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Charts ( up to T120) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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31-08-2025 05:52PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Autumn 2025.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thank you.
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The final week of Summer 2025 saw a big pattern change back to unsettled and quite cool Atlantic conditions. This looks like continuing well into the first week of September and possibly beyond with no shortage of cloud, wind and rain or showers over the coming week.
The Green blop of slime will control our weather over the coming week with rain most if not all days and fairly windy as well.
On and on and on it goes
Rainfall while not overly heavy, will be frequent in the form of showers and some fairly wet days can be expected, but amounts not excessive.
Temperatures over the coming week will be mostly below average especially across western areas where 15C+ could be a struggle. Temperatures in the east may still reach 18C at times but feeling relatively cool and fresh everywhere over the coming week. The suntan lotion and garden furniture can be safely put away for the time being.
Post edited by Gonzo on6
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Models for later Sat through to Monday differing a fair bit at this stage. Showing various bands of heavy rain, all seem to show Sat night into Sunday as moderate to heavy rain crossing the country and blustery with it and thereafter it begins to become unclear. ECM 12Z is a bit of an outlier I reckon, latest output is a stark difference to earlier runs being much more benign than earlier.
How close the pivoting LP comes to our shores and what track is very unclear but a spell of windy blustery and wet weather possible around Monday. Models showing secondary lows, waves forming and the original low moving in over Ireland by some so a lot to be resolved over the coming days. Not showing anything too strong at this stage but some part of the country could get clipped by stronger winds but not showing storm at this stage anyway.
Some areas look to get big rainfall accumulations but again unclear depending on the tracks, models showing the SW initially on Sat/ Sun getting heavy rains.
Seeing some very mild temperatures overnight Sat into Sun. Thunderstorms possible at times over the weekend, maybe in those unstable fronts later Sat into Sun : showing high Theta E and W , moist warm buoyant airmass coming up from the SW with high DP's.
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ECM was probably first to pull away the stronger winds from the country over the weekend and the rest are now following suit, not the outlier I thought after all. Getting windy/ blustery on Sat with approaching fronts and wet and windy for a time through the evening and overnight but not as heavy looking as earlier, SW still looks to get the most, more so S Kerry /W Cork.
Sunday the wind and rain clearing somewhat through the morning / early afternoon, not as windy or wet on the latest runs, showers some heavy and some thunderstorms perhaps. Mon now a lot less windy, later Mon night into Tues another wave /low quickly developing , will have to see where that goes, might be a bit windy in parts but not certain as yet.
The Low although quite deep is not that compact initially, more elongated, gets down to about 977hPa off the NW and as it pulls away towards Iceland deepens a bit further but strong winds more NW of us. Big seas along the Atlantic over coming days.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Ireland faces the risk of wet and windy weather from Sunday evening into Monday morning as a deepening area of low pressure approaches the northwest.
Forecasts from multiple models, including ECM, GFS, GEM, and JMA, show strong southwesterly winds developing on Saturday afternoon and evening, later shifting to the west and northwest. The UKMO model, however, is less bullish on a deep area of low pressure forming as of Tuesday morning’s update.
While the finer details will evolve over the coming days, there is broad agreement on the likely track of the system.
The first named storm of the 2025–26 season will be Storm Amy, but current forecasts suggest that Sunday evening’s winds are unlikely to meet the criteria for naming in Ireland. Maximum gusts of 85–90 km/h are expected along the Atlantic seaboard, particularly in northwest counties. Gusts further inland are currently estimated at 60-70 km/h.www.weatheire.com
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UKMO full on stormy again this evening Wolfe but as we can see plenty of chopping and changing yet but in general the models holding a spell of windy weather for a time around Sun and Mon but still different tracks, strength and duration.
ICON quite windy in parts but strongest winds going through in a few hours, GFS good strong winds of 80 -90 km/h crossing the country, ECM went off the boil but coming back again but not as strong as earlier runs, 80 to 90k/h in parts but the strongest winds going trough quickly enough, blustery for a time, and the other models showing various tracks and strengths.
Most of the models showing a flabby center and some tight isobars further out and all look different this far out so very hard to know for sure how strong and where for now, Can see UKMO on the latest run much more defined storm system with tight isobars right n to the core deepening on approach to landfall. Time will tell.
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Gfs and Ecm overnight runs not too bad for Sunday night, but still rough enough on exposed coasts with 90-100km gusts into the Southwest
Icon is coming into view with 6z showing a more extreme solution
Ecm and Gfs have been firm enough with their track and strength of the low so I wouldn’t read too much into Icon yet
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A bit to go yet with pinning down how Sun/ Mon will fare. Very likely blustery and strong winds at times in places but track and timing a bit uncertain. The main models ECMWF and GFS showing the system to be a bit ragged with not a well defined shape but parts of it could contain strong winds especial on coastal counties. The more medium range models like ARPEGE and UKMO HD showing some strong to very strong winds especially later Sun night into Mon morning but a bit early yet for these models but the potential is there for some strong winds at some stage. In general a wet and breezy to windy Sunday in store ( although during the day could be quite light in places close to the center of the low during its passage with returning windy weather later Sun ) right into Monday with gales or strong gales in some coastal areas. Rainfall accumulations highest all along the Atlantic Seaboard Counties .
With the frequency and strength of the showers that are moving into coastal areas tonight you can sense how wet it is going to be over the coming days with showers and troughs streaming in under the cold upper airs and then the LP to arrive.
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The general look of the highest winds for Sun and Mon. A blustery frontal passage early Sun. Easing during the day and building again in the afternoon/ evening in Munster and spreading to the rest of the country, windiest overnight Sun into Mon and remaining windy/ blustery for much of Mon. Some models a bit stronger but ARPEGE for now about the average.
Probably not reaching Orange wind warning level but some counties could see yellow warnings but more so for overnight.
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ECM has a bit stronger wind speeds for Sunday/ Monday , some models stronger looking , such as ICON and UKMO, American models a bit lower, ARPEGE a good mean perhaps. HARMONIE quite similar to ARPEGE. Can see most of the rainfall along Atlantic coastal counties nearest the coasts which I can attest to over the last couple of days.
The coming Tues/ Weds another LP system to keep an eye on looks to come close to or over Ireland.
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The area of LP once it arrives on our coasts early Sunday sending the outer blustery fronts quickly across Ireland and then stalls and is slow to drift away thereafter keeping Ireland under windy conditions until later Mon .
Looking very windy along Atlantic coasts getting up to around 100km/h or so, maybe a bit more on exposed headlands. Seeing winds of 80 to 90 km/h inland from Kerry up to Mayo later Sun evening and widespread winds 70 to 85km/h or so sweeping across Ireland overnight into Monday morning and remaining windy all day and slow to clear the East later Mon night/Tues morning, so a long timeframe for windy weather. Busy populations in the East may experience strong winds for rush hour on Monday morning and as Robwindstorm said over in the Autumn thread this cold be felt that bit more owing to the fact trees are still almost in full leaf. Maybe Met Eireann will give more yellow warnings for that fact. Rainfall continues to be the highest along Atlantic coastal counties although the frontal passage will be heavy in places on Sun morning but the heaviest rain moving through in a few hours and turning to showers after.
The European models have increased their wind speed predications gradually over the last few runs especially along the coasts so not to be underestimated especially all the caravan parks and seasonal structures that may need to be secured well. The coasts should see this as a high end Yellow warning with strong winds over many hours. Midland counties will experience strong winds that have the potential to take down branches and move unsecured items of outdoor furniture etc.
Will see the models later this evening if any change one way or the other.
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ARPEGE 12Z that bit stronger again tomorrow night/ early Mon morning especially along Clare, N Kerry and bringing those strong winds up to 85km/h well inland and across through the midlands to the East and much of the southern half of the country as can be seen in the max gust chart.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Looks like Mace Head in Connemara produced the top gust overnight at 108 km/h . This is the strongest gust recorded in Ireland since Valentia Observatory, Co Kerry logged a 59 knot (109 km/h) gust on 20th February last.
It was hard to get to sleep in west Clare. A noisy night. Guttering at the back of the house came loose
www.weatheire.com
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Models suggest the LP moving up off the W / NW coasts later Tues/ Weds keeping much of the strongest winds off the coast but parts of the W and NW coastal areas experiencing strong winds, breezy to blustery at times overland, some models a bit stronger but the ECM is a good average at this stage. Some very heavy frontal rain being projected from later Tues passing up over the country and exiting the NE Weds morning.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on11 -
Lots of wet and windy weather to come this week, and Saturday catching my attention already. Ecm showing a wild output with very high rainfall totals mixed in with embedded thunderstorms as a low moves in from the bay of Biscay. Over 80mm in a 24h period on Ecm 12z in Limerick. Not a forecast but one to watch this week.
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Was looking at that Ros4Sam24. All the models showing different positions of the LP atm but that is an interesting scenario if something like what the ECM is showing tonight comes about, big fast wavy Jet going in different directions with a LP sandwiched between close to Ireland with a big mid level temperature contrast and in the 12Z showing strong winds coming from a NE direction, all the models showing N'ly winds, and cool to boot. Looks like a very complex setup , you would think it will go through a lot of changes from here to the weekend but defiantly one to watch with the Jet positioned like that.
ICON good for precipitation showing very high totals out to +120hrs
GFS 18Z just rolling out and beginning to show higher totals than previous runs.
Temperatures taking a dive closer to the weekend, Sat seeing temps getting up to 11 to 13C apart from the far SE on the ECM in fresh to strong winds but could moderate a bit yet , GFS into the mid teens and LP in off the NW different position loads of uncertainty but at least looking quite unsettled.
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