Amber Snow Alert

Villain · 18-02-2005 10:05AM

You always build it up too high, I'd reckon we'll be lucky to see any lying snow in the east, I hope I'm wrong but I doubt anything major will happen apart from a few showers.

magpie · 18-02-2005 10:13AM

Is it just me, or is it a lot warmer today?

pollyantic · 18-02-2005 10:17AM

Gotta say i love these weather threads

You've got the calm coleected tell it like it is guys and the boy who cried wolf fighting it out all the time

Looks like it wont be the end of the world next week then.

18-02-2005 10:22AM

Weathercheck wrote:

Hallo all

Well admittedly there has been a wee downgrading this morning
but for us in the east it's still a stunner. Snow showers will
start falling from very late on Saturday and through Sunday
with a little trough affecting eastern areas during Sunday
afternoon giving a few cm's in places.

Snow from that will be borderline I think, and probably confined to hills as the real cold air wont have dug in by then.
The fun proper wont be untill monday-but its no way certain-nothing ever is.
Significant snow fall is possible but it will be a hit and miss affair, such is the nature of showers.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 10:40AM

Lots to get through this morning...

A few touch and go snow events next week.

Firstly snow showers will hug the east coast through
Sunday giving small accumalations through the day
and through Sunday night. Temperatures will rise
to no more than 3c in the east and no more than 5c
in the west. A hard frost will follow with temperatures
plummeting to -4 or -5c. A period of light snow will
affect eastern areas towards midnight.

Monday hits with the possiblity of a snow event in the east
a little low pressure moves down the west of the country
falling as sleet or rain here but falling as snow on the eastern
limit of the precipitation, whether the precipitation will reach the
far east is not known yet but if it did it would dump upto
10cm's of snow. A bitter day maxima of no more than 1 or 2c
where the snow is falling and 3 or 4c at max elsewhere.

Tuesday spells more trouble for the east with temperatures already
-2 or -3c a little low pressure will form over the centre of the country
and wrap the cold air into the east with periods of prolonged snow.
This feature could leave another 10cm's of snow in the east.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 10:42AM

Earthman Sunday will be cold enough for snow infact
it's looking colder than Monday and Tuesday

Gonzo · 18-02-2005 10:50AM

since yesterday morning this cold spell is degrading slightly all the time, i think we will still get it but it may only be for 2 days where snow is possible and even then only showers where some places will escape and some areas will get a few inchs and this all been in the eastern third of the country. The cold spell proper is meant to last for a full week in southern and south east england with milder conditons edging into ireland and scotland which could be enough to turn the snow showers back into rain, even 1C rise could make this difference. This time yesterday i was expecting widespread disruption in the east but this seems to be looking more unlikely as the charts continue to change for the slightly milder and things are becoming more accurate. once again tho i dont fully believe these charts, they have been wrong so many times this winter even 24 hours in advance.

18-02-2005 11:00AM

To cheer Gonzo up...

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1682.html

Look where that -10 850 air is

Weathercheck feel free by the way to talk of the latest runs , they're not bad at all as regards bitter cold and snow...

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 11:01AM

Gonzo i think the charts are misleading you..

On a chart like this
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

Reds and yellow's are not necessarily warm

Here the corresponding temp chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.gif

And everyone seems paranoid about "England" doing well
out of this, they will but Eastern Ireland will get its fair share too.

And any worry about a 2 day cold spell well it's not going
to be a 2 day cold spell

Even being reserved expect at least a 7 day cold spell
with the liklyhood of it lasting around 10 days

We are good to go people who live with 100 miles of the east coast,
GOOD TO GO from late Saturday snow showers will affect
eastern areas, only a few days to go now

Darwin · 18-02-2005 11:02AM

Sunday is looking pretty cold alright, but theyr.net (who are usually pretty accurate) are not showing any precipation at all up to Sunday midnight - which is their latest post.

18-02-2005 11:06AM

Weathercheck wrote:

Here the corresponding temp chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.gif

Mother of Fuck I know its a little out of range for not to be subject to changes but look at the source of that air and it's bullseye target with that wind direction... :eek: Very very very cold!

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 11:06AM

A chart to illustrate possible snow from Saturday night
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis06.18022005/rart_05022000_1806.gif?897e20a1f00a3288fbf1d01306db6121

kleefarr · 18-02-2005 11:09AM

Weathercheck wrote:

We are good to go

Good to go? What? Skiing? :eek: :rolleyes:

full forward · 18-02-2005 11:30AM

UK met office ADVANCE WARNINGS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

These warnings are issued when severe weather is expected to cause widespread disruption to traffic etc. over the next few days.

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

FOR GOD SAKE THINK OF THE CHILDREN!

18-02-2005 12:29PM

That gives a sort of an idea and a reserved idea at that for what is going to happen in the UK.

It has no relevance to us though.
Take wales for instance, it shows a low chance of disruption because with the NE wind most of its precipitation would have to come originally from the North sea and it would be weakish by then if there at all.

Ireland is mostly ignored and obviously thats because its not covered by their warnings.
Thus any factor for here is not considered.
And certainly the risk of snow fall thanks to the Irish sea is highish enough.

It's similar to "lake effect" snow on the U.S canada border.

By the way I notice met Éireanns latest update indicates snow showers especially near the East coast-that sounds more like it.

Mother nature is tweaking this evrey hour on the hour and she aint paying any attention to computer models-so what we get and whats predicted aint necessarally going to be the same.
If you are in the East though, and like snow , you will be unlucky if you dont see enough to crunch under your feet in the coming week as it is very likely there

The chances deminish as you head further west.

Danno · 18-02-2005 12:58PM

Laois lies between 45 and 75 miles of the east coast, are we covered?

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 01:08PM

Earthman wrote:

It's similar to "lake effect" snow on the U.S canada border.

Heard this mentioned a few times, I assume its heavy snow? Do you think we are talking blizzard type conditions or is it too soon to know that?

I like the snow crunching under the feet bit, hope it happens.

Really need to do some work, this week has been a write off!

18-02-2005 01:52PM

Felixdhc wrote:

Heard this mentioned a few times, I assume its heavy snow? Do you think we are talking blizzard type conditions or is it too soon to know that?

I like the snow crunching under the feet bit, hope it happens.

Really need to do some work, this week has been a write off!

Lake effect snow is a term used to describe showers that build up over the great lakes on the U.S canada Border when intensely cold air moves down over them.
The same will happen over the Irish sea as this siberian air travels over, it creates instability and showers which,I'm fairly confident at this stage should be snow certainly by mon-tues anyway.
And yes if they are as intense as the showers that brought the october 2003 24 hr long thunderstorm activity to Dublin and the East coast you could be looking at a "white out" during them.

Danno wrote:

Laois lies between 45 and 75 miles of the east coast, are we covered?

Intensity should decrease the further inland they go but again it depends on a lot of factors.
In scenarios like this I've seen showers go well inland ie giving cover to much of Leinster but with the heaviest falls if cold enough right on the coast and definitely on higher ground.

Danno · 18-02-2005 01:58PM

The trouble for me is the Wicklows, they would take alot of the ummph out of them, if they get further, then the Castlecomer pleatau will take another bit out of them.

Hmmm, I dunno, if there is a NE component, then they would follow the N7/N8 to me!

billy the squid · 18-02-2005 02:21PM

Hmmm, I dunno, if there is a NE component, then they would follow the N7/N8 to me!

and by the looks of things it would seem that it will be moving faster than the traffic on the N7

I think that it will be a cold but wet week for us here in Limerick. If we do get clear spells there is going to be like glass on the roads.

18-02-2005 02:39PM

Drat this lack of weathercheck is making me work... (on looking at the latest models instead of doing the work I'm supposed to be doing here!)

Anyways the latest GFS stuff continues with an even colder theme right through next week and boy the source of the air is truly icy!

Danno · 18-02-2005 02:51PM

He He, he is VERY quiet today, considering that it is only 36hrs to go!!!

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 02:57PM

Probably out stocking up on supplies

TonyB · 18-02-2005 03:04PM

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

Danno · 18-02-2005 03:04PM

I can imagine it!

Tesco Value Range:

* De Icer
* Tinned Beans
* Firelighters
* Value Snow Spade

18-02-2005 03:12PM

TonyB wrote:

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

In this case yes we are looking at a rare event.
If you are in the East of the country ,its fairly certain at some point from sunday night onwards , you will feel snow crunching under your feet.

As regards the forum, we discuss all sorts of mad weather here but are usually quiet when its uneventfull.

Weathercheck loves his snow so, in wintertime if theres a whiff of it you will find him talking about it.
Soem threads here so far have been on snow and theres been some or they've been on the prospect of snow that didnt really happen.

This *is* going to happen though, for how long is unsure, possibly most of next week.

Danno · 18-02-2005 03:14PM

TonyB wrote:

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

According to Weathercheck it is a once in a decade event,

However I am of the opinion that it will be cold, crisp and largly dry for most of Ireland, just a few flurrys here and there.

Although, if the wind gets up, it could be like the Christmas 1995, Early Jan 1996 event where we had true Ice Days, (24-hour period with 0c or below)

Danno · 18-02-2005 03:15PM

Any fax charts to look at today then?

jd · 18-02-2005 03:30PM

Danno wrote:

He He, he is VERY quiet today, considering that it is only 36hrs to go!!!

His zx spectrum is probably running slow while it pumps out his latest model, and he's busy tweaking it..

18-02-2005 03:53PM

LoL jd...

I think he's too young to know what a zx spectrum was tho...

Split the off topic stuff and put it into the snowstalgia thread.

Amber Snow Alert

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