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General Premier League Thread 2023-24 Mod Note in op 27/6/23 And 21/05/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,901 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    Well it definitely wasn't by using a shots on target stat anyways.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    i think xG is a useful stat.

    like everyone knows when someone misses a sitter. how'd he miss that? ah, what a miss! thats what xG is, and assigns a numerical value to the chance that was missed.

    same goes for a worldie. you take that shot 10 times, and you score it once. xG of .1.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,901 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    I don't think clubs ever used assists as a metric, and if they did they should be shot. And then even more so if they are using assists to judge a central midfielder.

    There are other stats such as xGchain which can record midfielders contribution in terms of creating chances consistently which are helpful when analyzing midfielders creativity. It's one of many stats what are useful.

    It's funny when you look at the 'old school' stats and you realize how useless they are really. There was one going around a few years who where some Man Utd fans used to love parroting the fact that David De Gea had made the most saves in the PL, to show what a great goalkeeper he was. First of all if a goalkeeper is making a lot of saves, that means he is facing a lot of saves and that is not a good thing. And then second of all, deeper stats were showing that while making saves, he was not catching them and instead was rebounding the saves into dangerous areas which in turn was creating another chance for the opposition. In layman terms, he was saving shots from distance (typically harder to score from) but was palming them into the 6 yard box for an easier chance for the opposition to score from a tap in . The old school metric of 'shots saved' was painting this picture that he was great as he was making saves but in reality he helping the opposition with where he was putting the ball and so the new metric of psxg was measuring his shot saving performances more accurately. He was severely underperforming.



  • Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭ Van Tall Cemetery




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,901 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    They definitely use it, yes. And stats like xg, and it's dependent stats, are a large reason why some clubs have gained an advantage over others when recruiting new players and can exploit gaps in the market. And then you can see the clubs who are spending big money and being left behind as they are buying the wrong players.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,794 ✭✭✭McFly85


    xG is definitely a useful stat, gives a very quick glimpse into the type of chances in a game and can give some longer term insights too - like I remember reading about Ireland having conceded 9 goals from outside the box with the total xG for those still being less than 1. So while we should have been closing down better, we were really unfortunate that some of those seemed to be the best shots the opposition players ever took!

    I think it helps too that people understand the metric more, I remember at the start some pundits thought it was more of a predictive model and rubbished it when they saw a big difference between xG and the result.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,252 ✭✭✭kowloonkev


    I was watching a game recently, it might have been the Chelsea cup semi final and a player ran through on goal one on one with the keeper, rounded him and defenders got back and he didn't even take a shot. So that didn't even exist according to xg.

    Simon Harris is monitoring the situation...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,794 ✭✭✭McFly85


    Think it’s a cleaner stat when it’s a subset of attempts on goal, like out of 10 shots they had a good chance to score 3 goals. If you start including thing like rounding the keeper or square balls across or anything like that it becomes messier imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,901 ✭✭✭✭Fitz*


    If a player doesn't take a shot, then how do you expect it to be registered as any type of shot stat?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,892 ✭✭✭✭CSF


    I think people just struggle to comprehend that the idea of a perfect stat not being possible to predict future outcomes, doesn’t mean that there are stats available that are far more predictive of future outcomes than looking at previous outcomes.


    Like, I would think that Darwin scoring a hatful at some stage is a quite likely thing. But he will still probably always have a lower conversion rate than clinical finishers



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,160 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    Michael Dawson continuously going on about how Spurs biggest objective is to stop Arsenal. Shows how much of a small time club they are.



  • Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭ Van Tall Cemetery




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,246 ✭✭✭golfball37


    why that conclusion exactly? I’m a spurs fan and feel the same, it’s about not wanting to see a local rival win the bloody league. If shoe was on other foot they’d feel the same and they not a small time club by a long shot



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 58,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Ah, it's natural with local rivals though imo, like United have had a worse season than Spurs but were absolutely more than happy to piss on Liverpool's parade. It's the same with Arsenal and Spurs tbh. I know I'd not like Spurs winning anything myself.

    Dawson is wrong on one thing though, the game does have significance for Spurs as they can still get top 4 and have games in hand on Villa, he's just deciding to gloss over the fact that there's pressure on them too 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    hopefully we get goals as both teams need to win.

    Team to play Arsenal: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Davies; Hojbjerg, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Maddison, Werner; Son.

    Subs: Austin, Dragusin, Royal, Sarr, Bissouma, Lo Celso, Gil, Johnson, Richarlison.

    Team to play Tottenham: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu; Partey, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Havertz, Trossard.

    Subs: Ramsdale, Kiwior, Zinchenko, Jorginho, Smith Rowe, Vieira, Martinelli, Jesus, Nketiah.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,252 ✭✭✭kowloonkev


    I think Arsenal will be too good for Spurs. They have matured a lot since last year even though it may not be enough.

    Simon Harris is monitoring the situation...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,205 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    So rather than consider the point honestly, you would rather try to pretend that Rashford and Maguire are on a par with Salah and Van Djik. Whats next, Onana is just as good as Allison?

    Stop being so precious, nobody is losing face by acknowledging that Liverpool have some all time great players after all, even if that does mean they should have had higher expectations than the worst United team in decades.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    whats the advantage rule these days? cos spurs got zero advantage there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,160 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    They played the ball into the box. Not being good enough use the advantage is not the same as getting none.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 527 ✭✭✭bdmc16


    After Newcastle really exposed spurs high line in their last games, thought that the pace of a Martinelli/ Saka combo would have offered a real threat to spurs high line and offered a lot more width.

    Havertz and Trossard in form but not as much as threat on the break. Spurs will press hard so there will be a lot room to break if arsenal can get it right:



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,892 ✭✭✭✭CSF


    Would probably still say their chances were better from a free



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,160 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    At any point they could've stopped and the ref would have gladly given them a free. They chose to try play on. That's not down to the ref.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    havertz hit the back of the net but odegard offside



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,160 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    That was a lot closer than I thought in real time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    i suppose if thats the rule then its fine. but then nothing should ever be called back after advantage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    goal. hoijberg OG



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,673 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    so the advantage rule is decided by the players?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    spurs looking dangerous here from set pieces



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    goal spurs from VDV. from a corner



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,252 ✭✭✭✭y0ssar1an22


    this looks very close



This discussion has been closed.
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