Töpher's Log

Töpher wrote: »

Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87 (Draw/Metz @ 5.10)

2-0 (:D 0-0 @ HT)

LSP: +13.41

W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

All I've gone for today is Villa, and I'm not confident enough in it to have written it up, :eek: - though I'm hoping thats just because of the derby factor .

Was working late last night, and gotta start making the way up to Ballybofey for the Shels match in a few, so haven't had (and won't get) much of a chance to go looking. Hoping to find something nice for tomorrow afternoon at some stage, but God only knows... :pac:

21.15 // Portugal // Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.1

Having started on the way up to Ballybofey, only to end up having to turn around as yet another match in that decrepid shíthole was called off, I've found myself with some time to look at tonights matches.

Braga (1st, 21pts) visit Rio Ave (7th, 10pts) who they have 11 points more than after only 7 games. Every match Braga have played so far this season has seen them take all the points on offer, hugely impressive start to the campaign.

Rio Ave have been solid enough so far this year, P6 W2 D4 L1, and their defence at home has been top notch - 3 games in and not a goal conceded on their own patch, this included a match against 5th place Nacional, and the two bottom placed sides. Their attack looks weak however, only scoring 3 at home in these games, and drawing 0-0 with bottom placed Academica in their last home match further demonstrates this lack of firepower.

Braga, P7 W7 D0 L0, can hardly hope to keep up this run forever, and although @ 2.08 for the win they could be tempting, I'd be worried about the late goals drying up and this finishing 0-0. They've had 3 clean sheets in a row, and have only conceded 3 in their 7 league games to date. Add to this that they can welcome back no fewer than 2 defenders for tonights match, and they could well be on course for another clean sheet.

5 of Braga's 7 games (and the last 4 in a row) have been all square at the break, with Braga hijacking all the points in the second half, with alot of the winning goals coming close to the death. This has to end sometime, hence my hesitation to back them outright. But with the form of their backline I don't fancy them to be losing at half time, and given the difficulties they've come across against getting past teams that will be looking to first and foremost not lose, and couple in Rio Ave's defence at home so far, a goalless first half would not be a surprise.

Töpher wrote: »

Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.1

1-1 @ HT. I was expecting 0-0, but they all count! Game finished up 1-1 by the way, Braga's immense winning streak halted.

LSP: +14.51

W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08

Decimal's much easier! Not too sure about tomorrow, but Milan @ 2.16 (6/5) away to Chievo does look tempting.

I think for the purposes of tracking the bets I think too much about, putting them up as singles does the job, but if I've put a few up here in a short space of time I'll usually multiple them up (last time I did that all 3 bets lost!) :pac: I don't tend to have much luck beyond singles though, and it provides a good ground for the LSP.

14.30 // Austria // Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18 (Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84)

Only a quick one on this, it starts soon. Vienna are joint top of the table and will look at this match against Linz as the perfect opportunity to add 3 more points to their tally and hopefully add some to the GD column. Their attack has not scored qhat they'd like so far this year, but today brings the chance to change all that and claw back some of the goal difference at the top.

Linz's 5 away games to date have been insane. F10 A18, only picking up 1 point in the process. All of these games have had at least 2 goals in the first half, with some seeing up to 4! Their home games have seen similar amounts of goals, with one even seeing 7 in the first half(!). They're strong at the front and weak at the back, a dream for backing high scoring games!

18.00// Denmark; SAS Ligen // AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85

Both of these teams have been on shocking runs of form since they last met 6 matches ago, both only picking up 3 points in the 5 games since AGF won 2-0 in Nordsjælland a few weeks ago.

AGF are the favourites here (@ 1.94), but with 4 defeats from their last 5 games, I'd be looking for higher (although only 1 of these was at home). These defeats are not down to instantly becoming poor (a win today would put them within 5 points of the top of the table) but more to do with the sheer unfortunate circumstances that have befallen their back line of late, with an influx of suspensions and injuries hitting them hard, so they are finding it impossible to keep a clean sheet at the moment, conceding in their last 5 (and in 9 from 12 so far this season). With the suspensions passed, they will be without no less than 3 regular defenders through injury for this evenings match, and given that their last 5 home matches have seen them concede a staggering 10 goals, shipping another tonight would be no surprise. They have the flair and ability to score goals (those same 5 home matches have also seen them score 10), but when they can't stop letting them in I'm reluctant to put money on the outright win.

Nordsjælland have lost 7 of their last 8 matches, but these are not all by large margins. They've shipped 10, and scored 5, in their last 5 away matches (though the last one, a 6-3 away to Brondby, skews the stats somewhat, there's been plenty of 1-0's). Realistically, they're poor up front, very poor, their last 8 league matches have seen them fail to score on 6 occassions - but on the back of scoring 3 away to Brondby, and with AGF's trouble, they'll be looking for more tonight.

The last 3 meetings between these sides produced unders, with the 6 before that all reaching overs. AGF's last 5 home matches have reached overs, and while only 1 of Nordsjælland's last 5 away games has reached overs, with AGF gunning to turn their form around and knowing they should take this, hopefully their defence worries them enough to take attack as the best form of defence.

Might also take a look at 3-1 @ 17.5, just for fun.

Maybe, I was approaching it from the standpoint that the home side have enough in attack to reach overs while keeping a clean sheet, should such an event happen.

Cue a 1-1 result now, :pac:.

19.00 // France; Ligue 2 // Arles v Dijon @ 2.18

Arles (4th, 19pts) host Dijon (15th, 11pts) and will be hoping to keep up the pace with the top few clubs in Ligue 2, something they've done quite well at so far since their promotion. They're in a reasonable patch of form at the moment, with their last loss being 5 games ago away to Tours (who are on fire at home this season). Since then they've drawn 2 and won 2. Their only other loss this season (and only game in which they failed to score all season) was away to the mightily impressive Caen. Their home record is decent enough, P5 W3 D2 L0, F8 A5. They had a few tricky results lately, drawing at home with Vannes and Angers and only beating bottom placed Bastia 1-0, but they followed this up by going away to 6th place Laval and grinding out a 1-0 victory, something they will be hoping to further build on tonight.

Dijon are without a win in their last 5, drawing 3 and losing 2. They've yet to win on the road this year, and have only kept 1 clean sheet, away stats read P6 W0 D4 L2, F4 A8. Their last 4 away games have all been draws, but even managing that tonight will be difficult given their injury woes.

Dijon will be missing 7 first team regulars for tonights match, including their first choice keeper, some defenders, and several midfielders. Arles have failed to score more than 1 in their last 4 games, which is a concern (though they have scored in each of their 6 games since they played Caen), but have kept 2 clean sheets in a row, and against a side drafting in so many players that will be lacking match fitness and sharpness, 1 goal could well be enough.

Töpher wrote: »

Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76

:mad: 1-0

Töpher wrote: »

Arles v Dijon @ 2.18

:mad: 0-0

Thought it made sense to take a day or two away following that dreaded (and still current) run of form, trying to dig my way out of it was only realistically going to end up with the outcome of more and more red.

LSP: +9.51

.L (1 - 0) Greuther Fürth v VfB Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.76
.L (0 - 0) Arles v Dijon @ 2.18
.L (0 - 2) AGF v Nordsjælland - Over 2.5 @ 1.85
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 3.5 @ 2.18
.L (3 - 0) Austria Vienna v LASK Linz - Over 1.5 in first half @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Rio Ave v Sporting Braga - HT draw @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp - draw HT/FT Metz @ 5.10
W (2 - 0) Metz v Guingamp @ 1.87
.L (2 - 1) Viborg v Vejle - Under 2.5 @ 2.08
.L (2 - 1) Bordeaux v Bayern Munich - draw @ 3.45
W (3 - 0) Blackpool v Sheffield United @ 2.56
W (2 - 1) Sporting Fingal v Limerick - Over 2.5 @ 1.83
W (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth @ 1.77
.L (3 - 1) Bristol City v Plymouth - Under 2.5 @ 1.76
W (2 - 2) Nantes v Metz - Over 2.5 @ 2.44
W (1 - 2) Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth - Over 2.5 @ 1.78
W (2 - 0) Monaco v Lens @ 1.74
W (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 2.5 @ 1.46
.L (2 - 0) Larissa v Xanthi - Under 1.5 @ 2.52
W (1 - 2) Crewe Alexandra v Port Vale - Over 2.5 @ 1.93
.L (2 - 1) Charlton Athletic v Huddersfield Town - draw @ 3.50
W (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.63
.L (1 - 2) Freiburg v Bayern Munich - Bayern Clean Sheet @ 2.80
W (1 - 0) Arminia Bielefeld v Alemannia Aachen - Under 2.5 @ 2.10
W (2 - 0) Real Salt Lake v New York Red Bulls @ 1.80
.L (0 - 1) Raith Rovers v Inverness @ 2.74
.L (0 - 0) Ross County v Dunfermline @ 2.16
.L (2 - 0) Brighton v Gillingham - over 2.5 @ 2.14
.L (3 - 0) Náutico v Palmeiras -0&-0.5 @ 2.09
W (1 - 3) Cadiz v Cartagena (+0.5) @ 1.82
.L (1 - 1) Real Betis v Real Union - Over 2.5 @ 2.02
W (2 - 2) Ireland v Italy - Draw @ 2.86
.L (5 - 0) France v Faroe Islands - Under 2.5 @ 5.10
W (0 - 1) Carlisle v Norwich @ 2.44
.L (0 - 0) FC Omniworld v Zwolle @ 1.94
W (2 - 1) Falkenbergs v Landskrona - Over 2.5 @ 1.84
W (1 - 1) Fluminese v Corinthians - Draw @ 3.35
W (2 - 0) Hercules v Huesca @ 1.72
W (0 - 1) Gillingham v Norwich @ 2.44
W (3 - 1) Duisburg v Union Berlin - Over 2.5 @ 1.92
W (1 - 0) Sporting Lisbon v Hertha Berlin - Sporting Clean Sheet @ 2.08[/QUOTE]

23.00 // Brazil; Serie A // Sport Recife v Coritiba @ 1.78 (Over 2.5 @ 1.76)

This game is going to be huge (hope I can find a decent stream)! Sport Recife are on the hunt for safety, following a disasterous season, and with a bit of luck might just do it - a win tonight would see them 3 points behind the currently 'safe' Botafogo, with 6 games to play.

Up until recently, Sport Recife were a virtually guaranteed lay, home or away (they still haven't won on the road, actually!). This all seems to have changed with a 2-0 home win over 10th placed Vitoria a few games ago, and their results have improved ten-fold since. Not too long ago their away record read P10 W0 D2 L8, it now reads P16 W0 D6 L10 - it still doesn't look great, but they've only lost 2 of their last 6 on the road, and have started to pick up increasingly valuable points on their travels. Their home record is whats really interesting, before this turning point at home to Vitoria they had a record reading P10 W3 D2 L5 - now its a much healthier P15 W7 D2 L6, they've won 4 of their last 5 home games, scoring 2 in each game they won, and keeping 2 clean sheets (they only kept 1 at home all season prior to this), losing 1-0 to Santos being the only blemish of late.

Coritiba are poor on the road, and sit in relative safety, 5 points clear of the relegation zone, thanks to a reasonable home record. Away form is P15 W2 D4 L9, so it's no surprise that they've only picked up 2 points from their last 5 away games. A win away to rock bottom Fluimenese punctuates those 2 points with 1 point from their previous 5 away games.

This game is a must win for Sport Recife, the proverbial cup final if you will (as is every game at the moment) and they've performed admirably of late and have started what they hope will turn into the great escape. The defence is still dodgy, so Coribita scoring won't be a huge surprise, and increases the chances of overs somewhat.

I'm also dropping a few pennies onto the 2-1 scoreline @ 9.80, fingers crossed.