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Housing Bubble Bursting

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,494 ronbyrne2005


    A property price correction will benefit economy in long run, in short run there will be losers but theres always winners and losers in every market.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    I can find no fault whatsoever with Pa's summary , post of the week.

    Agree hugely. Excellent post.

    I would really be interested in seeing an equally well written retort from a 'bull'.

    On a similar topic did anyone hear the todayFM prerecorded post-new year summary of the housing market, excellent 'debated' by a prop from myhome.ie and sherryfitzgerald! Of course as it was recorded, and as Matt Cooper didn't make one effort to dampen their spiel, it sounded like an advertisement for a property party.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    As the bubble unwinds
    • Interest rates go up.
    • Banks tighten their criteria for lending.
    • Unemployment rises and jobs are tougher to find.
    • Bad debts start to mount as businesses fold.
    • Investors who are undercapitalised rush to sell else they go bankrupt.
    • Peoples appetite for extending themselves to get on the ladder evaporates as fears over job security take precedence.
    • Government tax revenue nose dives, its costs increase, leading to huge deficits.

    My issue is not with your use of data all of which speaks for itself aside from one point. 90,000 units from what I can see just refers to units. What proportion was affordable/social housing? If the government is to believed about
    Part V of the Planning Act 2000 Housing Targets
    we can expect to see nearly 50,000 homes under the scheme over the coming years. How can or would you account for this?

    I do however question the conclusions you have come to and whether you have taken everything into account. IMO they are not ineluctable truths.


    Interest rates are increasing

    Yes this is true and based on the normal effect of such increases it should help cool the market by making money more expensive, though not necessarily make it crash. Jim Power

    Banks tighten their criteria for lending

    My impression was that this has started and that credit card debt is to be included in loan evaluations. I don't believe that banks here in general will go beyond that 100% threshold and I would hope that people are not stupid enough to do so.


    Unemployment Rises

    This is questionable and could be affected by any number of other factors such as higher energy costs,wage inflation or lower cost economies.

    Notwithstanding that, the proportion of non-nationals per sector is currently not measured and therefore unknown.
    Dan O'Brien Irish Times 06/01/07 Link.
    data on national/non-national composition of employees at a sectoral level are not gathered

    It is believed that there are many EU nationals in the construction industry. Given that many EU migrants are here for economic reasons how increased unemployment might be affect them or what they might do is also unknown. If only Irish nationals were affected then the comment might hold.

    IMO it is impossible therefore to adduce that the unemployment rate will rise. More workers could lose their jobs but how can we determine what group it will affect most and more importantly how that will translate itself across the various economic sectors ?

    Bad debts start to mount as businesses fold

    There does not seem to be much evidence of this particularly as last year was the best year for company liquidations in 20 years
    , although it does acknowledge that some newer companies in construction have suffered.

    Investors who are undercapitalised rush to sell else they go bankrupt

    This assumes first and foremost that the crash will occur and the two elements above will happen as you state.

    What types of investors do you mean? If I as a private investor buy a new house and I am VAT registered I can claim that VAT back. This could be used for kit out and possibly reducing some of my 100% exposure. This does not really strike me as a recipe for bankruptcy.


    Peoples appetite for extending themselves to get on the ladder evaporates as fears over job security take precedence

    When people don't buy they still have to live somewhere. This should then create more demand for rental properties thus negating the previous scenario.

    Government tax revenue nose dives, its costs increase, leading to huge deficits

    Again the costs here assume we know what way the unemployment will affect the various sectors.
    If you look through the economics of the last 15-20 years you will find frugality - Ruari Quinn
    common sense - Mac the Knife and The Tallaght Strategy
    crystal ball genius Charlie McCreevy and the SSIA
    and financial nous 12.5% corporation tax.

    Deficits can usually be resolved by swingeing cuts, tax increases and borrowing. The first two are certainly within the instant control of government.

    Finally how do you factor in the SSIA? Given that it is valued at €15 billion where does that fit into your analysis?

    In conclusion I don't take the view that there will an economic meltdown as the original article suggests. I find it hard to believe that data as presented.

    The original article used Arizona as an example. Arizona like Florida is a recreational state and it would be open to wild speculation. The bubble in the US was localised. Massachussets however is a state that is more similar to Ireland in economy and it might be more representative of what could happen. 12-13% correction is not impossible and that would serve as a warning.

    Equally his use of The Netherlands is a poor example as it was already in an economic recession after 9/11 so would not have been a healthy position in 2003.

    Economists have never really been here before. They are guessing, digging up models to provide answers to something that keeps going on and on and
    that "can't possibly continue".

    Ultimately I am with George Lee on this . I neither trust nor believe economists at face value and I am dubious about reports at the best of times. The latest US Jobs data has just reinforced this. Yet again they got it spectacularly wrong -50% out.

    As regards those posters looking to jump into the market , it might be best to see what the 1st quarter numbers offer. :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 miju


    is_that_so wrote:
    Yes this is true and based on the normal effect of such increases it should help cool the market by making money more expensive, though not necessarily make it crash. Jim Power

    sorry cant resist , is this the same Jim Power who thinks interest rates are "done and dusted" when the rest of the financial world reckons otherwise

    is_that_so wrote:
    IMO it is impossible therefore to adduce that the unemployment rate will rise. More workers could lose their jobs but how can we determine what group it will affect most and more importantly how that will translate itself across the various economic sectors ?

    we cant really i suppose , but lets look at 2 scenarios:

    1: immgrants lose jobs = result: they go home to the home country leading to oversupply in rental accomodation meaning lower yields , meaning properties put up for sale , putting downward pressure on rent etc etc ..... doesnt look good for property in that scenario

    2: the irish lose jobs = less money going about economy , harder to get loans or qaulify for even a "modest 300k" mortgage , property market stagnates with prices eventually coming down to meet the lower mortgage amounts being approvied ..... doesnt look good in that one either does it?
    is_that_so wrote:
    Bad debts start to mount as businesses fold
    There does not seem to be much evidence of this particularly as last year was , although it does acknowledge that some newer companies in construction have suffered.

    i'm with you on this one , businesses fold ALL the time and it has no major effect on the economy as a whole , however a multinational pulling out of a rural area in particular could be bad real bad (not saying any will or they wont i'm just throwing that up there)

    is_that_so wrote:
    Peoples appetite for extending themselves to get on the ladder evaporates as fears over job security take precedence
    When people don't buy they still have to live somewhere. This should then create more demand for rental properties thus negating the previous scenario.

    except with construction work dried up and the immigrants off to help build for the london olympics you suddenly have a whole new glut of empty rental properties , not to mention the aforementioned 120,000 odd empty properites sitting idle being used for capital appreciation alone
    is_that_so wrote:
    In conclusion I don't take the view that there will an economic meltdown as the original article suggests. I find it hard to believe that data as presented. .................. 12-13% correction is not impossible and that would serve The latest US Jobs data has just reinforced this. Yet again they got it spectacularly wrong -50% out.

    :)

    i'm really just yanking your chain here man but what if your 12-13% is 50% out :D:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    Cantab. wrote:
    Being an investor, I take it that you have done all the sums? What is your risk exposure? And is this risk worth the potential gain? I assume you are assesing the market based on facts, available data and trends, and not just reactive sentiment? Your mantra about "how wrong they were then" and "if you keep saying the sky will fall for the next billion years some day it may happen" could cost you dearly.

    Yes. Low. Yes. Yes. I doubt it.
    miju wrote:
    ALL evidence points to depreciation at best , MAJORITY of property bulls are all in AGREEMENT THAT PRICES HAVE PEAKED ... yet in your infinite wisdom you plan to buy an investment property

    But for the record, if I come back in 6 months or a year (ideally will flip it quickly, maybe subsale even before the stamp duty falls due) and and say I have made a profit which exceeds all the negative predictions here, you will endorse my 'infinite wisdom'?

    You're on...will revert with the figures when the engineer tells me how much I need to sink into the place.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 111 ✭✭ mentalson


    is_that_so wrote:
    My issue is not with your use of data all of which speaks for itself aside from one point. 90,000 units from what I can see just refers to units. What proportion was affordable/social housing? If the government is to believed about
    Part V of the Planning Act 2000 Housing Targets
    we can expect to see nearly 50,000 homes under the scheme over the coming years. How can or would you account for this?


    If the government is to believed!!! Part V is now fully operational. The latest figures show that of the 90,000 housing units completed last year approx 1,300 were acquired under Part V. (980 affordable, 390 social) Council housing officials have the the power to take cash from developers instead of the 20% and many have been doing so. a lot of housing officials now have new mercs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,831 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    miju wrote:
    sorry cant resist , is this the same Jim Power who thinks interest rates are "done and dusted" when the rest of the financial world reckons otherwise

    No. That was Austin Hughes
    Last night IIB economist Austin Hughes told the Irish Independent: "The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn't have to rise rates any further." He said the current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient.

    "We've been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted," he said.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,466 ✭✭✭✭ jmayo


    Have to say Miju has highlighted two scenarios that are very likely and that will lead to housing buble bursting.

    All the forecasts regarding population are based on the fact that there is continued economic growth and thus they are foreigners (non-Irish passport holders lets say) around to buy future property or more likely rent existing and future property.
    At the moment all our economic growth seems to be tied up with housing.
    We do not export houses, we consume them with money provided as cheap credit. We are postponing the payment of these houses,we will be paying for them upto retirement, based on the premise we will have continued growth.

    If jobs are not here then foreigners leave and even worse native Irish start to leave like bad old days.
    Over supply usually means cheaper unless we live in some alternate universe and that does not apply to us.

    The big concern is the multinationals, who are here purely for their own benefit, not ours.
    When it becomes no longer cost effective they go and setup in cheaper locations.
    This is already happening. Companies close their Irish operations and either increase production in their far eastern plants, setup new ones there or move to Eastern Europe.
    People will really notice this when the likes of Dell pulls out of Limerick.
    Mid West loses 4 thousand direct/indirect jobs, check how that will effect house prices in Mid West.
    Try an find another employer that will fill that gap, particularly when our costs are now so high. The old chestnut about our young educated workforce doesn't wash anymore.

    On a lighter note:
    Has anybody ever thought this is all academic since buying property near a lowlying coastline, say Sandymount, Cork, Holland, Florida will be underwater in 20 years or so due to global warming, melting icecaps, continues el ninos etc etc.

    Now there's a thought ... buy near Roundwood or Johnny Foxs and watch it appreciate long term...


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭ hi5


    Here are some of Jim Powers predictions from July 2005,I'm sure we could do the same with Austin Hughes and all.
    Note his predictions on interest rates.



    http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/2005/07/07/story455344776.asp


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,444 Cantab.


    Conor74 wrote:
    Yes. Low. Yes. Yes. I doubt it.

    You are a very nonchalant investor. I wish you luck.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,831 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    is_that_so wrote:
    My issue is not with your use of data all of which speaks for itself aside from one point. 90,000 units from what I can see just refers to units. What proportion was affordable/social housing? If the government is to believed about
    Part V of the Planning Act 2000 Housing Targets
    we can expect to see nearly 50,000 homes under the scheme over the coming years. How can or would you account for this?
    Why haven't the government, councils and developers deliverd these to date? After 5 years in power the social housing program has been reduced to a lottery for those people judged eligible. Even if you win its difficult to get loan approval from the bank. The social housing scheme to date has failed to meet the goals set out for it represents a major public policy failure of the present government. The get out clause inserted for the developers goes substantially towards the running of the county councils. The amount spent on rent supplement has increased dramatically since 2000, and has effectively puts a floor on the rental market.
    If I may speculate in event of a crash its possible the government may tap into the excess inventory under the guise of social housing program, thereby bailing out the developers.
    is_that_so wrote:
    I do however question the conclusions you have come to and whether you have taken everything into account. IMO they are not ineluctable truths.
    Thank you for taking the time to reply. This is correct I cannot be certain I have taken into account all factors affecting house price inflation. The ineluctable truths I have listed are all well established behaviours when a credit bubble deflates and are unavoidable as the invalid apocryphal beliefs supporting the inflated prices for houses (stocks or commodities) are discarded so prices correct and return to the mean.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Interest rates are increasing

    Yes this is true and based on the normal effect of such increases it should help cool the market by making money more expensive, though not necessarily make it crash. Jim Power
    Interest rates are still quite low by historical standards in Ireland, however we pushed the affordability boat to the limits when ECB interest rates were lowest and even if ECB interest rates hit 4% people should in theory be able to cope, however we have the highest cost of living rises presently in the EU and wage inflation is not keeping pace. There are already over 86,000 people with judgements against them in this country, and even the banks recognise another 40,000 of their customers at least who are in a marginal position, As Austin Hughes said earlier this year "Yes, we are the most indebted in the euro-zone, but we were under-borrowed for a long time. Remember that the home-buying population (between 25 and 34) has been growing at under 6pc a year."
    This will also affect mortgage equity withdrawal, so existing house owners will have less money to borrow for property in Borneo or Bulgaria, cars or home improvement, so ending the ability to subsidise their lifestyle. There is a higher chance these people will also find themsleves with negative equity should they try to sell in a declining market.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Banks tighten their criteria for lending

    My impression was that this has started and that credit card debt is to be included in loan evaluations. I don't believe that banks here in general will go beyond that 100% threshold and I would hope that people are not stupid enough to do so.
    I agree they are tightening. EBS recently announced they would only consider certain public sector professions for 100% mortgages and Sean Fitzpatrick, chairman Anglo Irish Bank advised "Banks need to be mature, and not overreact to exacerbate the problem - 5 per cent of non-performing loans is no big deal". 78% of the big three banks profits stems from property. Anecdotal evidence from December suggests sales are already falling through since first time buyers are not being extended the same terms as they were in Spring 2006. 20% of mortages to June last year were 100% loans, also subprime lenders have been growing here using securitisation to fund loans at a premium to riskier clients. Even the main banks are using securitisation to raise funds. The Irish Independent recently warned that some IO mortage holders have no way to pay back the capital.
    Against that background the banks risk premium increases and it becomes more expensive to raise capital, so the costs are passed on to the mortgagee. The Fitch report should serve as a red flag in that regard.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Unemployment Rises

    This is questionable and could be affected by any number of other factors such as higher energy costs,wage inflation or lower cost economies.

    Notwithstanding that, the proportion of non-nationals per sector is currently not measured and therefore unknown.
    Dan O'Brien Irish Times 06/01/07 Link.

    It is believed that there are many EU nationals in the construction industry. Given that many EU migrants are here for economic reasons how increased unemployment might be affect them or what they might do is also unknown. If only Irish nationals were affected then the comment might hold.
    A report for the AIB released in February 2006 throws some light on this, the majority of non-national (UK, Continental Europe, Asia) immigrants do not work in construction. According to a recent Irish Independent article "Of a total workforce of just over two million people, one in eight - or 277,800 people - were employed in the industry, of which 35,300 were non-nationals." We should get more information during the year from the CSO census results. Since 2000, the principal areas of employment for native Irish people have been in construction and the public sector, George Lee referred to this in his recent documentary Boom - The Time of Our Lives. I recommend watching this program.
    is_that_so wrote:
    IMO it is impossible therefore to adduce that the unemployment rate will rise. More workers could lose their jobs but how can we determine what group it will affect most and more importantly how that will translate itself across the various economic sectors ?
    There are broadly two economies here in Ireland, the domestic economy that mostly revolves around debt financed construction and the public sector for employment and the multinational sector that revolves around financial services (IFSC), and technology sector (Microsoft, Dell, Intel, HP, Xerox) both with attendent spinoffs in services and retail.

    The end of the housing boom, will see a downturn in construction employment and is already on the cards as the number of planning permissions granted has decreased 15% in Q3 2006. It is hoped that infrastructure projects will make up the shortfall in employment, but these projects are not as labour intensive as residential building. The multinational sector is largely governed by events elsewhere, however cost pressures, skills shortages and infrastructure deficits in this country are impacting our global competetive position. Future wage inflation cannot be counted on as the trend is towards a global levelling of wages. Dell are already preparing to move some production to Poland, to benefit from government grants, lower labour costs and a central location for distribution in Europe. They will be scaling back production in their Limerick plant. Dell is 4% of expenditure in the Irish economy.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Bad debts start to mount as businesses fold

    There does not seem to be much evidence of this particularly as last year was the best year for company liquidations in 20 years
    , although it does acknowledge that some newer companies in construction have suffered.
    Not surprising as 2006 was the top of the housing market, and overall the global economy is doing well and there is a tidal wave of borrowed money flooding the Irish economy and as Sean Lemass once said "A rising tide lifts all boats", but as Warren Buffet would say "We think that as the tide goes out you're going to find out who's not wearing clothes. That's when we are going find out which companies have been per forming well and which ones haven't."
    is_that_so wrote:
    Investors who are undercapitalised rush to sell else they go bankrupt

    This assumes first and foremost that the crash will occur and the two elements above will happen as you state.

    What types of investors do you mean? If I as a private investor buy a new house and I am VAT registered I can claim that VAT back. This could be used for kit out and possibly reducing some of my 100% exposure. This does not really strike me as a recipe for bankruptcy.
    Investors who are undercapitalised won't have the funds to continue servicing a property and as capital appreciation has halted, they will be incentivised to sell in order to preserve what's left of their capital and avail of other investment options. Only those with sufficient capital will invest in property and then only if they are getting an adequate rental yield. I'm guessing that most 'property investors' in recent years have a high gearing ratio making them very vulnerable to a market downturn, especially if the income from renting the property does not cover maintenence and mortgage and insurance costs.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Peoples appetite for extending themselves to get on the ladder evaporates as fears over job security take precedence

    When people don't buy they still have to live somewhere. This should then create more demand for rental properties thus negating the previous scenario.
    True to an extent. Rents are increasing already and finding rental accomodation is becoming more competetive, this is expected as the investors in the market for capital appreciation all try to exit at the same time. Some renters who have been priced out of the market will find it cheaper to buy as the supply increase means the sellers have to drop their prices if they must sell.
    Tenants are generally price sensitive and will find ways to reduce costs by moving back with parents or sharing with someone else, mortgage payers will be more willing to accept lodgers to defray the increased costs of servicing a mortgage. Also people will hold off buying in the expectation of further price falls in another few months, they will also face less competition as the 'specuvestor' exits the market.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Government tax revenue nose dives, its costs increase, leading to huge deficits

    Again the costs here assume we know what way the unemployment will affect the various sectors.
    If you look through the economics of the last 15-20 years you will find frugality - Ruari Quinn
    common sense - Mac the Knife and The Tallaght Strategy
    crystal ball genius Charlie McCreevy and the SSIA
    and financial nous 12.5% corporation tax.

    Deficits can usually be resolved by swingeing cuts, tax increases and borrowing. The first two are certainly within the instant control of government.
    The government only pursues sensible economic policies when its back is against the wall, even France and Germany are coming round to the low corporate tax idea, as have the eastern European states. McCreevy only issued the SSIA because the EU was on his back over an inflationary budget. The SSIA was a scam (political materstroke nonetheless), all they did was give our own money back to us, any taxpayer that did not take out an SSIA, effectively subsidised my and others savings. (I thank you)
    Wages in the public sector are now on average higher than the private sector And yet members of that sector are priced out of most of the main cities. When revenue falls they will have to cut in order to stay within ECB stability pact guidelines, they will not be able to inflate their way out of the problem like previous governments have before the Euro. The housing boom is already having a destabilising effect on the Government's revenue, albeit a positive one in 2006.
    is_that_so wrote:
    Finally how do you factor in the SSIA? Given that it is valued at €15 billion where does that fit into your analysis?
    The SSIA in inflationary if its released into the economy at once, hard to say whats its effects are going to be on the housing market, but I think its effects are overestimated that most of the money has already been spent or will continue to be saved.
    is_that_so wrote:
    In conclusion I don't take the view that there will an economic meltdown as the original article suggests. I find it hard to believe that data as presented.

    The original article used Arizona as an example. Arizona like Florida is a recreational state and it would be open to wild speculation. The bubble in the US was localised. Massachussets however is a state that is more similar to Ireland in economy and it might be more representative of what could happen. 12-13% correction is not impossible and that would serve as a warning.

    Equally his use of The Netherlands is a poor example as it was already in an economic recession after 9/11 so would not have been a healthy position in 2003.

    Economists have never really been here before. They are guessing, digging up models to provide answers to something that keeps going on and on and
    that "can't possibly continue".

    Ultimately I am with George Lee on this . I neither trust nor believe economists at face value and I am dubious about reports at the best of times. The latest US Jobs data has just reinforced this. Yet again they got it spectacularly wrong -50% out.

    As regards those posters looking to jump into the market , it might be best to see what the 1st quarter numbers offer. :)
    You might read Alan Ahearne's article in todays Sunday Independent, he gives a one handed view of the after effects of the credit boom. He produced a study of these episodes when he worked at the US Federal reserve and can name no fewer than 44 episodes of house price booms that ended in busts in industrial countries since 1970.
    The real problem in the United States which will hit their economy this year is the emerging ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) scandal, as these mortgages reset to higher rates, the lenders will foreclose. Sub prime lenders in the US are also starting to go bust, with more expected to follow. I expect the US Federal Reserve to try and cut interest rates this year as this crisis develops. Contrary to being a localised phenonomen this is widespread as millions of American's used mortgage equity withdrawal to subsidise their standard of living. They have a negative personal savings i.e. they are living beyond their means. Even prices in Manhatten are starting to come down.No doubt some canny Irish investors at todays property expo in the RDS will be buying up the excess inventory on offer. :rolleyes:

    I agree with you never trust economists, make up your own mind based on the data available to you.

    All the best,
    Pa ElGrande.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭ hi5


    Excellent posts Pa Elgrande,very well researched,100%.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 111 ✭✭ mentalson


    . The amount spent on rent supplement has increased dramatically since 2000, and has effectively puts a floor on the rental market.
    If I may speculate in event of a crash its possible the government may tap into the excess inventory under the guise of social housing program, thereby bailing out the developers.

    and the govt is moving to further support rental income for speculators through the Rental Accomadation Scheme.
    and some Councils that have refused to enforce Part V have now begun to buy property on the open market e.g a developer in Cork who had difficulty shifting appartments was paid €24,000,000 for 96 of them by the Council.

    Another excellent post Pa ElGrande


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    Cantab. wrote:
    You are a very nonchalant investor. I wish you luck.

    Thank you. The property I'm looking at is near the sea in a very busy tourist resort where the vast number of buyers are just looking for the dream holiday home, willing to pay good money for the address, and not that interested in letting. Hence issues like the numbers of migrant workers not an issue. Might use it for short term summer letting in the meantime.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 miju


    Conor74 wrote:
    But for the record, if I come back in 6 months or a year (ideally will flip it quickly, maybe subsale even before the stamp duty falls due) and and say I have made a profit which exceeds all the negative predictions here, you will endorse my 'infinite wisdom'?

    of course i will as i've no bother admitting when i'm wrong and i wish you the best of luck with it.

    thats providing you can flip it of course to someone else and lets face it a holiday home wouldnt exactly be a flippers first choice of property type , might serve you well to read about all the US property flippers currently facing bankruptcy and paying massive amounts out on mortgages after the market turned and they couldnt flip

    granted it's high risk and high returns but whats the point of flipping a property if the price is going to be same by the time the buildings are finished?


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    miju wrote:
    thats providing you can flip it of course to someone else and lets face it a holiday home wouldnt exactly be a flippers first choice of property type

    The only houses that sell in the area are used as holiday homes. At the moment, evey professional in Cork and Limerick can't get enough of the timber frame 3 bed 1 mile from town estate houses for 350k in the neighbourhood. Looking at a 2 bed old detached cottage in the same area for about 240k on half an acre, Vendor lives abroad and has no auctioneer - sites alone would be worth 140/150k. The only thing I have to factor in is whether I just put on the market and sell on, or hold on and see what planning would give in terms of extra bedrooms. Can't see how it can lose, dire predictions or not, because it will rent for more 400eu a week in the summer anyway - though don't want the hassle of having to clean it every weekend...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,807 chump


    Conor74 wrote:
    The only houses that sell in the area are used as holiday homes. At the moment, evey professional in Cork and Limerick can't get enough of the timber frame 3 bed 1 mile from town estate houses for 350k in the neighbourhood. Looking at a 2 bed old detached cottage in the same area for about 240k on half an acre, Vendor lives abroad and has no auctioneer - sites alone would be worth 140/150k. The only thing I have to factor in is whether I just put on the market and sell on, or hold on and see what planning would give in terms of extra bedrooms. Can't see how it can lose, dire predictions or not, because it will rent for more 400eu a week in the summer anyway - though don't want the hassle of having to clean it every weekend...

    Conor74, the best of luck with your investment but can we reserve this topic for a debate and not an analysis of your personal venture.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,831 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    jmayo wrote:
    On a lighter note:
    Has anybody ever thought this is all academic since buying property near a lowlying coastline, say Sandymount, Cork, Holland, Florida will be underwater in 20 years or so due to global warming, melting icecaps, continues el ninos etc etc.

    Now there's a thought ... buy near Roundwood or Johnny Foxs and watch it appreciate long term...

    The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary discussing effects of peak oil
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

    The real problem is not global warming, within a few years its going to be lack of energy. The Hubbert peak is not far off, if not already happened, We should be driving the development of ideas like new urbanism, though this might be wishful thinking. Even if we find a way to keep pumping money into the housing market, lack of energy will bring the boom to a halt. Its already a problem today, at our present rate of growth we will soon not be able to supply enough energy to keep the boom going within 5 years. Also the Carbon Emissions Trading is going to cost this country dearly, in that we either pay Russia for this (and our Natural Gas) or economic growth has to stop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,149 Raskolnikov


    I used to be extremely bearish on property and convinced that the bubble would burst for certain. Now though, I'm more convinced that things will stay the same for the short to medium term. My reasons for thinking this?
    • There is an Irish obsession with property, renting is simply not an option in the long term for the vast majority of us. With this attitude ingrained into us, people will stretch all they can for the sake of owning their own home.
    • ECB rates are still historically low, by the looks of things, we would need another 2% at least to dampen enthusiasm for home ownership.
    • We still have close to full employment, I think we would need a fairly severe shock to the economy to cause house prices to decrease.


  • Registered Users Posts: 78,229 ✭✭✭✭ Victor


    is_that_so wrote:
    Ultimately I am with George Lee on this . I neither trust nor believe economists at face value and I am dubious about reports at the best of times. The latest US Jobs data has just reinforced this. Yet again they got it spectacularly wrong -50% out.
    It is easy for a percentage adjustment to be wrong. Saying something is expected to change from 200,100,000 to 200,200,000 and getting a result of 200,150,000 isn't all that bad, even though it is 50% out
    Conor74 wrote:
    You're on...will revert with the figures when the engineer tells me how much I need to sink into the place.
    There is a difference between speculation and development.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭ professore


    gearoidmm wrote:
    Just to point out that the methodology that SF use to calculate their index is laughable. They get their own in-house estate agents to estimate how much they think a certain basket of houses would sell for from quarter to quarter - this is the same basket they have been using for years. It's not based on actual sales, just opinion. It should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

    SF have had estimates of price rises over the last few years which are consistently higher than anyone else probably as a result of this dodgy methodology. The only thing that you can take as significant from their report is that they said that prices dropped - they have so consistently talked up the market for so long that any report of a drop in prices suggests that thing might actually be much worse than anyone thinks.

    Didn't know Sinn Fein were in the property racket ....:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,831 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    I used to be extremely bearish on property and convinced that the bubble would burst for certain. Now though, I'm more convinced that things will stay the same for the short to medium term. My reasons for thinking this?
    • There is an Irish obsession with property, renting is simply not an option in the long term for the vast majority of us. With this attitude ingrained into us, people will stretch all they can for the sake of owning their own home.
    • ECB rates are still historically low, by the looks of things, we would need another 2% at least to dampen enthusiasm for home ownership.
    • We still have close to full employment, I think we would need a fairly severe shock to the economy to cause house prices to decrease.
    Unlike Stock market crashes, Housing market crashes do not happen overnight, they are more like death of a thousand cuts spread over a few years. I still expect to see marginal price rises in Dublin this year as people trading up have more equity and developers chase plots of land. Also the volume of properties in this segment may reduce as more people decide to stay put.
    The stamp duty threshold is realistically the upper limit for the first time buyer market and the higher interest rates will reduce the amount they can borrow further.
    Based on the IBF data there are about 39,000 First Time Buyers in the market over a year, 29,000 buying an investment property, and 48,000 people trading up.
    On that basis the demand for new properties is roughly 68,000 units. Note we have completed approximately 90,000 units in 2006 & 80,957 in 2005.
    I see price falls in the FTB market as a combination of reduced lending terms and oversupply lead to reduced prices.

    The big question for 2007 is what are specuvestor's & flippers confidence levels in the property market?


  • Registered Users Posts: 78,229 ✭✭✭✭ Victor


    Based on the IBF data there are about 39,000 First Time Buyers in the market over a year, 29,000 buying an investment property, and 48,000 people trading up.
    On that basis the demand for new properties is roughly 68,000 units. Note we have completed approximately 90,000 units in 2006 & 80,957 in 2005.
    Don't forget pent up demand and other factors like people dieing and freeing up units.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭ Sponge Bob


    Victor wrote:
    Don't forget pent up demand and other factors like people dieing and freeing up units.

    Don't forget FREE units either Victor. This graph of mine causes some outrage in the autumn :D

    Since 2002 we Irish have spent a whole year building empty properties, or even longer . This is a shocking misallocation of resources to my mind.

    In 2002 there were 175k empty properties but the empties rate was around the long term average of about 10% of the national housing stock. No big deal for we Irish. By 2006 it was 275k, OVER 15% . I would say that there is a historically unique oversupply of 100k in there to help th'oul demand side along.

    Anything over 10% is very high in comparative terms although the USA , alone along with us among developed countries, normally manages 10% empty. Other developed countries like the UK have 3% or 4% empty and no region of the UK is over 6% empty with only 1 (Wales ??) over 5% .

    Data from census.

    Sources 2006

    Previous Years 1971-2002 Table 4


  • Registered Users Posts: 78,229 ✭✭✭✭ Victor


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Don't forget FREE units either Victor. This graph of mine causes some outrage in the autumn :D
    Whoa, thats a really bad graph, because you can't see the top point. And the dates should be along the X-axis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    chump wrote:
    Conor74, the best of luck with your investment but can we reserve this topic for a debate and not an analysis of your personal venture.

    So one is only allowed to discuss other people spending money on developments and how they are certain to lose it and the market is doomed, and someone who thinks the market is fine and is willing to stick money on that prediction is censored...:eek:

    I appreciate the sky is falling in stuff is flavour of the month, but it seems a bit strange that one would expect board rules to only promote that version.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭ Sponge Bob


    Its your money Conor , off with ya. :D . Last I remember (in November) you were smelling around the general area of Turkey and Belgrade so this IS a surprise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    Sponge Bob wrote:
    Last I remember (in November) you were smelling around the general area of Turkey and Belgrade so this IS a surprise.

    Bought in Belgrade in an apartment development. Still waiting for returns, apartments near completion. Won't exactly be making my nest egg there, and will simply stick any monies straight back in to some other place when it sells. Never touched Turkey, and glad for that. Though purchase prices here far higher, so too are the potential profits.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 miju


    as well as the potential losses :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,374 ✭✭✭✭ Conor74


    miju wrote:
    as well as the potential losses :)

    True, but speculate to accumulate and all that...


This discussion has been closed.
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