Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog · 26-06-2022 7:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250935#Comment_119250935

Our country has been harmed by instability for the last five years.

What is the point of this club if we are depending on British parliamentarians to decide our fate? Same old.

If it's all good and all powerful it shouldn't reach that point. Again - if we were France or Germany do you think they'd be depending on British votes deciding their fate?

ancapailldorcha · 26-06-2022 8:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250952#Comment_119250952

You've been pushing for this to happen for half a decade and now you're pretending to be concerned for Ireland when you seem almost gleeful that this might happen even though it won't.

Ireland leaving the single market to become a vassal state of London would be an unmitigated disaster. Ireland would become a second world country almost overnight. London gets by by being a global city and a world centre for finance. The southeast has two outstanding University towns and tech hubs. As for the rest, Brexit means Brexit.

This daft fantasy you've spent years trying to push on others won't happen no matter how badly you want it. I've no idea why you keep pushing it.

breezy1985 · 26-06-2022 8:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250817#Comment_119250817

Ah Kermit good to see you back. You went missing for a while there after all your screaming about how we were screwed a few Mondays back and then nothing happened.

pixelburp · 26-06-2022 8:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250817#Comment_119250817

You have some nerve to pull a patronising tone with folks here when you consistently, arrogantly proclaim the sky is falling for 6 years, despite it never actually happening and the logical contrary points spelled out to you repeatedly.

You shamelessly find quotes to match your desires, then calculate backwards to the wrong result. You'd think with Claire Daly and Mick Wallace we shouldn't put much stock in the wittering of a single MEP - or any single elected rep. One swallow does not mean a summer. Should we dig out all the times you declared with certainty we were about to be shafted? You know that takes effort so are probably banking on people not having that degree of pettiness.

Mind you, the succession of posts slamming you for your fantasies probably just emboldens your resolve so maybe I am the fool.

Ham Grenade · 26-06-2022 8:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251013#Comment_119251013

you can’t really equate Sean Kelly to Mick Wallace/Clare Daly. He’s lead author for the European Parliament for new legislation aimed at responding to any breaches of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement by the British government.

A lot of people here will have egg on their puss if this Kermit lad is proven correct.

ancapailldorcha · 26-06-2022 8:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251030#Comment_119251030

The EU will betray Ireland any day now. For six years.

FraserburghFreddie · 26-06-2022 8:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251013#Comment_119251013

I agree with kermits view that Ireland doesn't have as much sway as many here believe. I also believe the US can't be relied on to put the UK in its place over the protocol as they can't sort their own country out,let alone Ireland/UK.

Hermy · 26-06-2022 9:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251068#Comment_119251068

You could say the same about the UK re sorting their own country out.

Ever since Brexit they've been sliding down a grubby hill all of their own making.

And if they persist in this way - which seems highly likely - things are only going to get worse for them.

pixelburp · 26-06-2022 9:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251030#Comment_119251030

The word "if" is doing all the heavy lifting here. The tedious user has consistently predicted Ireland being turfed out of the SM for 6 years. 6 years of the same "any minute now" thread phrased with barely disguised gleee. The record hasn't changed and each prediction was based on a passing comment at best, or headline teaf-leaf reading at worst.

I don't know how the current impasse is solved but each time there has been one, the UK has folded to some degree. All this is internal "look over there" tactics by Johnson and have no great fear myself this is a serious , considered tactic.

Ham Grenade · 26-06-2022 9:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251122#Comment_119251122

I wonder why a respected MEP like Sean Kelly is lending weight to it? Surely all this does is embolden the UK an ERG types?

FraserburghFreddie · 26-06-2022 9:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251109#Comment_119251109

I agree the UK needs to sort itself out,although the longer Johnson continues to 'carry on regardless' puts another nail in his and the tories political coffins.He will continue to cause damage to the UK and probably Ireland unless the EU call his bluff which I don't believe they have the guts to do.

ancapailldorcha · 26-06-2022 9:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251138#Comment_119251138

Embolden the UK? What does this even mean? They're out. They can't do sh*t to the EU now. Their market for EU exports is tiny.

Honestly, the desperation some people have for calamity to befall Ireland so they can be right on an internet forum is beyond words.

pixelburp · 26-06-2022 9:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251147#Comment_119251147

This ain't a game of chicken though. The EU has a mechanism for punishment - and it's the legal action it has restarted against the UK. We're sticking to the method. When one country is steadfastly determined to ignore and break international law, now is not the time for the other side of the issue to start behaving similarly. And if recent events are to go by, Johnson may not be long for this political world.

Rash action is unwise, especially when every other trade partner/rival is watching what the EU does. If Turkey, the US, China etc see a weak EU bending to the UK, then the bloc becomes globally vulnerable. There's more at play here than placating the whims of a noted shyster PM trying to make an enemy of a friend. China only then needs to push dark money into every country with a threadbare relationship with Brussels.

The nuclear solution here is a hard Irish border, but nobody wants that - but the EU - ie, Ireland - doesn't want to be ejected from one of the key pillars for our economic stability either. One would hope anyway. The border counties' own economies won't be considered worth the price of sabotaging everywhere else in the Republic. Maybe I'm only projecting my own bias, but I'd rather a big concrete wall around Clones than Ireland leaving the SM.

breezy1985 · 26-06-2022 9:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251147#Comment_119251147

They have called his bluff on a number of occasions now.

Every time he has said he is going to end his own "oven ready" deal nobody stops him but yet he doesn't go ahead. That's the textbook definition of calling his bluff.

Ham Grenade · 26-06-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251158#Comment_119251158

Calm down lad. What I meant was that if the UK see this as a potential option being taken seriously by senior MEPs they will continue to undermine the NIP and proceed with associated legislation

wexfordman2 · 26-06-2022 10:09am

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/potential-foot-and-mouth-case-in-uk-a-concern-for-irish-farmers/

Potential end of any argument regarding sps checks comming in to ireland from gb

ancapailldorcha · 26-06-2022 10:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251169#Comment_119251169

Another element is the EU's ability to unilaterally suspend parts of the deal. That means blocks or tariffs on British exports and potential restrictions on imports.

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2020, UK exports to the EU were £251 billion (42% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £301 billion (50% of all UK imports).

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

In addition, they could ground flights. We've already seen thin skinned Brits lose their minds by having to join the non-EU queue in airports. How would the Tory middle classes fare if they can't visit their French holiday homes or Spanish villas?

Ultimately, the EU sees the UK as going through the end phase of toxic ethnic English nationalism in the form of the Conservative party. Johnson is now as toxic as Major post-ERM or Corbyn in latter 2019. He's leaning heavily on the culture war for support and has appointed virtuous anti-wokeys as his cabinet.

That was fine until very recently. Economics has trumped culture as the top concern most voters have. When people are anxious about the cost of living, Oliver Dowden's virtue signalling about the BBC not having enough Union flags is perceived as the transparently pathetic ploy it clearly is. I always cleaved to Bill Clinton's mantra of "It's the economy, stupid". When the middle classes have their Butlins, M&S, cheap flights and homes that they own outright then they're happy to screw over anyone else.

The problem is that this demographic cannot replenish naturally due to the soaring cost of living which has been happening here for several years now. No amount ranting about remoaners alters this. There simply isn't a sufficient amount of people with vested interests in the system for it to continue as it is. An alleged historian might have seen this coming had he not been so consumed by his interests in Abba and procreating.

26-06-2022 10:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251030#Comment_119251030

Something being put in legislation has been mentioned multiple times in this thread, definitely by myself anyway. If the EU were to start a trade war and put pressure on the UK via the Channel, it makes sense that something would be written down saying the SM is protected. My own theory was that it would be a wishy washy thing not looked at properly for a couple of years or until the UK properly diverged.

Akrasia · 26-06-2022 10:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251232#Comment_119251232

The tests came back negative thankfully

Kermit.de.frog · 26-06-2022 11:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251013#Comment_119251013

The very idea my posts about Ireland leaving the SM are a fantasy - it's true and it's happening now as we type.

ancapailldorcha · 26-06-2022 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251483#Comment_119251483

Source please.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-06-2022 11:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251493#Comment_119251493

Not engaging beta. I, the alpha, have given you the answer already. Read back.

Fionn1952 · 26-06-2022 11:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251508#Comment_119251508

....Jesus Christ, could we not set the bar a bit higher than this type of nonsense?

schmoo2k · 26-06-2022 11:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251483#Comment_119251483

If the UK do follow through on their latest kite flying exercise (and that is a bigger "if" than Sean Kellys), then at some point the existing checks on UK goods entering the SM will need to include goods from NI entering the SM. At that point I would expect our response to be very harsh (like Kermit wants).

I think the only thing Kermit and I disagree on, is WHEN the harsh actions should be taken - IMO it shouldn't happen while its kite flying by the UK, which pushes it back at least 12 to 18 months.

PokeHerKing · 26-06-2022 12:15pm

The choice is and always has been the same for the Republic. Hard border on the island or in the Celtic sea. The EU couldn't really do much about that without the UK playing some sort of ball.

If the UK do follow through then they're not playing ball and their will of course need to be checks somewhere. The Republic will decide where wed prefer those checks.

I would expect the EU to bring a trade war to the UKs doorstep in response but the checks are still required. Not sure what way I'd vote if given one, on the one hand I know what a border on the island would bring but the Celtic sea border not so much.

Bombs and shootings are pretty visible but obstruction to business less so.

Interesting times ahead regardless.

26-06-2022 1:15pm

Since Kermit always makes a splash here, can we entertain the idea of checks and what they would mean for Ireland? Land border is a complete no go.

Personally, I don't think it would mean being out of the Single Market at all. Ireland's biggest physical exports:

Pharmaceuticals: US$67.5 billion (35.5% of total exports)

Organic chemicals: $37.3 billion (19.6%)

Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $16.9 billion (8.9%)

Electrical machinery, equipment: $15.4 billion (8.1%)

Machinery including computers: $9.6 billion (5%)

Perfumes, cosmetics: $5.4 billion (2.9%)

Dairy, eggs, honey: $3.91 billion (2.1%)

Other chemical goods: $3.9 billion (2.1%)

Meat: $3.86 billion (2%)

Aircraft, spacecraft: $3.4 billion (1.8%)

If it takes 20+ hours for the ferries to reach mainland Europe, and you put every customs checker on those boats instead of on the UK - EU routes, the goods can be checked at sea. Along with some exceptionally harsh laws on smuggling and outlandish fees for going on the boat with a bad shipment, how could it not be managed?

The EU could do its trade war unofficially by simply facilitating seamless trade between Ireland and the rest of the EU. Putting all of the customs check lads on those routes and incentivising EU ferry companies to serve Ireland would absolutely cripple the UK's imports and exports, and London couldn't even claim it was punitive. A trade war by accident. And of course the EU could take more explicit measures.

I don't consider myself to be a complete numbskull so could anyone enlighten me as to why this worst case scenario is even that bad? We aren't the UK and our country isn't built around JIT with mainland Europe, and we have a long ferry on which to do checks unlike UK-EU. I just don't see why people say checks means we're out of the EU. Like look at our exports.. A lot of the most valuable stuff isn't even made in the UK.

Nody · 26-06-2022 1:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251947#Comment_119251947

First of all, checks in Ireland is very much a possibility; the only thing you do is target where you do them and what you go after at the start (i.e. target trucks & vans with focus on the main through puts and put it a bit back from the border rather than try to catch every single point with a control combined with roaming checks). It does not necessary need to be 100% perfect day 1 but you can make it painfully clear to the NI business what it will entail to help put pressure on London (this is obviously done in tandem with all the other ports on mainland EU).

Secondly I highly doubt you'll see checks on the ferries because they will need access to specific systems, specific tools to lift out pallets, run tests etc. which you don't have on the ferry. At best you can look at the paper work but that is unlikely to be enough as you can't even rely on something like seals (because you don't know what was packed in before the truck was sealed).