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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    The good old Great British imperialiasm - play nations like the chess pawns, scheming , and gunboat diplomacy and also starve populations while exporting food (Ireland, India, Burma...).

    Looks like Britannia is coming back. Thankfully this current Great British idiotic lot can't pull it off, it's not 1850 anymore. UK is largely irrelevant now.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    There's no "almost". This entire debacle has shone a light on this reality, and nobody is falling for it. The Brexit Ultras are believing their own hype that the EU is some fractious, chaotic entity that can't make decisions. They're finding out the hard way the truth of this



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    In fairness, the closest thing the EU has to a tradition is its fondness for kicking the can down the road.

    That said, while the UK did initially take the lead with Ukraine, it rapidly lost ground while the EU got its act together much, much more quickly than anyone dared hope. The Brits did send weapons but they just couldn't help but indulge in performative cruelty towards refugees. Meanwhile, Germany under a centre-left coalition u-turned on its entire foreign policy overnight.

    The fact remains that the UK is and always was a supplicant to the EU once it voted for Brexit. It has no experience in negotiating trade deals and is a net importer for goods while being a net exporter for services.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,352 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Its not really fair to compare the speed of response from a single country compared to the entire EU.

    I mean people say the EU were slow to react but try tell that to member states like Poland and Estonia down in ground zero of the refugee crisis.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I did point out that once the crisis was underway, the EU did act with remarkably unity. Baffling when you consider that Hungary is a member.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,362 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    'Baffling when you consider that Hungary is a member.'

    For the time being.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Peter Hitchens is apparently saying that England should secede from the Union. I actually think the UK breaking up is an excellent idea but I very much get the impression that this is all for some sort of mythical sovereignty that they know does not exist.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,302 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    Given the dogs dinner they're making of leaving the EU one can only imagine what lies in store if they attempt to leave their own little union.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I mean, the UK is already England plus three satellite states. I'd say they'd ironically be in a strong position for negotiating but it'd cause massive instability. I don't think Welsh separatism is particularly strong politically. Plenty of Scots, probably a vocal minority would probably be up in arms as well.

    It won't happen. Johnson is much too imperialistic to even premit a border poll in NI or a second IndyRef.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,352 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's just more of the majority playing the victim nonsense.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Personally, I like the idea of a federalised UK on the lines of the German lander:

    I do sympathise a bit with people in the north of England. They've been starved of investment for decades, never voted for it and they see the Scots getting both more spending per head and more separatist.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The idea of an independent, federalised England makes a tonne of sense, but immediately comes up against the mythological centuries of "tradition".



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    To be fair, England has historically been relatively stable, particularly when compared to the French. The less said about the literal hundreds of states and statelets of the erstwhile Holy Roman Empire, the better.

    That said, it's funny how tradition and stability were jettisoned when it served Cameron and then Johnson to do so. Rees-Mogg might take pride in being the honorable member for the eighteenth century but only when it suits him.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,352 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    You all ready have the NUTS/ISL regions used for statistics which isnt far off that map.

    For anyone complaining about Scotland and Wales getting a parliament this is the fair solution but would cause such a change to how voting works in the UK that I guarantee the same people will cry about it's implementation.

    The true complaint behind all the English whingebaggery is that the conquered won't shut up and know their place like they used to



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    Actually on the topic of weapons to Ukraine from the UK, has there been any solid figures for all the dick waving of military support by the different countries to Ukraine? I remember a lot of articles of the UK showing Ukraine military a bunch of stormer AA and other equipment very early in the war, but most media covering the actual fighting has mostly been highlighting the use of Turkish Drones, American stingers and Javelins (of course those could be British bought american javelins).

    I'm trying not to go full conspiracy, but Johnson's government is well known for getting the photo op of them achieving before they actually do it. For example the UK Australia Trade deal was announced as a done deal in June to save Boris from the disaster that was the G7 summit at the time, but the actual deal didnt happen til December.


    And like I said a lot of news stories tend to be framed in terms of what the UK 'will' send to Ukraine X or Y, or will give Poland challenger tanks so they can give Ukraine their T 72 tanks.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I haven't any sources. I do recall reading credible reports about them sending anti-tank weaponry and providing training before the war broke out. I'd be inclined to believe them. The war is a godsend for arms manufacturers. The obvious aside, they're getting high quality data of how their weapons perform in an actual war. That's going to be worth a fortune.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Not the right thread, but.

    There is a lot of anecdotal but consistent (and verified) evidence on social media (Telegram, Twitter mostly) of UK hardware in Ukraine, from the most-publicised NLAWs to much more obscure armoured 4x4s and, most recently, state-of-the-art Brimstone AT systems. I do believe that the Brits are delivering on the hardware front. Most others as well, e.g. Australian and Dutch APCs, US M777 howitzers, Swedish AT launchers (…)

    As ancapailldorcha just posted, the real-life combat-use data accumulating in Ukraine for each of these weapons and other khaki hardware must be worth its weight in solid platinum, for weapons manufacturers and dealers. Sod politics, for them it’s worth sending the stuff over free of charge just to see if and how well it works, then how to tweak it better.

    Sales reps at weapon exhibitions will be having the time of their commercial life in months and years to come…well, for western arms manufacturers, that is.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,362 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think the Russians have discovered that, when in contact with a Javelin missile, their tanks are well - no tanks. Helicopters fare not much better when flying against manpad ground to air missiles like the Stinger, and as for their flag ship, .....



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    It wouldn't matter how many ukrainens we shelter or how hard the Brits make it- ukraine thinks more of the Uk- thanks to British weapons - than us



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation




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  • Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



  • Posts: 17,381 [Deleted User]


    If the minds in London continue down this path, the US won't support an EU border there either. I think that is what the UK is banking on, and you'd be forgiven for thinking Pelosi's and similar messages were aimed at all involved.

    A pessimistic early morning take but I foresee a very bad trade war, the UK largely cut off from mainland EU, heavy penalties for smuggling, and spot checks on the ferries between Ireland and the mainland. The UK will argue that these checks are sufficient and the EU will have to maintain the trade war. This would take years to transpire.

    The optimistic take at the end of this would be that Ireland hurt itself to protect the GFA, while the unionists supported all they could to wreck it, and a reunification vote fixes everything. The pressure on GB would be enormous with everyone there wondering how NI could possibly be worth it.

    Let's see how I feel in half an hour when this coffee kicks in.



  • Posts: 17,381 [Deleted User]


    Hmm yeah I feel like that was way too pessimistic.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I can't see the UK actually doing anything. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that the only real thing they want to achieve is stunting growth in Northern Ireland. All they're doing is playing the same silly game they've played since Johnson took office.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,480 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    The big whole in their entire argument is that they are arguing that the new border is creating these massive problems, which in the case of NI will lead to instability. But of course that raises the very question of what the raising of barriers across the entire economy will do? If it is so bad going from GB to NI, aren't the same problems (paperwork, form filling etc) going to be replicated agains the whole of the UK?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I think we can agree that whatever else is going on over there, rigourous questions being asked by the media is not one of them. There's a shocking lack of incisive dot-joining going on; maybe it's the more anti Brexit outlets are too chastened to circle events back to the inherent folly of Brexit, worries they'll lose the argument in the eyes of some.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,558 ✭✭✭yagan


    The screws can be turned by compliance, for example if a NI company decides to act as a conduit for passing GB goods into the EU without the proper certs then they risk permanent access if they're caught by spot customs checks along the border. Retailers in the republic who try to sell on this contraband risk penalties too.

    So overall it's probably just going to be low scale smuggling for car boot sales in the republic. Customs checks don't just happen at borders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,480 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    The problem is the UK have a history of failure of carry out proper customs checks (china goods I think) and they are currently into implementing any checks into the UK.

    So why should the EU trust that the products going into NI form GB are staying there? The UK have refused the EU having an office in NI, refused access to real time information. They have stated from the very outset that they want to get rid of standards and red tape.

    And now they are, for the second time, threatening to break international law to suit themselves. But we are supposed to trust them?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,985 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I don't think the Tories care one way or the other.

    The existence of the Protocol in its current form is an existential threat to Johnsons government as if they shut up and let it just tip away working quietly (with the tweaks and improvements that the sensible folks on all sides accept can be made) it will only further highlight what an absolute disaster Brexit was , is and will ever continue to be as the NI economy continues to out-perform the rest of the UK.

    There is no long term plan or "Big Picture" , this is about Boris surviving week to week and the Protocol and the useful idiots of the DUP are an effective tool to distract and deflect from the absolute fact that they have no idea about how to make Brexit anything remotely like a success.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I mostly agree with this but I think your final point contradicts somewhat the initial sentence.

    I think the Tories are almost solely concerned about their own survival. As a secondary concern, I think they resent the protocol on the basis that it represents a comprise with as opposed to a triumph over the EU. The DUP resent the protocol because they argue that it divides the UK, which it does but it's also the inevitable consequence of their actions from 2016-2019. This makes for a convenient platform upon which the Tory party can attempt to stoke the Brexit debates and the rancour they entailed.

    That said, they know full well that repealing it would destroy the UK's reputation abroad completely and utterly. More importantly, they know that the EU will retaliate and that it will do so in ways which will target the Tories' base. I don't mean the northern voters, I mean the middle and upper classes of rural southeast England. Revoking parts or all of the TCA would devastate this country and it would be solely because of this government. Southern Tories don't care one whit for poor pensioners spending whole days on buses to keep warm but they'll be livid if they can't fly to their holiday homes in France and Spain.

    There's a real stench of decadence off today's Conservative party. The organs which win elections are working as well as ever. The rest of the party has ossified however. There is no narrative to prepare for a future influx of Tory MP's and voters. Heck, they're not even pretending to oppose corruption as we saw during the Owen Patterson scandal. They feel so emboldened that they've got their most toxic elements on full display. Time was, you'd stick the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg in a dark room somewhere so he can't cause too much damage. Instead, he's supposed to be finding opportunities in Brexit but he's instead bullying civil service staff and waging war on remote working because his friends are losing money on their city centre properties.

    When I moved to the UK, it was for a secured job offer. I didn't just take a risk and then look for opportunities. This seemed prudent but not so for the apocryphal party of fiscal responsibility and discipline.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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