France v Wales (pre/during/post thread)

The key to this fixture is which French team will show up. Will it be the daring, skillful, inventive team that narrowly lost to Ireland in Croke Park, or will it be the group that lined out against a poor Scottish team and almost look like a group of disinterested dilettantes?

The French, as always, are an enigma. On one hand they could easily have upset the new-found optimism in Irish rugby by winning in Dublin, but were the victims of an inspired Irish performance and deserved victory, although perhaps arguably a questionable penalty count. On the other, they togged out in Paris against an impotent Scottish team, and almost looked as if they were challenging themselves to see how badly they could play and how disinterested they could look, while still managing to scrape a victory.

They possess all the personnel and skills to beat a confident and capable Welsh outfit, who stuttered to a victory in Murrayfield, before disposing of a resurgent England in Cardiff. There are injury doubts over pivot Lionel Beauxis, who injured his back playing for Stade Francais on Friday, and props Lecouls and Mas remain unavailable, with 71 times capped Sylvain Marconnet called into the squad for front row cover. Despite calls for David Skrela to be included as cover for Beauxis, Marc Lievremont has continued with Benoit Baby in the back division squad despite his poor form of late.

Wales will be delighted to welcome record try scorer Shane Williams back into the starting fifteen, after he missed the England match due to a ankle injury. Gavin Henson is also believed to be back to fitness, although it remains to be seen if he will break-up the successful centre pairing of Jamie Roberts and Tom Shanklin, and may have to settle for a place on the bench. Coach Warren Gatland is likely to stick with the same pack who lined up against England, and they will need a top-shelf performance from 1 to 22 if they are going to come away from Paris with a 100% record.

It remains a very tough match to call. Wales will travel full of optimism, but the experience of Gatland, Edwards et al will ensure that they are pragmatic about the task they face. It will take a huge performance from Wales to win, as France rarely lose on their home turf. France will be up for this, although it was interesting to see Marc Lievremont engage in some pre-match psychology regarding the scheduling of the match for 9pm (local), which will be the first ever Six Nations match on a Friday. Regardless of the time, I think France will be up for it, and will not be as complacent as the previous game against Scotland.

If both squads are fully fit, I can see France winning this by five to ten points. If Beauxis is out, that would be a massive blow for France, and we could see an ill-fated experiment at outhalf which could be the end of their chances. On the other hand, Wales will probably travel in full-health, unless there is any late development over Jamie Roberts' shoulder, although that is unlikely. Wales will not fear Paris, as they've won three of their previous five visits, and if they get on top early, the Parisien crowd may not be long to get on their team's back, but a moment of magic from the French backline could see them right back in it.

The game is likely to hinge on two or three vital moments, and also the boots of the respective outhalves. We're all hoping to see free-flowing rugby and great handling, and certainly the players are there on both sides to produce a fantastic game. I'll reserve final prediction until both teams are announced, but at the moment, it's France by a nose.