Boxfresh's Betting System

In_tuition · 14-10-2009 12:58am

I know you've more cop on and respect for other punters than to be knocking them, but when a few people start to gather and ask questions well you know yourself, the proverbial onslaught usually ensues

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 9:08am

wb wrote: »

Ah no, I'm not knocking the guy.

But I do worry when people start talking about a 9% ROI etc and I'm wondering if they understand the term fully. Of course it's going to show a positive ROI if you work out the ROI following a successful bet! But how about working out ROI in the middle of a losing run?

Boxfresh, I'm not trying to moan about what you are doing - just saying be careful with loss-chasing and the readers of the thread should be too.

My understanding of ROI (return on investment) is quite simple. I take all the money invested, add it up, and work out the return that I then convert to a percentage. If there is some other way of doing it please let me know.
There is a big difference between this and Roulette. In Roulette you are betting at even money when the odds are against you 19/18. In Boxfreshs system the odds on element gives a much better strike rate. In horse racing for example 74% of favourites priced at 1/2 and worse win. I imagine football is much the same. Boxfresh has a strike rate in line with what you would expect at almost 71%

wb · 14-10-2009 9:53am

But my point is that you cannot work out ROI on something like this.

You are choosing to work out the ROI after each successful bet. If we worked it out after each bet (including the losing bets) most times the ROI would be negative.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking his selections - indeed, he's had some good bets. But I'd suggest that if they are profitable to level stakes, there are safer ways to go about making money from them.

Boxfresh · 14-10-2009 10:12am

Sorry guys I haven't got time to reply to all your comments cos I'm at work but I'll try and get to them this evening. You might see me online all the time but that's cos I'm always logged on when using boards.ie on my mobile and peeking in from time to time.

At the start of this thread I think I said somewhere that if I was to reach a series of 6 bets that I would call that a fail. I also said that I was using virtual money but I am actually doing these bets with much smaller stakes.

I initially started this thread to test out this system. I seen it somewhere else where the guy made €600 profit in 3 or 4 months. I'm aiming for €500 but it's working out alot slower for me! Hope that answer some questions.

wb · 14-10-2009 10:16am

That answers my questions perfectly Boxfresh - thanks, and best of luck.

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 10:22am

wb wrote: »

But my point is that you cannot work out ROI on something like this.

You are choosing to work out the ROI after each successful bet. If we worked it out after each bet (including the losing bets) most times the ROI would be negative.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking his selections - indeed, he's had some good bets. But I'd suggest that if they are profitable to level stakes, there are safer ways to go about making money from them.

I dont understand what you mean by that. All the sites that track tipsters work out ROI the same way I do. They dont work it on each individual bet. If they did that how would they come up with an ROI figure?
So far he has invested 540 and made a profit of 49. I make that an ROI 8.32%. If I had 29 different ROI figures, one for each bet, it would be meaningless.

wb · 14-10-2009 10:36am

Yes, you are correct in how you calculate ROI - but my point is that you worked it out after a winning sequence.

Let's say he hits a losing run now and his next stake is more than the 49 profit...

Then, that bet loses. If you work out the ROI at that point, it would be negative.

My point is that you are waiting until the end of each sequence to work out the ROI.

That's why ROI is meaningless on loss-chasing. I'm not quibbling with the figures.

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 11:12am

wb wrote: »

Yes, you are correct in how you calculate ROI - but my point is that you worked it out after a winning sequence.

Let's say he hits a losing run now and his next stake is more than the 49 profit...

Then, that bet loses. If you work out the ROI at that point, it would be negative.

My point is that you are waiting until the end of each sequence to work out the ROI.

That's why ROI is meaningless on loss-chasing. I'm not quibbling with the figures.

I worked it out on all the information that was available. He had 29 bets in total. I didnt wait till he had a winner. There is no other way of doing it.

Boxfresh · 14-10-2009 5:49pm

Bet 1: €10 England half time/full time @ 1.63

Net profit €39.33 +€10 in play

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 9:13pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

Bet 1: €10 England half time/full time @ 1.63

Net profit €39.33 +€10 in play

Early goal. Good luck.

Boxfresh · 14-10-2009 9:54pm

Bet 1: €10 England half time/full time @ 1.63 WIN €15.99

Net profit €55.32

Vurnon San Benito · 14-10-2009 9:56pm

Nice net profit, especially these days!

POINTBREAK · 14-10-2009 10:12pm

Ive been thinking about this Box. The main problem seems to be that you cant have enough bets to make it really profitable, mainly because you have to wait for each result before you can place the next bet. At the minute its working out an average of about 1.90 profit per bet, but its difficult to get more than about 10 bets a week if that, and its only 19 euro on average per week profit at best. I reckon you should expand to include all odds on chances in all other sports. The percentage of them that win works out much the same as the football bets.

wb · 15-10-2009 11:59am

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

Here's some interesting stats for UK and IRE racing - not sure how football would compare.

Since 2003, there has been 10269 horses priced between 1/2 and even money. 5362 of these won (52.22%) and a level stakes loss of 795.13 points was incurred.

There were twelve winners in a row on two occasions
There were ten winners in a row on three occasions
There were eight winners in a row on 18 occassions

There were twelve losers in a row on one occasion
There were eight losers in a row on ten occasions
There were six losers in a row on 38 occasions

Sorry Boxfresh - going off topic here but just found the racing stats interesting.

POINTBREAK · 15-10-2009 12:08pm

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

I think he said he was doing this on Betfair?

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 12:15pm

wb wrote: »

He could try racing but as everyone knows, the bookmaker over-round is hard to beat.

Here's some interesting stats for UK and IRE racing - not sure how football would compare.

Since 2003, there has been 10269 horses priced between 1/2 and even money. 5362 of these won (52.22%) and a level stakes loss of 795.13 points was incurred.

There were twelve winners in a row on two occasions
There were ten winners in a row on three occasions
There were eight winners in a row on 18 occassions

There were twelve losers in a row on one occasion
There were eight losers in a row on ten occasions
There were six losers in a row on 38 occasions

Sorry Boxfresh - going off topic here but just found the racing stats interesting.

Interesting stuff wb. 6 losers in a row would wipe me out and I see it happened on 38 occasions there which seems like quite alot. It would be interesting to see what these stats would be like in football.
No doubt I will hit losing streaks in this system but with a few decent bets and if I put a bit of thought into the bets I do, I'll try and limit that losing streak.

I don't go near the horses anymore anyway. With football you've got win lose or draw - 3 choices. Or the over/unders market - 2 choices. Your either right or wrong. In horse racing you've got anything from 5 to 20 choices which makes it more difficult.

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 12:16pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I think he said he was doing this on Betfair?

Yeah, Betfair all they way.

POINTBREAK · 15-10-2009 12:32pm

Favourite

Outcome
Return

Bets
Win
Place
Win
E/W
Less than 1-2
5122
75%
87%
99%
99%

Less that 1/2 with 75% Strike rate might work. Even if you backed the all.

wb · 15-10-2009 1:18pm

Ah yes I see he's using Betfair but just saying the data is for traditional SP.

It's hard to data mine the Betfair data as yet (which is a shame).

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 5:11pm

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84

Net profit €45.32 + €10 in play

Töpher · 15-10-2009 5:50pm

Boxfresh wrote: »

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84

Net profit €45.32 + €10 in play

Good luck with that, I was thinking of the same following Ronnie's public apology and lashing of his latest permformance when he threw away the 3-1 lead, he's going to be out for blood now. I think I'm going to avoid to it personally, but hope it comes in for ya!

Töpher · 15-10-2009 9:27pm

Nicely done, he took a 3-0 lead, pegged back to 3-2, and then won the last frame. 4-2 overall. Good call.

Boxfresh · 15-10-2009 9:37pm

Bet 1: €10 Snooker - Ronnie O Sullivan to beat Shaun Murphy @ 1.84 WIN €17.98

Net profit €63.30

POINTBREAK · 17-10-2009 10:31am

Box. I have an idea to increase your profits. At the minute the total bank you have allowed is
10+20+40+80+160+320 Total 630 If you changed your staking system to..
20+40+60+80+160+270 Total 630.

Same amount of money at risk, but the advantage is your first 3 bets are significantly more that at present........ your 4th and 5th bet is the same and your last bet is only reduced by 50 points if it ever did go pear shaped. I think this staking system might increase you profits significantly.

L'prof · 17-10-2009 10:49am

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Box. I have an idea to increase your profits. At the minute the total bank you have allowed is
10+20+40+80+160+320 Total 630 If you changed your staking system to..
20+40+60+80+160+270 Total 630.

Same amount of money at risk, but the advantage is your first 3 bets are significantly more that at present........ your 4th and 5th bet is the same and your last bet is only reduced by 50 points if it ever did go pear shaped. I think this staking system might increase you profits significantly.

Sure, run over his bets with that system and see what he would be at now.

POINTBREAK · 17-10-2009 10:56am

I dont have time just now, but most of his bets have been 10 or 20 with a few 40 bets and that is showing a profit. If they were all 20 and 40 bets with a few 60's Its almost certain to nearly double his profit on what he has done up to now.

Boxfresh · 17-10-2009 12:32pm

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE

Net profit €53.30

Boxfresh · 18-10-2009 1:00pm

Bet 1: €10 DOUBLE: Arsenal to beat Birmingham & Everton to beat Wolves @ 1.7 LOSE
Bet 2: €20 Man City to beat Wigan @ 1.96 LOSE

Net profit €33.30

POINTBREAK · 18-10-2009 10:33pm

Its hard enough Box without doing doubles.

Boxfresh · 18-10-2009 10:36pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Its hard enough Box without doing doubles.

That's true. I was going to do Everton alone on that one so I thought I'd stick Arsenal on aswell. I seen Arsenal as a guaranteed win, which they did. I'll stick with the singles from now on though

Boxfresh's Betting System

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