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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    And all of that can be true and Crowley can still have a better running threat. Which is the case, imo.

    But like…. Whatever way you slice it, he directly compared. It’s silly to argue he’s not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    To be fair, I don’t think I’ve said anything that suggests you were attacking or doing down Jack Crowley.

    Im just making the point that your means of comparison is flawed.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,772 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't think anyone was arguing otherwise. I think you are seeing something that is not there.

    The comparison was made just to highlight the absurdity of the claim that SP has no running threat. If that were true it makes no sense he would not have scored so many more tries than JC last season - gameplan and team around him regardless. It doesn't mean he's better for the reasons you highlight, but claiming SP has zero threat requires completely ignoring the comparison.



  • Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,287 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    A more valid comparison is with Ross Byrne, a 10 with, as a general consensus, no running threat, has 11 tries in 193 games (averaging 52 mins) for Leinster.... At a time when Leinster were pretty free flowing.

    Prendergast has 6 tries in 36 matches (averaging 49 mins) for Leinster, so practically triple Ross Byrnes strike rate.

    Interestingly Prendergast also has a better try scoring rate than Jonathon Sexton had since he returned from racing (11 tries in 79 games, averaging 56 mins). No one would argue that sexton didn't have a running threat as part of his game.

    So using these 3 valid comparisons it's very easy to show that the argument that prendergast has "no running threat" is complete bollox.

    It's about as valid as that time sometime on here said that Ross Byrne was more athletic than him.

    Prendergast really does bring out the crazie in some people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,356 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    Only my opinion but Sam seems like he wants to play rugby behind the gain line like Ross Byrne did. Hang back and spray passes and make kicks, and only when a really obvious gap opens up would he run through it. I don’t think he is that fast if he made a break in his own half could he finish it?

    For example, Damian McKenzie poses a running threat, Beauden Barrett did in his day, Ntamack poses a running threat.

    Sam doesn’t pose a running threat any more than the average players out there. Crowley poses a bit more of a threat but I don’t think he has elite speed either,
    i would like a real running threat at outhalf for Ireland and to be honest I don’t see it with either of these two.
    Funny enough, from what I’ve seen, the best running threat is Jack Murphy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    And I think you’re not seeing something that is there.

    He’s not trying to compare Prendergast and Crowley… by comparing their try scoring records… as a means of illustrating Prendergast has a running threat…? I dunno, Podge.

    Fwiw, I'm not saying Prendergast has no running threat; I think Crowley's is better. My only point was that using their try-scoring records to illustrate that is - at best - deeply flawed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,356 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    To make a case beyond the eye test you’d need to show how often a player makes a line break against a set defence. Or a simple one might be how often they run the ball versus kicks or passes. Generally though I’d go off what I see, and you know by looking at a player if they are offering a running threat or not.

    Scoring tries is more a function of how often an opportunity arises, and if your team scores more tries the opportunities will more than likely increase. How many tries do outhalves from Dragons or Zebre score in a season by comparison.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I think you'd probably need even more detailed stats than we are even likely to see available on generic stats sites; carries alone and metres alone doesn't really tell us a massive deal when there's no context of proximity to gainline, say. "average depth received from gainline per carry" would be an interesting one. The frequency of carrying vs passing/kicking is an interesting one tho.

    My own impression with the eye test is that, generally, Prendergast sits deeper and lets the gainline come to him, whereas Crowley takes it to the gainline.

    The other point here is that part of it is deliberate and systemic in the attacking system.



  • Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,287 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    really dont know how people are getting "doesnt offer a running threat" from.

    Sam is a very good kick passer of the ball, but that doesnt at all mean that he doesnt take the ball to the gainline to pick a hole when needed, nor take a gap if its presented. The argument that (other out halfs) are better at taking the ball to the line collapses when (other out halfs) end up at the bottom of a ruck after taking a crash ball. If you want a Handre Pollard bish bash out half fair enough, but i think most fans would prefer a ball playing, play making out half with a wide array of talent as options. Its the singular reason Ciaran Frawley will never be a top level out half. He will end up at the bottom of ruck way too often to influence a game.

    .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,426 ✭✭✭Yeah_Right


    Interesting numbers. Do you have NZ's? Similar population, 5 pro teams vs 4 and they awarded marginally less new caps than Ireland. How many of NZ's were against Tier 2 nations? Were any against Tier 3 nations?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,372 ✭✭✭ersatz


    On the number of tries Crowley/Prendergast score, ROG had 16 in his career between club and country. Not really what he was there for. 10s don't need to score tries, they need to kick their point and create scores for others. Both of them need to improve their kicking stats afaik. Neither are in the 80%+ range, thats not good enough for a top 3 test team.

    Unfortunately we haven't seen enough of Crowley in green to judge how well he might organise the team and the kind of difference he would make in attack versus what Prendergast has done. I'd still like to see him get some game time this November, particularly if he continues ot play we'll in red, though the kicking is a real problme.

    ON Prendergast being too deep and/or taking thing to the line, Dupont's disallowed try in the first 15 minutes in last years 6N was a disaster for Prendergast in my mind. He called the ball without any plan and telegraphed the poor situation he found himself in resulting in Keenan being tackled way behind the gain line, panic stations and another **** pass to Penaud. Brutal. that can be easily dismissed as growing pains in a pressure cooker situation, fair enough. But he did something eerily similar in South Africa.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 26,592 ✭✭✭✭phog


    we haven't seen enough of Crowley in green to judge how well he might organise the team and the kind of difference he would make in attack versus what Prendergast has done

    Wiki has Crowley on 26 caps v 9 for Sam, Crowley led Ireland to a 6Ns championship.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,372 ✭✭✭ersatz


    Im talking about since Prendergast took over. I liked Crowley a lot before then and thought his 6N season was excellent. The promise was that Prendergast would be a generational player who could manage attack in a superior fashion to what Crowley brought. I haven't seen it but seeing both operate in the same season would be a one way to put it to bed. For me the France match last season showed just how easily all the progress Ireland have made cold be frittered away. Lots of people played poorly but Prendergast looked way out of his depth, which compared poorly to Crowley's performance in France the year before.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,239 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Crowley played 10 in the a team that won the 6Ns. FYP



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,672 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    o gara had 16 tries in his international career, not his international and club career



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,372 ✭✭✭ersatz


    Right, 12 for Munster though which makes the other two look fairly exceptional.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭FtD v2


    This is 100% it. Conor Murray talks about this in his book - Ireland prize having their halfbacks get multiple touches or involvements in phase play. The idea was you’re no use to anyone buried in a ruck.

    The obsession on this thread with carrying the ball and making hits is absurd to me.

    As I’ve said before - if what we wanted in a 10 was someone to carry hard to the line repeatedly and smash people in the tackle, then Bundee or Stu McCloskey are our best options.

    Those are not the core skills of an out half.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Nobody is saying the 10 should run it every time. They’re not even saying they should run it as often as they pass or kick the ball.

    But having a running threat is a valuable skill for a 10 to keep defences guessing, and to keep them honest.

    Like, the reason Ross Byrne has left Ireland at only 30 is precisely because he didn’t have that in his locker.

    I remember distinctly a number of times during the 2024 6 Nations for example, where Crowley took it to the line and got the pass away while also committing the defender, for really good inroads.

    I remember Gerry Thornley describing him in the URC final as “passing under the noses of the Stormers”.

    I think that’s what people are talking about.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,239 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    You're literally describing Prendergast's game to a T. He plays flat to the line, with delayed passes to put dudes in space.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭exiledawaynothere


    Do you really think that? They are very different players. SP sits deep. Directs play. Yes he uses his pass to break the gain line and he kicks from deep. But he does not play as first receiver close to the gain line.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,239 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    He might receive the ball deep but he plays to the line. That's one of his strengths.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    He plays, and passes, flat to the advancing defensive line, yes. He doesn’t receive it as flat, or take it as flat to the gainline as Crowley, in general, imo.

    I think people are misinterpreting what’s meant by “line” here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭OldRio


    'Misinterpreteting'? on this thread? I for one are shocked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,356 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    Nobody wants a 10 buried under rucks all game, what we want is a 10 that can slip through a gap that other players can't get through, and also as @aloooof said, getting hands free to offload post contact or draw the tackle and release a player.
    The main issue is a player that looks like they want to run at a defence, and has the gas to accelerate through a gap and keep going to the tryline if there isn't any cover. Beauden Barrett a few years ago, or Damian McKenzie and recently Tomás Albornoz for Argentina seem to have lively stepping and accelerating from the 10 channel that creates doubts in the defence.
    If a 10 hasn't got the speed to do it once in a while the defence changes its focus to the centres and results in intercepts and getting trapped behind the gainline.
    When Mack Hansen came to Ireland first there was excitement that he might rotate in to outhalf every now and again to see what he can do, someone with his ability to evade tackles and release players around him would be amazing, Crowley at the moment is probably the closest to that type of player.

    By the way, I would also love to see us evolve away from Henshaw/Aki/McCloskey to someone like Hugh Gavin, Conor Forde or Dan Kelly that looks like they could make a clean break off first or second phase and take off behind the defence.
    We would have to change our attack play a bit but now is the time to start tinkering, 2 years out from the 2027 RWC.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,470 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Yeah I don't want a 10 at the bottom of many rucks. But I also don't want a 10 to not carry the ball into contact for feat of being in a ruck. I do want the 10 to be a threat to the defence and to fix a defender close to the ruck to cover the 10 in case they decide to carry into contact. I think Sam does that to a fair extent when he carries close to the defence before passing.

    I think he doesn't like the physical side of the game with or without the ball.

    He does a decent job of fixing the defender without ever taking the ball into contact. I'd prefer if he was dn actual threat of running through a defender occasionally, but given his physique, that's very unlikely.

    I've noticed the defenders don't even bother to committ to him (put in a late/marginal tackle on him). They cover him and as soon as he passes, they drift away to cover the defence. So it's not like he's taking the defender completely out of the play, but he does a decent job when he carries close to the line. Before passing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭FtD v2


    Yeah, that would be brilliant, but it's a secondary consideration. It would be brilliant to have a 10 with Barrett or McKenzie's footspeed and running threat, but firstly - neither Crowley nor Prendergast are close to that level, and secondly - that skillset is not deemed desirable in preference to the fundamentals of 10 play. As evidence of this - even the guys you've cited have been moved out of the 10 position lots of times because at times people have doubted their ability to execute the basics well - and we're talking about 2 players who are streets ahead of Crowley or Prendergast.

    Jack Crowley's primary weakness as a 10 is his ability to implement the gameplan the coaches want him to play, and to get the team playing in the right part of the field. Too many of his 'highlight' plays are ad hoc chips and re-gathers or aggressive carries etc, but too often I feel he's not doing what coaches want him to do. I've heard that said directly from a guy who worked as an S&C coach to the Irish team.

    Sam Prendergast steers an attack better than Jack Crowley does. If you compare their domestic seasons just last year - Jack Crowley played 1,374 minutes for Munster (17 games, all starts), and in the time he was on the field Munster scored 58 tries.

    Sam Prendergast, by contrast, played 16 games, 15 starts, but 1,003 minutes (so 371 minutes less than Crowley, equivalent to over 4.5 less games), and while he was on the field Leinster scored 69 tries. Leinster averaged a try every 14 mins or so with Prendergast on the field. He started every European game, and led the team to a URC win.

    Predictably - some (@alooof) are going to claim, but if you swapped them how do we know the numbers wouldn't be reversed etc, and unquestionably Leinster are a better team, but a huge part of that is Prendergast. To not give him credit for just how potent Leinster's attack is just not being honest in this situation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,297 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    A huge problem here is sample size.

    Like, we probably all got a bit carried away with Prendergast's performances in December/January/February when it looked like he could do it all. A few bad displays sucked the wind out of his sails and we're still trying to figure out what his actual level is. We likely won't know for quite a while yet.

    Similarly, when Crowley was given the jersey and we won the 6N, the assumption was that he was now the long-term solution, but again, the more we saw, the less certain that looked and pretty soon he lost the jersey. No-one really knows what his true level is either.

    So now we're at the point where every match is going to be hyper-analysed but the reality is that it we won't know where we really stand until at least the end of the season, if even then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,532 ✭✭✭ionadnapóca


    12

    Cough, Osborne, Cough Cough

    Remember him!?!

    For as far as Prendergast has come - 4th choice 10 v Munster last year - to international debut & starting outhalf 6 weeks later;

    Osborne started at 12 in that same game (and the week before and after that game) - then JordieB arrived!

    He didnt play at 12 again for over 6 months.

    I know Keenan is injured, Henshaw doesnt have the legs for 13, but Ireland need to have Osborne at 12 v Sharks, Munster and NZ.

    IF Osborne is given the Green light at 12:

    I'd be in favour of JGP-Prendergast v NZ & Aus.

    Casey-Crowley v Jap & SA.

    Gavin might be best at 13 (short-term) for Connacht. Osborne-Gavin is a very exciting prospective partnership at centre.

    I love Bundee but it would yet another waste to start him at 12 again this Autumn.

    (I dont know enough about Dan Kelly - What are is skills, Is he just more of a hard running 13?)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,342 ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    that skillset is not deemed desirable in preference to the fundamentals of 10 play. 

    Again, no one is saying it's in preference, at the expense of the fundamentals of 10 play. People are saying it is in addition.

    Predictably - some (@alooof ) are going to claim, but if you swapped them how do we know the numbers wouldn't be reversed

    I wouldn't want to disappoint you, FTD! ;) Btw, there's a reason it's predictable.

    To not give him credit for just how potent Leinster's attack is just not being honest in this situation.

    This is a strawman. I haven't not given him credit ("not being honest", eh?). He absolutely deserves some credit, of course he does. But does he deserve so much credit that comparing Munster's total tries vs Leinster's total tries is indicative of anything particularly meaningful when the difference in quality of the teams is so wide? No.

    I mean, it's not too many pages ago you said the following of Crowley in the England game this year:

    we scored two tries with Crowley on the field and two with him off the field. Crowley had a negligible involvement in either try (zero involvement in one of them).

    Yet by your above logic, we should be crediting Crowley because Ireland had a better try-scoring rate in his time on the pitch than Prendergast.

    It doesn't make any sense. But sure, "not being honest"…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,356 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    I like Osborne at 13 personally, think he is better at exploiting a bit more space, Gavin at 12 for me has the most acceleration.
    Good problem to have, plenty of options!



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