Holly Cairns - 'Sinn Fein policies aren't left wing'

It is funny I saw part of her interview on the late late. She appeared to be “open” in one respect. But “calculating” in another sense. For instance she was asked why she didn’t go into government if she really wanted to make a difference? She basically bluffed the answer people want “real change” etc.

Now with the OP’s article above. It occurred to me that Cairns wants to position the Soc Dems as the defacto leaders of “the left”. Maybe someday merging with Labour but still “Soc Dems”.

Cairns seems to want to create a vibe of something new, fresh, real, genuine and progressive. It was notable she used a very American term in the interview “people of colour”. It is rare you hear white Irish people use that term. Cairns is clearly aiming for the progressive middle class left.
Within that framework SF seems “more of the same” gradually going centrist. But still weighed down by the rhetoric of their republican past to a large extent. SF will always be more successful in locales where people would like to move from - than to.

Compared to the Soc Dems SF do not appear to be the fresh, hopeful, or vibrant party. I think Cairns is being very clever she is playing the long game.

Agreed.

The challenge will be convincing the public that the Soc Dems can build more new homes than FFG and finding a stance on immigration that allows enough people to vote Soc Dem.

The left wing parties are and will remain liberal on immigration.

They can do that and still agree that deportations are necessary.

In fairness to SF they seem to have copped on to this, it took them long enough but better late than never I suppose.

Cairns and Bacik never talk about the need for deportations.

The way I read it anyway, the Soc Dems are pragmatic left, and to be realistic, there isn’t much of an audience for the hard left in Ireland - it's a bit niche. Unlike most of Europe, we never even really developed a large centre-left tranche of politics. That’s basically the space the Social Democrats are trying to establish and fill, from what I can see. However, so is Labour (and they have been since the foundation of the state) and aside having less political baggage, I’m not sure what distinguishes the Soc Dems and Labour. They seem very similar on most issues.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are both broadly centre/centre-right these days, although you could definitely say that historically they were straightforwardly conservative nationalist parties. They’ve shifted towards the centre over time, but the centre itself has drifted somewhat to the left, as the population became much more progressive on social issues and I think there's a broad expectation here of public expenditure on welfare, health and so on. They somewhat fit into something closer to a softer Irish version of something like the Gaullists than they are like the British Conservatives, who have a very definite philosophy about cutting public spending etc.

Sinn Féin are also chasing that same political middle ground - effectively everyone has to. They brand themselves as more left-leaning, but in practice they’re often fairly centrist and pragmatically will pick their arguments on different topics. I think it's reasonable to say they're ideologically a bit of a mixed bag, even if they've some left in the middle of it, but fundamentally they're defined by the constitutional question of irish unity more so than anything else. Even on republican values, I've found SF can be more likely to propose compromises to achieve unity than FF or FG ever would - they've become a party moulded very much by the experience of the NI peace process in the 90s and 00s in how they exist now. That's no bad thing - it's big positive, but I just think it's a mistake to assume they're a dogmatically ideological - no Irish party really is.

The reality of Irish politics is that it just doesn’t fit neatly into a left–right framework. That's not necessarily a negative as it brings huge stability and nuance, but it does mean that it tends to be a bit hard to define anyone ideologically. That’s partly because Ireland never had a large, organised labour movement like Britain or much of continental Europe, so the old capital-versus-labour divide never really took root here - there wasn't the industrial base for that to happen and the foundation of the state was about strands of nationalism. It’s also very much a product of the PR-STV voting system, which rewards consensus building and always nudges parties and even independents toward centrist positions if they want any hope of getting near power they need to be able to play well with others. Any party that's lacking pragmatism or that can't see past a narrow ideology tends to end up spun out to the fringes of politics - the Greens to a degree get whacked with that every time they've been in coalition - they're too ideological for the electorate, and they're too pragmatic for their core vote, so they get slammed in both directions. Irish politics is an unusual system and much, much more nuanced and less polarised than say the Westminster model, or even many of the PR systems with party lists. It's an outlier in a lot of ways - so I don't really know exactly where to place the Soc Dems or if it even matters where to place them. What will make or break them in the long run is whether or not they can play ball in the Dáil. It'll be about growing presence, talking about topics, nudging, being on committees and building profile.

I think where Holly Carins is very strong is basically that that she's a very clear communicator and tends to have a way higher profile than a lot of party leaders because she can engage with topics very intelligently. That's something that will stand to her in politics. You can already see that. Whether that's enough to grow the party remains to be seen as they need a lot more strong candidates to stand and to define what they're about.

“Cairns seems to want to create a vibe of something new, fresh, real, genuine and progressive.”

While I’m not a fan- I know people who are- and I’d agree, SD’s will be growing in popularity over the next few years- I would bet that they will steal the centre left ground from SF - and that’s why I don’t see a big strong “left alliance”- whilst Labour are going nowhere fast, this party is - they’ll greatly increase their seats in next election and will be potential bedfellows with a FFG govt coalition - of course they’ll crash and burn the following election because these parties always do- but it will be fun seen SF prevented from taking office while a lesser left party does the deal😀

Mairead Farrell and Cian O Callaghan were like 2 people on an awkward first date on The Tonight Show last night.

Bad luck for them that Sheehan was the host because he was never going to let them have an easy time of it.

Absolutely. A person should be able to identify themselves clearly, it can be photos of documents on Google Drive, but it needs to exist. Without that, they should not be free to roam about until they are identified.

the socialism created the 8 hour day movement, to limit working days to 8 hours, that got us a 40 hour week, sick pay etc etc? All that terribly nasty stuff that 'does not work'?

I avoid voting in Ulster elections because of Sinn Fein's liberal agenda. However I feel like there is no good option. The thing is that Sinn Fein are the best option to have power in Catholic areas of Ulster. The alternative is to let unionists have power.

What happened today will reinforce the perception among some on the Left that SF are not leftwing.

I think the Social Democrats will grow, but I think they are riding a rising tide of socialism.

In the last general election, FFG got a combined first preference vote of just 43%. The most recent poll had FFG polling at 37%, the lowest support the combined parties ever enjoyed in the history of polling. This isn't a recency bias either. There's a long-term trend for about the last 18 years now of FFG gradually losing support.

If there was an election tomorrow, I'd say it's a 50:50 shot whether FFG would beat SF/SD/LAB/PBP/GP/etc's.

I'll be honest, I just don't agree at all.

You're clinging onto this ideal that everyone at heart is centrist, and they will vote for some variation on the status quo (eg, some form of a FFG government).

I think this has come to an end now. Politics in Ireland has swung decisively left. It started with the implosion of the Progressive Democrats. It was re-enforced when Renua bombed. Centre-right politics is a complete wasteland for any incumbents. It barely exists now, you've 4 Independent Ireland TD's and a few Independents. That's it.

FFG have swung centre-left in an attempt to capture that trend. It's failed because they're not left enough to capture the anger of the populace, but it's also diverged too far left that they've alienated anyone centre-right. They're trying to appeal to everyone, buy failing everyone abysmally. As much as it pains me to say, I think the left will win the next election and have enough seats to form a government.

I don’t disagree in terms of your odds for a left govt tomorrow morning - I guess some of this is “pub talk” given the election is so far away. Clearly FFG have to change to adapt whereas the “left” just need to keep doing what they’re doing in some respects.

I’m probably more conservative politically but in no way shape or form far right- I’m probably a little left of centre on some issues and a little right of centre on others. Housing is the no 1 issue for the young electorate as far as I can see but sustainable jobs and economy growth has to be no 2 whether they like it or not - otherwise they won’t be able to pay their massive mortgages.

I’m truly fearful in terms of what the economy will look like in 4 years time and how we’ll pay for our public services no less national debt. The world is changing at a massive rate - more than ever, new skills need to be learned to stay relevant - that includes the civil service - I don’t see that happening considering there are some departments still using paper based systems FFS.

Cost of goods and services just keep going up- I’m not at all “poor” but I can’t fathom how people on low incomes are surviving - whilst we still have low unemployment there will be less jobs available looking for better skills- and these jobs won’t be secure either.

If “the left” win the next election, I hope it’s because they have a clear vision on how to tackle all of the challenges as opposed to simple “fed up” electorate burring their heads in the sand and wanting “change” for change sake

But in General elections, people dont vote only on cultural issues in the way they tend to in presidential elections. They also vote on the emotive issue of taxation, and on that theres less trust in the Left in my opinion. It was the FG-Labour government that introduced the USC, which was not progressive. They also introduced water charges. The water charges are suspended. They also said "Frankfurts Way or Labour's Way", which turned out to just be two different names for the same thing when in government.