Beef price tracker 2

Reading what Board Bia is saying there is 80-100k of this years kill gone missing. From the article in the Indo

"Bord Bia now expects the total kill to fall by 180,000-200,000 head, nearly double its original estimate."

As well

When forecasting the Irish cattle kill, Bord Bia takes into consideration “the number of cattle currently on the ground as per the AIMs database, the impact of the live export trade and past farmer behaviour in terms of when cattle will be presented for slaughter”.

Basically there is the bones of100k cattle not slaughtered this year that they woukd have expected to be slaughtered. They expect there to be 50k more prime cattle in the pipeline next year

From the middle of January to the middle of April this year slaughter numbers varied from slaughter numbers varied from 35-39k.

At some stage they will start appearing back.in the system.in serious numbers.

Bass i really don't think that's going to happen. There hasn't been a proper appraisal of what was exported especially over the last two years in prime cattle alone.

I said it before in 1981 almost 320k cattle were exported almost simulor to last year it's took to 1989 for beef prices to collapse. This won't be a quick turnaround. The factories took their eye off the ball and they know it plus beef was more plentiful in the UK than it was in the 80s.

Bord Bia according to their recent statement stated said it was the AIM they were doing the calculation off. It's a live system every animal slaughtered, died on a farm, going accross the border to be slaughtered in NI plants or being put on a ferry or ship to be exported is recorded. When I get my herd test done the vet arrives with a list if there is an error, it's usually down to animals that I slaughtered after they did the list, an animal that went to a knackery and that did not do it's AIM update or an incorrect farm to farm transfer. The animals do not dissappear. The government have a better idea where everyone bovine livestock in the country is compared to ehere every citizen is. It took Tusla 4-5 years to assertain that two children were missing, the department will send you a please explain letter if an animal.is missing off your herd test. Lad can game the system by tagging a calf with a dead animals tag or you can declare it missing/stolen but the animal.is recored to you if it was registered first day. As well from what I am hearing exports of plainer calves have virtually ceased since July as these calves are too expensive.

Bord Bia says from the AIM there is 50k more projected and that 70k cows were not slaughtered this year that were expected to be. Are these suckler or dairy cows. If suckler are they retained for breeding along with extra heifers. If dairy cows are they being fed further later than hung as canners or parlour cows.

What caught the processors this year was entering into incorrectly structured contracts this time last year. This lost them control of the market, for an entity that for decades seldom let's this happen what was more surprising was they failed to correct the issue as the year progressed.

However 2024 born cattle will now enter the market from now on. For the last six months we remained aligned or exceeded tge UK base price. That is unusual as the UK is the highest price beef market. We export about 60-70% to the UK at present but the rest goes to lower priced markets therefore we tend to normally be behind it.

TThe Killmis above 30k now, when we had control it was below it and substantially below at times.

Let lads tell me there projected kill rage for the next few months. Personally I think in general we have seen the virtual end of the sub 30k kill. I think kill numbers will climb into the early 30's at least. What effect that will have on the price of beef I do not know