Tips thread.

Newmarket 2.10
Top weight Zafonical Storm needs the rains to come for him to be competitive off the head of the weights so he can be easily discounted unless the heavens open between now and Saturday. Of the rest of the field, The Illies looks handicapped up to his best (his two wins last season when stepped up to this trip came off 68 and 74 and now he runs off 82 which he raced off last time out last season. He was well beaten that day but it could easily be that the ground was too soft for him that day but I would think he might have to be dropped a pound or two before becoming competitive again. Danebury Hill is likely to be supported as Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride but whilst the jockey has had rides and winners for the stable over the years, backing them to a level stake has yielded a pretty poor return with a level stakes loss of -£36.14 to a £1 level stake. I am also of the opinion that the horse runs his best races when fresh so having had two starts so far this season, I would rather see him rested for a few weeks and come back in the summer to bounce back to form .He may also have too much weight to carry as well. Of today's mark Thunder Storm Cat looks weighted up to the hilt and looks unlikely to prove that connections were wise to spend $350,000 purchasing this one as a two year old. Will pick up a race or two but at a lower level than he contests today, and I would also rather see Joe Fanning or Jimmy Fortune in the saddle than the albeit capable apprentice and he can be opposed here .As with the above two, similiar comments apply to Aqmaar regards it's handicap mark and although he ran well first time up at Newbury he could easily be another that runs well first time out and can be opposed if running back so soon after that first run of the season.
That leaves us with three horses to concentrate on and Voodoo Moon could easily be the pace angle as one of the few front runners in the race he could have his own way up front and the stable have won this race twice in the last five years .If he is available at 5/1 or better then he would be worth a bet along with my main fancy in the race which is Farleigh House from the Mark Tompkins stable who are one to keep an eye on in the next few weeks as they just start to wind things up again (Had 1st winner of the season on Wednesday).He didn't run badly on his last three starts last season and looked like he was one that would continue to progress as a three year old so if fully wound up for this then I expect him to take all the beating. Hopefully the fact that the Dunlop, Jarvis, Hills stables etc are all represented we should get a reasonable price about Farleigh House(hopefully 5/1 or bigger) and if both Voodoo Moon and Farleigh house go off 5/1 or bigger then worth backing both to cover both at around 3/1 coupled or bigger.

Selection: Farleigh House

Danger: Voodoo Moon


2.45
This looks the odds on banker of the day here with Sir Michael Stoute's Echelon looking head and shoulders above her rivals. She is already proven in Group 3 company whereas likely market rival Abhishkea is a good handicapper but has been beaten her last twice when racing above that grade. The rest of the field look like they are just playing for some black type from being placed and anything Evs or better would be very very good value in my opinion about Echelon.



3.25 2,000 Guineas

The big race of the season so far,and a little of the gloss has been taken off it with Teofillio's withdrawal at the last minute but I think there is a massive bet to be had at ridiculously large odds which are still available with William Hills as I speak.

Firstly, the ones to avoid.Addagio is a seriously short price for a horse who to these eyes looks below Group 1 class so far.The Craven he won at the last meeting was full off average horses for the grade and he was entitled to beat them as he did so I would want to be against him at the prices at present(3/1 favourite).If you have backed him at double figures plus during the winter after his run in the Dewhurst then fair play to you but he has not proven to me that he is worthy of the mantle of Guineas favourite in his two good runs so far.Diamond Tycoon was beaten first time up last season by an 82 rated handicapper from the John Gosden stable who was beaten off that mark at Windsor last time out and whilst he may well have been visually impressive in that Newbury win, the facts remain that he is still just a Maiden winner with it all to prove back in this grade and at this track.As with Addagio, if you are on at fancy odds then fair do's but no way do either of them deserve to so high up in the betting purely on what they have shown on the track so far.Major Cadeaux and Dutch Art both look sprinters and I wouldn't read too much into the form of the Greenham at Newbury last time out as Major Cadeuax had the run of the race from the front and won't be able to do so in such a big field, and with many others wanting to be up with the pace as well(a plethora of also rans will try and win it from the front).
For me the best bet of the meeting has to be Eagle Mountain each way at a massive 40/1 with William Hills.

He ran poorly on his final start of last season in the Racing Post Trophy at Newbury behind Authorised but that ground was not to his liking that day and if we take that race out of the equation, he would be going into the big race with forms of 51221.The two defeats were a shd defeat behind Teofillio and a half length defeat when staying on at 7f when Vital Equine beat him at York in a course record time in the Champagne Stakes.He won a Group 2(Beresford Stakes) at the Curragh next time out over today's distance so we know he stays this far so no stamina worries with this one.He does have entries in the Dante, Derby, Irish Derby/St.Leger but for me the most illuminating comments came from Aidan O'Brien after that Racing Post Trophy defeat in that he wasn't sure if he stayed any further than this trip so don't be put off by those entries indicating that he is going to be in need of further.A Group winner, Group 2 placed runner who is at such big odds with a top jockey on board as Christophe Soumillion riding and he is drawn right in the middle of the field he can go whichever side is better paced and be in front as they come out of the Dip and run all the way to the line and he has to be backed as a 10pt e/w maximum at the current odds.he may well be Tom Segal's Pricewise tip and I expect him to be a fair bit shorter come race time.

Selection:Eagle Mountain(NAP)


4.00

Another big field race covering the complete field and two look well primed to run well here from Northern stables.

Firstly, David Nicholls has had Kerrin McEvoy booked for his runner since Monday and it was originally meant to be Machinist who no longer takes his chance so the fact he still rides Ice Planet who was just touched off in the race last season is a tip in itself.He did have a run prior to this race last season so you might want to have a look at him in the paddock to make sure he looks fit enough to do himself justice.If he does then back accordingly as he will have had this as his plan over the winter then.

The other one that I am very interested in, and hopefully we can get a 10/1+ price on him is Fullanby who finished like a train under Kevin Darley last time out at Beverley over a furlong shorter than today.Met trouble in running that day as he made his run and since the trip was always going to be too short for him he did well to get as close as he did that day.Drawn right on the far side, and as the field split into either two or three groups he will be held up in last place before being brought through to attempt to get involved in the finish.The track, ground and trip will all suit him and the jockey booking is also a good one as Darley has won on the horse previously.

4.35

Not a race that I have a very strong opinion on but if pushed I would have to say that Acapulco looked impressive when winning 1st time out earlier in the season and with so many imponderables in the race he is where I would start looking at for a bet but only of we can get around 2/1 or better,if shorter than that then might be time to try and get in a queue for an ice cream to cool down(or a pint to get even more pished lol).

5.10

The booking of Soumillion looks significant for Jeremy Noseda's Overrule in a race that shouldn't take too much winning but again he is likely to be overbet and short priced so not sure I would be that bothered in having a bet here either.

5.45
Interesting jockey booking in John Egan for Impeller is the one that catches my eye.Not because he rides the horse(he has ridden plenty before) but more that he gives up his ride on Ebor winner Mudawin who he was booked for earlier in the week.Impeller came from way back at Epsom last time, and whilst he does need everything to fall his way, this race will be well within his compass and at around 5/1 or bigger I would like to bet him in this race at those odds..

Hope this helps and if they all get beat remember they didn't come from me lol..

Steven

kincsem wrote:

5th of 24. A fair run, slightly blocked about 1f out, but probably not quick enough.

1 ..... Cockney Rebel (IRE) 15 G A Huffer 3 9-0 O Peslier 25/1
2 1½ Vital Equine (IRE) 6 E J O´Neill 3 9-0 Chris Catlin 33/1
3 ¾ Dutch Art 18 P W Chapple-Hyam 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune 14/1
4 shd Duke Of Marmalade (IRE) 11 A P O´Brien 3 9-0 M J Kinane 14/1
5 ½ Eagle Mountain 13 A P O´Brien 3 9-0 C Soumillon 14/1
6 hd Major Cadeaux 7 R Hannon 3 9-0 Richard Hughes 10/1
7 ½ US Ranger (USA) 16 J-C Rouget 3 9-0 C-P Lemaire 5/1
8 1¼ Strategic Prince 14 P F I Cole 3 9-0 Eddie Ahern 8/1
9 1 Diamond Tycoon (USA) 2 B J Meehan 3 9-0 Jamie Spencer 15/2
10 ¾ Haatef (USA) 17 Kevin Prendergast 3 9-0 D P McDonogh 7/1

Looked to be caught for toe early doors, stayed on strongly at the end which would suggest he may well be a Derby horse.

We've been waiting for this horse for the last 6 months.

My advice for you today would be to back Breaker Morant in the 2.55 in Limerick.

16s.

I'll be having a serious enough gamble. Got word from the yard.

Going in, 11.0 on betfair.

conZ wrote:

I watched that race in the bookies by chance, hadn't him backed at all - didn't realise he was racing until I heard him battling for second and I was sickened.

He was jumping well until about the 4th out, then he didn't impress after that. Was about 20 lengths behind the winner as far as I remember. Definately keep him on the tracker though.

They bought him for like €1500 a while back apparantly in Quin, Clare I think, but has excelled something serious since they brought him to England.

tipp mid west 2nd today at 25/1 - forgot to put him in horsetracker - DOH!

i got a tip for fair along in the same race also a new source but you never know it came from someone who never usually backs horses

Get in! Got 11/1, wins at 11/2.

Can you blow your own trumpet in here?

steveymp@hotmai wrote:

All depends if you can reach it or not;)

Good tippy that but

I can, but it hurts me back!