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French Pres thread -2022

135

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    If she doesn't do it this time she's likely never going to do it. Next time there will likely be a new centrist candidate that won't have all of the baggage of Macron - given French history chances are he won't even make the final 2 next time. If she fails twice in a row in the final 2 then she's a busted flush.



  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    France has term limits now so I think Macron is limited to two consecutive terms anyway. If he does win it isn't obvious who the centre candidate next would be.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Any opinion polls?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I forgot she actually ran in 2012 also, so while she did ok then to finish 3rd, unless she hits the post in a few weeks then yeah it would be madness to run again.

    Even those who think her politics are great will be thinking "enough is enough".


    She has been fortunate in the last 2 cycles that the traditional parties have been a mess and the left has been struggling. Now or never .



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2




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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I know it's mad to be looking at it already but the 2027 election will be mad. Has Macron built a real party or a one man show ?

    Can FN become the new standard bearer for the right under a less fascist candidate or do they double down?

    Same for the communists. Try again with Melenchon or go with someone with less baggage.

    Do the Rep. try reclaim the centre and stay Gaulist or go full Tea party ?

    Same for the Socialists. Go for the centre or the Melenchon voters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Yes, if Macron wins next week 2027 will be wide open. I wish the far right tide could recede there. I'm tired of worrying about the future of Europe each time they vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    if it wasnt a danger to the EU I would say put her in and show her up once and for all like in Italy but there is too much to lose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Who knows smart takes after the 2017 was that the establishment parties would get their **** together and at least one of Le Pen and Melenchon would be gone and whoops.

    The LePen conondrum is fascinating, Marine has clearly detoxified the party somewhat and back to back top 2 finishes is a good effort, but I dunno is their enough voters to get them over the line. Marion is a young pretty face, but she seems much more conservative on everything and I dunno if that is what is needed.

    The centre right will have to a think, Pecresse ran a wretched campaign trying at times to win voters from Zemmour/Macron which was silly, hopefully for their sake with Macron gone they don't feel the need to go as extreme .

    No idea about the socialists, have had 2 horror campaigns in a row, they can't be as useless next time hopefully.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    There is also always the danger with fascists that once they go in you won't be easily to get them out again. They have a habit of weakening democracy and institutions from the inside.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,453 ✭✭✭sam t smith


    Is the EU really so fragile?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Currently - yes.

    With unanimity required in some important decisions (it used to be all) then those decisions can be blocked by just one member. Even when unanimity is not required, there can be unholy alliances between some member states that block wider issues.

    France is a 'large' member state, founder member, and carries political weight within the EU - so if it goes rogue, it can cause a lot of damage to all the institutions. Let us hope that it does not go that way. Britain has already gone (that way).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,453 ✭✭✭sam t smith


    Sounds like the EU is not fit for purpose.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Depends of what you consider its purpose is.

    Ireland has benefited hugely since we joined the EU. We have gone from being a huge beneficiary to a net contributor. So economically, we have benefitted from membership - but so have all members.

    It is not a military union, but an economic union of states that agree to abide by democratic principles, the rule of law overseen by the EUCJ, and continued closer integration.

    That is being achieved - but let a fascist in - well that is where it breaks down. Fascists are anti-democratic - so that is the first problem. How to get them out is the next one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    The EU has many problems but it's generally been a force of good in Europe for the past 70 years and it's been incredibly good for Ireland since we joined.

    If you apply the same lens to many countries they are pretty fragile these days:

    • The USA - had an insurrection and one of the two parties has been taken over by an extremist fringe who appear to only want to fight Culture Wars and believe conspiracy theories
    • The UK - has never been closer to collapsing than in the years since the Brexit vote


    And yet for all these failings the EU, UK and USA are all vastly better for the average citizen who lives there than the alternatives in this world which are authoritarian dictatorships that ride roughshod over human rights. You only need to look at the manner in which Ukraine are fighting off the Russians to see a people who realise the truth of this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Lads please ignore the CA/IMHO rabbit hole Bllshte.

    Plenty of other threads discussing the wider issues in the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Not great for MLP...its not curtains yet, but her numbers have trended downwards nearly every day.


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1515001994750144517?cxt=HHwWisC5sbKSr4YqAAAA



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Good. Is there only one debate and when is it on?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Wednesday I think.

    She was very poor last time round which cost her a few votes and probably meant she did not get 40%.

    I don't think a good effort their will pull the win out, but at least if she can get past 45% ,,saves some face.



  • Registered Users Posts: 485 ✭✭Wildlife Actor


    Are they monitoring for online interference by Russian bots in France I wonder? I'd have assumed the bot farms would be going all out for a big win a la brexit trump etc, given how close it is.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,465 ✭✭✭swiwi_


    Macron fairly destroying le pen so far in the debate. She really is weak when it comes to finance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    happy to hear that Macron didn't blow it last night - not that I expected him to but it seemed like the last speed bump left for him.

    Hopefully he has it in the bag now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    His biggest worry now is that the Rep. and communist voters who vote against Le Pen rather than for him will now stay at home rather than vote because they think he has it won.

    It's a pity that French elections are over with a quick exit pole. I would love an evening of results and beers like in the US.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    I’m slightly worried.

    Probably just nerves, anxiety compounded from the Brexit 48/52 ‘accident’ of old (lived at the coalface here), Macron vs LePen 1.0 wherein he wiped her out in debate properly and not quite so this time (same again, except this time I’ll be voting in Luxembourg instead of Leeds), crapulous ethno-nationalists like Orban, Erdogan, Bolsonaro (etc, etc) still not getting rejected here and there and everywhere despite the socio-economic evidence of the past few years…

    …but I’m slightly worried. About an accident borne from unexpectedly-high abstentions, xenophobia and grey voter gaslighting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    The polls are closer than last time but its still a comfortable lead for Macron.

    Maybe their is a silent LePen voter, apathy from Melenchon voters which may make it closer than the polls are suggesting, but that was suggested in 2017 and Macron outperformed the polls.

    I understand that because of Brexit and Trump their is always nerves, but Brexit was always close in polling and Trump due to the EC had a major chance, but I don't recall seeing many repeats of those races since then,,,heck if anything the so called far right have under performed when it comes to Europe especially.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Betting odds for what its worth on betfair have LePen expected to get between 40-44....if so then yeah its an improvement on 2017 but still not great considering how useless the establishment parties are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,084 ✭✭✭letowski


    Clean right hook by Macron. Commentary online points to MLP debating poorly again this election cycle.




  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Way better than the 18% her Dad got against Chiraq.

    Also what established parties ?

    Macrons 5 year old party is the only other runner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    She did not debate well on the merits, but she came across to those polled during the debate, as having the better understanding of their issues/plights. Can’t link that poll right now, but it was shown in the post-debate commentary.

    For a populist like MLP, that doesn’t come as a surprise. Simple fudge answers to complex problems, what opinionated simpletons want to hear. And it is what has me worried. How much of the electorate -especially the more gullible portion- drank some more snake oil last night, and enjoyed it. In that context, I can’t shake off the aggregate MLP / Zemmour / Mélenchon voting tally of the first round from my head. 52%, to Macron’s 28%.

    I guess we’ll see.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The thing with Brexit was that it was promised as all things to all people. Farhaan was told that he couldn't have his aunt over from India because there were too many Europeans, John could get a job because the job-thieving Europeans would stop coming, carers wouldn't have to have their wages lowered, etc... Vote Leave basically just identified each voting cohort's concerns and then lied to get the Leave vote.

    Le Pen doesn't have that blank canvas to work with. I don't know enough about French political culture to call it one way or another but surely the "Global France" trope is a non-runner. I can't see the French being too excited about a new trade deal with Laos or Cambodia. The anger that fuels the far right is widespread but by no means ubiquitous.

    I think it's too tight to call personally though if pushed I'd plump for a slim Macron win.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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