Charts ( up to T120) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Even at this late stage huge uncertainty about the weather over the weekend especially Saturday. Models have been changing track by the run but they were mostly all showing potential for some significant falls of rain over a relatively short time and had been showing the chance of strong winds running down along the coasts from a Northerly direction.

Most notably ECM 12Z showing it to be much windier on the latest run in parts overland and very windy in parts along the coasts but nothing certain as yet to where will get the strong winds or most rainfall as all depends how the LP evolves in such a complex set up, sandwiched between two arms of the the Jet moving in opposite directions .

Just leading with the ECM as I think it might have a better handle on it but would expect a change in the look of the charts over the coming days one way or the other.

UKMO similar winds but rainfall mostly in the E.

GFS quite windy, more so in the Eastern half of the country and extremely wet in the East as the chart shows below.

ICON not as windy and very wet in the SE.

24hr precipitation

Total accumulated precipitation

A couple of cooler days coming up in the N'ly breeze as HP becomes dominant , best chance of a ground frost early Mon morning, a bit milder from around Tues as the winds switch around more S'ly getting up to 13 to 15C or so, after todays rain remaining dry for most out to +120hrs , Thurs, cooler longer nights in single digits now as we ease into Autumn.

Becoming unsettled as the week progresses , mostly dry today and tomorrow but picking up frontal waves at times for the rest of the week as the Atlantic becomes more mobile, clear spells also so not a total washout but when it rains it looks moderate to heavy at times in those moisture rich SW'lys. In general looks quite mild for the time of the year, not a huge diurnal range, getting into the mid teens during the day and not dropping too low at night, seeing temps around 10C or so overnight. Becoming quite wet especially the further W as the week goes on. Big uncertainty with Extratropical Humberto at the end of the week, just outside the +120hrs but including here as could have an effect on model output over the coming days. ECM showing its remaining energy getting directed and squeezed in over Ireland with wet and windy weather but not stormy, showing some high rainfall totals whereas the GFS shows it as storm on its track up by Scotland and sending in windy weather over us but not stormy so models couldn't be more different in track and shape. ECM and GFS accumulation charts below are on the lower side with other models showing much higher totals but they are probably the best to use as a marker and a guide at this stage.

So models will probably be showing much different output as the week goes on and will be interesting to see how they handle and process the effects from Humberto entering our latitude . With that energy around towards the end of the week could easily see spin off lows and waves forming, I would think rainfall could become a bit of an issue as totals climb and the land becomes saturated towards the end of the week and will see how much rainfall the remnants of Humberto brings to us but not all hinging on it either as the weather pattern in its own right becomes unsettled coming across the Atlantic.

Adding the UKMO also. At this stage big uncertainty but it is showing a similar track to the ECM of Extratropical Humberto but more organized in this run, showing stormy over Ireland and very wet . ICON a different shape again more to the W but a lot of energy and wide wind field , wet and windy also, showing high totals up to Fri and very wet at times over the weekend .

ECM closer in line now with the GFS and ICON keeping the storm well off to the West, breezy to blustery overland but nothing too strong apart from near the coasts a bit windy . GEM giving wet and windy weather.

Will see what UKMO does later.

Models in total disarray this morning re Friday/ Saturday, tracks all over the place and from full on high impact storm to just a breezy / windy spell.

ECM showing a massive shift and showing the strongest winds in a head on collision with Ireland but this run is against the trend up to this morning so would need to see a similar chart on next run to have any faith in it. Will include for comparison sake but more than likely to change.

GFS less structured , not as closed and tightly compact as ECM but similar track bringing less strong winds in over Ireland although still windy enough, will see if there is more alignment in next run.