 50/1 Stan James

Probably better to back on betfair at 55 win and paying 4 places at 8.6, as there is 15 runners now

so 1 point win 1 point place

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 3:23pm

Sandown 4:35.

Dashing George: He has been running reasonably well this year in much stronger races of higher marks, and is in here of a decent mark of 119 over a 3mile trip on Soft Going which should really be ideal for him. He was effective in ireland on soft heavy over 3miles. He was well supported last time he ran in a similiar race but lost a shoe and was pulled up, but the previous reace signalled that he may be on the way back to good form. He now looks overpriced in this poorer race at 17 win 5.3 place

2 Points win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 3:37pm

Sandown 4:00

Aviador: Has been consistent in Novices and bumpers, and was well supported first time out in a handicap last time out, but its possible the 2 miles on good ground was not his thing. He has a decent record on softer going and the 2m4f around here on soft may be ideal. The booking of Richard Johnson might be significant as he has a 22% strike rate for the trainer in tha last 12 months.

2 Points Each way 25/1 VC..

jkelly85 · 25-02-2011 5:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Sandown 4:00

Aviador: Has been consistent in Novices and bumpers, and was well supported first time out in a handicap last time out, but its possible the 2 miles on good ground was not his thing. He has a decent record on softer going and the 2m4f around here on soft may be ideal. The booking of Richard Johnson might be significant as he has a 22% strike rate for the trainer in tha last 12 months.

2 Points Each way 25/1 VC..

SUPER SUPER STUFF

was on thanks

:D:D

jkelly85 · 25-02-2011 5:46pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Sandown 4:35.

Dashing George: He has been running reasonably well this year in much stronger races of higher marks, and is in here of a decent mark of 119 over a 3mile trip on Soft Going which should really be ideal for him. He was effective in ireland on soft heavy over 3miles. He was well supported last time he ran in a similiar race but lost a shoe and was pulled up, but the previous reace signalled that he may be on the way back to good form. He now looks overpriced in this poorer race at 17 win 5.3 place

2 Points win 2 Points Place

Unreal Man

that is some double

pints 2night i think

100 Bets to broke NH Finale

Comments