February 23rd/24th 2022: Snow and Wind Warning

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2022 1:04pm #1

Met office snow and wind warning for Antrim,Derry,Fermanagh and Tyrone. Definitely their "best" snow warning of the season.

Temperatures across Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to drop sharply following a squally band of rain on Wednesday, with frequent heavy and blustery snow showers arriving from the Atlantic. Away from immediate west-facing coasts, 2-5 cm, and in places 7-10 cm of snow is likely to build up even at low levels, whereas on higher ground some places could see 20-30 cm building up by Thursday morning. The showers will be accompanied by strong, blustery winds, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible, and a small chance of 70 mph on coasts. Blizzard conditions are likely over higher ground. There is a very small chance that some of the showers could be accompanied by frequent lightning, which may could impact power supplies.

Met Eireann yet to issue a warning. NW counties most at risk. 10cm would be orange territory but let's see if Met eireann see it playing out the same. Anywhere could see a dusting come Thursday morning but thats a slim chance for some areas, perhaps there will be a blanket yellow snow and ice warning for the country to cover all bases and if the Met office estimate of up to 10cm for low levels are correct that would be orange territory for parts of the NW.

pauldry · 22-02-2022 2:13pm

There may have to be a yellow hail warning for Sligo as if its that blustery I don't think we will get snow here. Also a slightly milder sector happens after the initial very cold before a cold sector blasts in during the day. Might be 2 or 3c here. For last Saturdays snow it was 0.2c but for the snow that never came with Eunice it was 1.2c. 0.9c is the sweetspot on average in the past few years I have had snow in Sligo. Its probably higher inland away from warm Atlantification. Can definitely see some problems for NI.

highdef · 22-02-2022 2:34pm

I've looked at the model output for the UKMO and am not seeing anything of significance for NI. The maximum snow depth that the UKMO model is showing on Thursday morning is quite low and it seems a bit patchy and mainly for high ground, with the largest depth of only about 3" expected to be in Donegal, ROI......outside the scope of the UKMO warning. Am I missing something?

Gonzo · 22-02-2022 2:46pm

I doubt ME will release a warning for snow as the chance of disruption is slim to none, maybe a temporary dusting in places over high ground and the GFS is overcooking it compared to the other models as usual. It will be another typical situation of fast moving showers giving a brief moment of squally hail or wet snow.

GEM and ECM leaves us in the green with only some white peaks.

Icon has no snow cover whatsoever.

Certainly for lower levels this looks like a non event in terms of snow.

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2022 3:01pm

Gonzo for adjoining counties in the Republic beside the warning area I doubt the chances are slim to none as you say "I doubt ME will release a warning for snow as the chance of disruption is slim to none, maybe a temporary dusting in places over high ground"

The met office must be seeing something to warn of up to 10cm at low levels with 20 to 30cm over high ground. Maybe they are completely wrong but I don't understand how you can be so dismissive of their warning, they're usually a lot more conservative with snow warnings than met eireann are for Donegal for example. Anyway I'm just repeating the warning from them but it would be unwise to completely dismiss their warning as maybe a temporary dusting to high ground and a non event. They know more than us, that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be right though.

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2022 3:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118673029#Comment_118673029

There latest forecast would suggest they will follow with a warning maybe this evening or latest tomorrow morning and more than likely go yellow countrywide.

TOMORROW - WEDNESDAY 23RD FEBRUARY

Tomorrow morning there will be sunny spells and scattered showers. A band of rain will move into the northwest later in the morning and will move southeastwards across the country during the afternoon and evening, turning heavy at times. Scattered wintry showers will move into the northwest in the evening. It will be quite windy with fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds. Early afternoon temperatures of 6 to 11 degrees but turning gradually colder from the northwest later.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Summary: Starting cold and breezy or windy with wintry showers. Turning milder later in the week with some decent dry spells by day.

Wednesday night: It will turn much colder early on Wednesday night as rain clears to the east. Showers will follow behind, falling as sleet and snow in places leading to poor driving conditions. Chance of isolated thunderstorms as well as hail, with lowest temperatures of -2 to +1 degrees allowing for some frost and icy stretches to develop in mostly moderate southwest winds.

Thursday: A cold and windy day with sunny spells and blustery wintry showers. Snow showers and icy stretches during the morning will lead to tricky driving conditions. Some showers will be heavy with possible hail and thunder, especially in the west and north. Highest temperatures of 3 to 7 degrees, coldest in the north, with an added wind chill factor in strong and gusty westerly winds, with strong gusts at times along western coasts.

Danno · 22-02-2022 4:17pm

Changed the title to reflect the dates concerned - can update it again if required, just let me know!

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2022 4:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118673645#Comment_118673645

Thanks. I'm a novice at starting these.

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2022 4:44pm

Staying unsettled & turning cold over the next few days with wintry showers on Wednesday night & Thursday. 🌨️

Some snow ❄️ is likely in places & showers will be heavy with possible hail & thunder too. ⛈️

The cold spell will come to an end by Friday. 📈 https://t.co/3eUwcD22XD

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2022 5:35pm

Latest update from met office

Wednesday:

Some brightness, especially at first in east. Otherwise generally cloudy with showers merging at times into longer spells of occasionally heavy rain, turning to snow during the evening. Windy. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Heavy snow showers Thursday dying out later, some significant accumulations possible in west. Initially drier and less windy Friday, then milder, windier again later and through Saturday, with occasional rain.

Gonzo · 22-02-2022 6:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118673141#Comment_118673141

The Met office warning is for NI and doesn't affect the republic. In situations such as this Northern Ireland usually does better than the republic as it's much further north with the major exception of Donegal which would have conditions more similar to Northern Ireland or even south-western Scotland.

For the vast majority of the country this will be like the spells of the past few weeks, wintry showers which may or may not give a temporary covering and unlikely to cause disruption unless your travelling across higher routes.

What annoys me the most is when we get these yellow warnings for snow/ice during a zonal pattern, many people who do not have the interest or knowledge in the weather like we do and get worried as soon as the yellow warning is issued and think that a widespread snow event is on the way. As recently as 2 weeks ago there was a snow/ice yellow warning for parts of western Ireland and the local Meath radio station LMFM put up a post on facebook regarding dangerous conditions with snow cover for Meath and Louth, despite the fact there was no warning anywhere near here. The media love to make a meal out of this and this worries people who are usually not going to be affected.

I remember a few weeks ago reading a post here on boards that a shop somewhere in the country (can't remember where) the owner was suggesting to his elderly customers to stock up on food in case they got snowed in.

Back to the current situation for Thursday, ME may issue a snow/ice warning for parts of the west and Donegal but even there most of it will be low level stuff away from high ground unless we get some upgrades to this forecast over the next 48 hours.

Latest GFS 12z looks like even less covering compared to the 6z

GEM 12z very similar to earlier.

Arpege is very limited with the snow as well.

Icon also rather limited with mainly high ground seeing lying snow.

Even for Northern Ireland this looks very limited. Aside from the GFS which does show 1 to 3cm of snow, the other models don't seem to be supporting much in the way of lying snow so I wonder why the UK Met are forecasting 10cm for low levels across the north. Let's see if there are any upgrades in the models tomorrow.

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2022 6:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118674360#Comment_118674360

I Find some times the ARPEGE and ICON model struggle with these set ups as it can be hit our miss. The tend to upgrade snow cover closer to the time when there is more certainty. I find that the ECMWF and GFS at this range are the best to go with until tomorrow. The met office UK do use the ECMWF and GFS also. When I read there warning early I think some of them big accumulations the referred was mostly for Scotland.

pauldry · 22-02-2022 7:57pm

I find the UK terrible at predicting our weather in the main. Often they show it dry and sunny in Ireland only to wake up the next day to a deluge. The snow won't be anything like last Friday and Saturday. Maybe a dusting on the roads and paths first thing in the NW but then frequent heavy showers of hail and sleet and MESS

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2022 8:02pm

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1496092845605797889

JanuarySnowstor · 22-02-2022 8:06pm

Looks like heavy snow showers tomorrow night and early Thursday right across the country. Expect several cms on higher hills. Should thaw quite quickly through the day on Thursday and lower ground will see little or any lying snow.

A notable event, albeit a 12 hour one!

pauldry · 22-02-2022 8:55pm

In true dunbelievables weather forecasting here's where I expect snow Thursday

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2022 9:33pm

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Blustery showers of hail, sleet and snow with icy stretches on untreated surfaces will lead to hazardous driving conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Valid: 22:00 Wednesday 23/02/2022 to 10:00 Thursday 24/02/2022

Issued: 20:18 Tuesday 22/02/2022

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2022 10:52pm

Here's the difference between the ECMWF and GFS regarding snow (blue), sleet (beige) or rain (green) tomorrow and Thursday.

ECMWF

GFS

JanuarySnowstor · 22-02-2022 11:01pm

Gfs 18z continues the risk of widespread heavy snowfall over the country tomorrow night.....while the Met give their usual 'most likely Connacht and Ulster' I actually think the coldest air is across the South for longer.

A highground event primarily but notable perhaps for its impact

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2022 11:07pm

UK Met Office's General Aviation area forecast for northern UK (incl. N. Ireland) for 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday, issued at 16Z today. Not much in the way of snow mentioned, but some small hail showers (SHGS) and thundershowers (TSGS).

Regional Outlook (Valid 0600-1200 UTC)

FLOW BECMG VERY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR.

UK Extended Outlook (Valid 1200-1200 UTC)

AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IRELAND AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND AT 12Z, MOV SE TO LIE LINCOLNSHIRE TO CORNWALL BY 24Z, AND CLEARING SE ENGLAND BY 10Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A BAND OF OCCASIONAL RA OR SHRA WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RA AND RISK OF TS/CB.

AN UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NW OF THE FRONT, BRINGING ISOL SHRA TO MOST AREAS, BUT OCNL SHRA OR SHRASN AND HEAVVY SHGS OR TSGS/CB TO THE NW UK. SE OF FRONT GEN BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOL SHRA, MAINLY AFFECTING W. WINDS: SE OF FRONT, GEN MOD W. NW OF FRONT, GEN STRONG W TO SW, BUT STRONG TO NEAR GALE NEAR FRONT AND IN FAR N, WITH ISOL GALE FORCE GUSTS IN AND AROUND SHRA/HVY RA IN FAR NW.

Meteorite58 · 23-02-2022 12:49am

Breezy to blustery at times and some strong winds along the NW again on Thurs.

Will be interesting to see if the trough and weak occluded fronts bring snowfall, might be a few hefty hail showers and thunderstorms ,Thurs morning looks like it could be fairly active, loads of localised wintry showers.Will have some nice white mountain tops for pictures.

Have a feeling some of the hail showers could be a feature, very convective looking.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-02-2022 1:01am

Latest UKMO aviation forecast for Scotland and Northern Ireland at 06Z Wednesday. Moderate to heavy snow/thundersnow showers along the leading cold front shown below, which at 06Z lies off the northwest Donegal coast.

Met Situation Valid at 0600 UTC Wednesday

A STRONG TO VERY STRONG UNSTABLE WSW FLOW COVERS THE REGION. TROUGH LIES N6030 W01030 TO N5900 W00930 TO N5800 W01030, MOV ENE AT 45KT. FIRST OCCLUSION LIES N6100 W00900 TO N6000 W00730, MOV ENE AT 45KT. FIRST COLD FRONT LIES N6000 W00730 TO N5800 W00730 TO N5630 W01000, ENE AT 45KT IN NE, BUT MOV ESE AT 30KT IN SW. SECOND OCCLUSION LIES N6200 E00100 TO N6100 E00100. WARM FRONT LIES N6100 E00100 TO N6000 E00130 TO N5800 E00030, BOTH MOV NE AT 30KT. SECOND COLD FRONT LIES N6100 E00100 TO WICK TO SKYE TO N5530 W01000, MOV NE AT 30KT IN NE, BUT MOV ESE AT 30KT IN SW.

Weather Conditions

Zone 1

NW OF A LINE, N6200 W00030 TO LERWICK TO N5900 W00500 TO N5600 W01100, THIS LINE MOV NE AT 30KT IN NE, AND ESE AT 30KT IN SW:

GEN 45KM, WITH 3-6/8CUSC 3000FT/13000.

OCNL, FRQ TROUGH AND FRONTS, 6KM IN SHRA OR SHRASN, WITH 3-5/8ST 1200FT/1500 AND 5-7/8CUSC 2000FT/18000. OCNL, 1800M IN SHRASN OR SHSN, WITH 3-5/8ST 800FT/1500 AND 7/8CUAC 2000FT/20000. ISOL, 200M IN HVY SHSN OR HVY TSGS OR HVY TSSN, WITH 3-5/8ST 600FT/1500 AND 5-7/8CB 1500-3000FT/15000. WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. SEV ICE AND SEV TURB IN CB. TS. WDSPR MOD, OCNL SEV, TURB BLW 6000FT.

Zone 2

SE OF ZONE 1 AND NW OF A LINE, N5800 E00000 TO DUNDEE TO GLASGOW TO LONDONDERRY TO BELMULLET, THIS LINE MOV SE AT 30KT IN W, AND ESE AT 10KT IN E:

GEN 20KM IN OCNL RA, WITH 5/8CUSC AND AC 2500FT/8000. OCNL 5000M IN SHRA OR SHRASN, WITH 3-5/8ST 1200FT/1500 AND 5-7/8CUSC AND AC 2000FT/10000.

OCNL, FRQ FRONTS, 1500M IN SHSN OR SHRASN OR SHRAGS, WITH 5-7/8ST 800FT/1500 AND 7/8CUSC AND AC 1500FT/12000.

ISOL, OCNL FRONTS, 400M IN HVY SHSN OR HVY TSGS OR HVY TSSN, WITH 5-7/8ST 400-600FT/1500 AND 7-8/8CUSC AND AC 1500FT/13000 AND EMBD CB 1500- 2000FT/18000.

UK Extended Outlook (Valid 1800 Wed - 1800 UTC Thur)

AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT LIES MIDDLESBROUGH TO LANCASTER AT 12Z, MOV SE TO LIE LINCOLNSHIRE TO CORNWALL BY 24Z, AND CLEARING SE ENGLAND BY 10Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A BAND OF OCNL RA OR SHRA WITH ISOL HVY RA AND RISK OF TS/CB.

AN UNSTABLE W FLOW FOLLOWS NW OF THE FRONT, BRINGING ISOL SHRA TO MOST AREAS, BUT OCNL SHRA OR SHRASN AND HVY SHGS OR TSGS/CB TO THE NW UK.

SE OF FRONT GEN BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOL SHRA, MAINLY AFFECTING W.

WINDS: SE OF FRONT, GEN MOD W. NW OF FRONT, GEN STRONG W TO SW, BUT STRONG TO NEAR GALE NEAR FRONT AND IN FAR N, WITH ISOL GALE FORCE GUSTS IN AND AROUND SHRA/HVY RA IN FAR NW

Artane2002 · 23-02-2022 3:28am

This is one of the more potent polar maritime shots I've seen modelled, uppers getting down to -9C in some places going by the ECM with countrywide -8C uppers and low heights too. The GFS with its cold bias is even showing -10C uppers and 516 dam thicknesses, which won't happen. Hopefully everybody gets something to see out the winter because this will probably be the last cold snap of meteorological winter.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-02-2022 8:36am

Heavy prolonged showers by tomorrow morning, many of snow. Disruption quite likely for hilly areas but thawing also evident in between showers. A more general thaw after lunchtime.

A potent event that might give us 12 hours of Wintry weather!!

Kermit.de.frog · 23-02-2022 10:32am

It's difficult to reconcile the atmospheric profile overnight and tomorrow morning with some of the more conservative predictions on snowfall vs rainfall content of the shower activity expected.

GFS seems closer to me and even that looks a little conservative particularly in the west.

The only thing against is the distribution of shower activity nationwide. It could be the early hours before we see showers advance more westward across the country.

How frequent they will be a major factor.

I'd expect a least a dusting for most areas but be prepared to wait and have sleepy eyes.

nacho libre · 23-02-2022 11:13am

I am just curious what do people mean exactly by a slight dusting? Is it 1- 3cms of snow on the ground. I think some places in the favoured spots could get more than that by 7 am tomorrow morning. Higher places will have more of course.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-02-2022 11:20am

Met Eireann a bit slow getting warning up compared to UK Met.

Would have thought nationwide yellow with favoured spots orange

pauldry · 23-02-2022 11:39am

Nah I've seen this before. The satellite showing very active showers out at sea. As they reach us their intensity will lessen somewhat so some areas in the North and West will see very few showers and other areas heavier lines. I'd say Donegal will get a covering but the rest will see showers that refuse to lie and dusting will be only brief coverings.

Ulster might also see more in warning areas as that heavy band in Donegal moves East.

snowgal · 23-02-2022 11:43am

yes looks like some white stuff everywhere. in meath it looks possible between hours of 3-7 or 8, another early morn or late night if thats the case! although doesnt look like a huge amount, ill take anything at this stage!

Gonzo · 23-02-2022 11:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677352#Comment_118677352

Meath as usual will see very little from this and by the time the showers do reach us most of us will be in bed and it will already be getting milder by sunrise. Not interested in doing an all nighter to catch a few flakes blowing in the wind.

highdef · 23-02-2022 11:56am

I'm still not sold on this "snow" event. The models, including the UK Met Office's own model support nothing more than a dusting in the vast majority of populated areas with a covering really only expected on high ground. When I say a covering, I mean at least 2/3cm of level snow, not just a centimetre or so with patches of ground with little or no cover and other areas with mini drifts. The latest UKMO model run is showing a maximum of about 10cm in Donegal over the border in the ROI and that is high enough terrain, generally over 250m and peaking at over 400m. Apart from that it shows nothing more than dustings (1 - 2cm) here and there, mainly across Ulster.

My own take on the forecast is that there will be plenty of snow and hail showers (some thundery) overnight with brief coverings overnight in lowland areas (below 150/200m). A few favoured fairly low-lying areas (say 100 - 150m ASL) of the inland north and northwest will be in the sweet spot for bountiful amounts of snow showers whilst being inland enough to negate the marine influence but not so far inland that the showers have lost their "oomph" and these spots may have a covering first thing in the morning but with the sun now as strong as mid-October, combined with non-uniform covering, solar radiation will have almost everything melted by lunchtime.

Above about 300m, but possibly nearer the 400/500m mark, overnight snow showers will leave a covering for the day, due to an inability for the sun to reach soil level because of increased depths of snow.

For the vast majority in the north and north west, people will be posting messages and photos of beautiful snowscapes of the land, hills and mountains above where they stand but very few posters in lowland areas will post photos of decent coverings of snow, except perhaps in those few favoured sweet spots that I previously mentioned........and only if the photos are taken early enough in the day.