Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

It's not aimed specifically at you exclusively, and while you may not have, there have been plenty of posts over the past few days essentially implying Crowley is a better attacker than Prendergast.

My point is - it's not as important, because while Crowley might be a better carrier than Prendergast, I think Prendergast steers an attack better. On balance - the overall attack is more potent IMO with Prendergast at 10 than with Crowley, and I'd wager that is a view that is shared by the Irish coaching ticket too.

Yet by your above logic, we should be crediting Crowley because Ireland had a better try-scoring rate in his time on the pitch than Prendergast.

This is particularly trite - this was in response to a specific comment that Crowley "turned the game on its head" against England, when there was actually nothing to support that.

The stats I'm providing are over the course of an entire season. It's a much deeper sample set for comparison purposes.

^

I wouldn't be surprised if Hugh Cooney started getting more calls ups to training camps at least. He's already been in one camp and has impressed with Leinster recently as well.

This kind of perfectly encapsulates though the Prendergast-Crowley debate - people seem happy to continue to simply push forward their opinions and perceptions, even when the data says otherwise.

Leinster's attack is considerably more potent with Prendergast at the helm than with any of Leinster's other out halves. The notion you could just plug anyone into that attack (in the most pivotal position) and expect the same or similar level of output to me doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

If, for example, you put Prendergast into the Zebre team, do you suddenly expect them to have the same try-scoring rate as Leinster? Of course not.

I would not expect Zebre to have the same try scoring record as Leinster, but I would expect them to have a better try scoring record than they do with Giacomo da Re at 10 (or than I would with Jack Crowley at 10).

A better comparison might be the strike rates of Ireland in the 2024 6 Nations with Crowley vs Ireland in the 2025 6 Nations with Prendergast, with broadly the same team around them.

It doesn't tell a whole lot - we scored 19 tries in 2024, 17 tries in 2025 (11 tries with Prendergast on the field). Idiosyncratic factors in some games - i.e. in 2024 we scored 4 tries at home to Wales, in 2025 we scored 2 tries away (but had Garry Ringrose red carded after 32 mins etc, in 2024 France got a red card after 30 mins (and had had a yellow prior), in 2025 Ireland got 2 yellows v France.

It does not, IMO, tell you as much as analysing their attacks over the course of an entire domestic season (where they substantially play against the same teams).

I'd be very surprised if we don't see Osborne picked more often at 15 for Leinster till Keenan comes back, not least because there are a slight shortage of wingers IMO. Easier to shuffle JOB to the wing and put Osborne at 15 than pick Andrew Osborne to start on the wing in games.

Similar to you - I don't really like Osborne at 15, I'd love to see him get a sustained run at 12.

Would equally like to see Mack Hansen get some gametime for Connacht at 15, but with Sam Gilbert inbound there (and the potential place kicker), it looks like Mack will stay in the 14 shirt for Connacht longer term.

Tommy O'Brien could shift across to the 11 shirt IMO for Ireland.

You're still completely missing my point.

Plug Ross Byrne into 10 at Leinster and they are still likely to have a better try-scoring record than Crowley with Munster. It doesn't by de facto mean Ross Byrne is a better attacking 10 than Crowley; he's not.

I would not expect Zebre to have the same try scoring record as Leinster, but I would expect them to have a better try scoring record than they do with Giacomo da Re at 10 (or than I would with Jack Crowley at 10).

Moving the goalposts here. Would you expect Prendergast with Zebre to have a better try-scoring record than Crowley with Munster? That's the same comparison you're actually making here.

You're conflating the performance of the team with the performance of the individual and that is - obviously - massively flawed.

The do indeed play substantially the same teams over the course of the season. They also play with entirely different teams. That - obviously - matters to a huge degree.

You can overlook that if you like and claim "the data says otherwise". But it's not in meaningful data when you're using a completely different teams' performance to compare 2 individuals performances.

The "over the same period" is problematic in the analysis too tho; generally, coaches will make more changes earlier in their tenure. Rassie, for example, gave 13 new caps in his first test, none of which will be baked into your stats.

To me, it seems like Farrell has gotten increasingly conservative as his tenure has went on. I defended him with regards age profile of the squad in 2023, but I think he's broadly been slow to freshen it up since then, particularly against Tier 1 teams.

South Africa should not be a good comparator for us at all; they have an endless supply of players that we could only dream of, spread across a huge number of teams. The fact that we're remotely in the same conversation is a good indicator that either Farrell changes things more than his detractors give him credit for, or Rassie is far more conservative and loyal than his supporters think.

That's kind of why I chose them - they have a huge amount of pro players globally, and they're the two time reigning world champions. Similar to us, they have not been in a period of transition over the period in question, unlike England or Australia for example.

The "over the same period" is problematic in the analysis too tho; generally, coaches will make more changes earlier in their tenure.

Until I show data that illustrates the trends have been broadly similar over the past few years and not just the last 5 years.

I think this is a flaw with @FtD v2's analysis tbh; I'd love to see the breakdown of mins vs Tier 1/2 Nations. And also there's no deeper dive into the minutes beyond the initial debut cap, or, say, the reason for any changes e.g. injury vs retirement vs actual rotation.

"Flaw in the analysis" - constantly looking for other perceived ways to cut the data, when as I've said before on other topics, feel free to do so yourself if you want.

As @realhorrorshow says - too often you're presenting something that you perceive to be the case. We all do that. I've attempted to here to actually bring some data to reinforce some of the points I've made, especially to just reinforce constant narratives that Prendergast sits too deep, isn't a running threat, etc.

I love Tommy O'Brien as a player, but he's not really a 15. I don't think he's played a top level game of rugby there, and I don't recall him doing so in school either.

He is an elite, blue chip winger prospect IMO. He's the fastest player in the Leinster squad and is a real out and out winger IMO - similar skillset to Calvin Nash, likes taking on players on the outside. He played a good amount of rugby at centre for the Irish U20s, and played a bit at 12 and 13 when he first broke through for Leinster (he's a brilliant tackler), he's been exclusively a winger for the last 4+ seasons really.