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French Pres thread -2022

245

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    If Macron vows to repeal the Le Touquet agreement in his first year of term, I may be persuaded to vote for him as early as in the 1st round 😜



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Yeah while I think Macron wins this comfortably , its not the foregone conclusion it was a few weeks ago,,the obvious problems for LePen is their such a sizable percentage of voters who will never vote for her and I dunno has she improved at debating? Trump had a performance like she did v Macron a few years ago. The election was over as a contest before then, but it ensured she had no chance of reaching 40% which what she had targeted.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1509194089400606724?cxt=HHwWiIC9veeB3vEpAAAA



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Not going to spam the site with twitter links, and its not groundbreaking news when it comes to that potential 2nd round match up, obviously Zemmour supporters fav LePen hugely, Pecresse favor Macron and Melenchon supporters (small margin tbf) favor LePen. 😐️

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1509258338399571969

    Post edited by Rjd2 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    3% of first round LePen voters would vote Macron 🤣



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  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Quite depressing that Melenchon voters would favour Le Pen



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    As a leftie myself it's been real disheartening to see the emergence of this vacant "anti establishment at all costs" voter. Sanders supporters who voted Trump clearly were not listening to a word Sanders said and there was real potential for M5S in the early days too but they were full of this sht too.

    If I had a vote I wouldn't vote for Melenchon anyway cause he is anti EU but some of his supporters only turn me off him more



  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    I agree. It's disappointing to see the far right and far left getting together. It feels like if le Pen doesn't get in this time someone like her will the next time. It still looks like Macron will manage it this time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,361 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    That Horse-shoe theory of far-left meeting far-right has been in full affect during the Ukraine invasion with neither side focusing on Russia when looking for who to blame. I'm not surprised that the far-left voters would think they have more in common in the far-right. For them the worst thing in the world is to be a "centrist". I have no idea why - something to do with being anti-authoritarian and having their brains pickled by online disinformation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The far right and the group posing as far left don't have the numbers to win in France.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I still find it very unlikely LePen will win for numerous reasons, but this poll will slightly unsettle Macron somewhat.

    Interestingly last time round Melenchon did not endorse Macron , just said don't vote LePen, if its close on Sunday assuming its the expected two in the final round he will come under serious pressure to do a proper endorsement of Macron.

    Although their is plenty of cynics who would suggest in private Melenchon would rathe LePen win .

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511019774633025538



  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭Repo101


    Le Pen and Melenchon are not that different. Both are conspiracy nuts who should be no where near running a modern democracy, of course Melenchon gets very little bad publicity outside of France because he is far-left but he would be equally as toxic and damaging as Le Pen. Both desperately play the anti-establishment card so its no surprise there is crossover between voters. Le Pen has a very remote chance and Melenchon has absolutely no chance of being elected.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,472 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    Probably now what Macron wanted in the last week.

    Jewish man got hit by a tram and died in February police wrote it off as just a traffic accident, his family reached out to people in the area for information and got a video of a group attacking and chasing him. Issue got a lot of attention after the father reached out to Zemmour.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,361 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I still find it so weird that Zemmour manages to straddle being both Jewish and far-right. Don't get me wrong, I've seen Israeli politics - I know that jewish people can be far-right. It's just weird seeing it in European politics given what happened to them in those countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,094 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Anti semitism today is strongest on left and the further left it is, the more virulent it is.


    It's a natural default that Jews will distance themselves politically from that.


    That's happened in more countries than Just France.


    That's human nature.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's because Israel is massively right wing and the left tend to support Palestine which then gets labelled as anti semitism.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Macron and LePen to the next round (no major surprise there based on polling in the last month) with Macron coming out slightly ahead in the first round. The big question is with the (yet again) lower voter turnout if the voters may end up going voting (protest against Macron, "they are all the same" etc.) and give LePen the win.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I think with the Socialists in bits Melenchon is actually bad for the left. I think a better candidate gets them past LePen. He done great work to build them up but he is carrying baggage at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Le Pen from what I seen and could be wrong has slightly underperformed compared to the polls we seen this week.


    She will do better than 2017 but and I could be wrong here will do well to get more than 45%.



  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    I hope you are right. I'm just relieved that Macron did better than expected in round one. I was afraid she might even come first.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern



    socialists greens and left won 26 ish percent of vote while the other right parties gained another 12 percent very hard to see her to get really over 36 to 37 percent, and more likely bellow 35 percent in second round .



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Agreed they underperformed vs. polls (saying neck and neck with Macron) but performed as expected in the sense that they made the run off against Macron and with a margin at that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    No crazy racist Zemmour to hide behind in the second round.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    But plenty of right / left wing voters to go behind her instead. This is not really Le Pen's election to win but rather Macron's to lose in the sense that he needs to get voters out to vote in an time when people feel the pinch. There's a risk that people simply don't vote or vote against Macron like voters did during Brexit; sound snippets and easy solutions for everyone...



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I don't see her getting many more people to vote for her than last time and I think all the reminders of racism and Putin will bring non Macron voters out.

    Seems to be a narrative being pushed that "the left" (Melenchon voters) are all up for grabs but it's not really true. She is expected to get 30% of his vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,361 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    This seems like an odd thing to come out with given the atrocities the Russians have been committing in Ukraine.


    I know that a lot of her supporters don't care one way or the other but surely this will cost her with the voters that she needs to win over from the first round.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    France has been out of NATO before and this will probably appeal to some Melenchon voters but given the current situation surely this is a bad move politically.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I can't find it now but online it was stated that while she obviously will win majority of Zemmour voters in the second round, it won't be as many as some think.

    A lot of the Zemmour voters last time round voted for Fillon who ran a pretty right wing campaign, the issue they will have with LePen she is simply to left wing on economics , they may actually find Macron the lesser of two evils.

    I don't understand the Nato comments, even if you back her logic, it seems a very foolish statement overall. She will know she is going to be playing defense when it comes to Vlad, why give Macron more ammunition.

    I will probably regret this, but I actually think she will struggle to crack 45% in the second round.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Ya she should really do everything possible to avoid talk of Putin and Ukraine. I could see a fairly high abstain for Zemmour voters who were with him for economics rather than racism. The racists will go to LePen.

    Melenchon voters are the key and honestly I think there are enough real leftys still out there in his vote base that would never vote for a fascist. One thing that was interesting in the breakdown is he won almost every French overseas territory and I really can't see them go LePen.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Its going to be interesting to know what is the percentage that Marine would need to run again next time?

    She should get at least 40%,,,but anything under 45% then for her own sake you'd hope someone tells her "its not going to happen ever"....

    Her niece is much more conservative economically ..and I do think it hurts Marine that she has been around for what seems like forever ala Clinton in 2016.



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