Technical / Discussion Tropical Cyclones 2021-2022

🌀 BATSIRAI IS ABOUT 300 KMS FROM GRAND GAUBE, MAURITIUS; INTENSIFIED TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TRAVELLING AT AN ACCELERATED SPEED OF 22 KM/H

⚠️ DIRECT THREAT FOR MAURITIUS & REUNION ISLAND ⚠️

[A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS]

Information about BATSIRAI @ 22Hr00 on 1st February 2022:

Date: 01 February 2021

Time: 22Hr00 Mauritius/Réunion

Status: Intense Tropical Cyclone

Atmospheric pressure: 975 hpa

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) sustained: 165 km/h

Maximum wind gusts: 230 km/h

Position: 17.7 South / 59.0 East

Distance from Mauritius: Around 300km to the Grand Gaube

Distance from Reunion: Around 500 km to the North-East

Travel: West-South-West, at 22 km/h

BATSIRAI is a dangerous Intense Tropical Cyclone that continues to approach Mauritius and Reunion Island and represents a direct threat for these islands.

BATSIRAI is now moving north of the Mascarenes. It confirms a move in a general West-South-West direction, bringing it a little more directly closer to Mauritius and Reunion. Its intensification has resumed and classifies it as an intense tropical cyclone.

BATSIRAI therefore has the potential for a very dangerous system in the immediate vicinity of the islands. It should pass as close as possible to the North of Mauritius on Wednesday at nearly 170 km (Pointe Aux Canonniers) at about 13Hr00 then to the North of Reunion, probably during the night from Wednesday to Thursday at nearly 180km.

Pray for Madagascar

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2 (BATSIRAI) Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km/h. Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h. Estimated pressure at the center: 945 hPa. Position on February 05 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.8 South / 49.4 East. Distance from the Reunion coast: 610 km to the sector: WEST Distance from Mayotte: 990 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST Travel: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 20 km/h. System information:- Intense tropical cyclone BATSIRAI is located less than 100 km from the planned impact area on the east coast of Madagascar. BATSIRAI remains a very dangerous system and will remain so until its arrival on earth, always likely to cause considerable damage to the impacted areas.- BATSIRAI is on final approach to the east coast of Madagascar and should land in the next few hours at northern proximity to the town of Mananjary, thus presenting a very serious threat to the area. The conditions are now well deteriorated in the areas with strong winds (gusts of more than 200 km/h at the point of impact in the next few hours), waves of 10 to 15 meters as well as a surge that can exceed 1m immediately south of the point of impact. Significant coastal flooding is to be feared in these sectors. It will also be accompanied by heavy rains which may then extend over part of the southern half of Madagascar, once the system has landed.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (EMNATI) Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h. Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h. Estimated pressure at the center: 973 hPa. Position on February 19 at 10 a.m. local: 15.9 South / 58.9 East. Distance from the Reunion coast: 655 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST Distance from Mayotte: 1510 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST Travel: WEST, at 19 km/h. System information:- EMNATI is a tropical cyclone whose intensity stabilized overnight. A resumption of intensification is still envisaged for today. EMNATI is expected to become an intense tropical cyclone over the weekend. Fluctuations in intensity are however possible.- The system continues its trajectory towards the southwest before straightening towards the west-southwest more frankly from Sunday. On this trajectory, EMNATI is approaching the Mascarenes this weekend and then the east coast of Madagascar early next week.- The preferred scenario sees the system pass about 320 km in the northern sector of Mauritius at the end of Saturday night to Sunday then about 300 km north of Reunion on Sunday evening. Uncertainty on these crossing distances is still significant, around 100km. - A deterioration in weather and sea conditions is expected from Saturday for Mauritius and Reunion. On this scenario the conditions should be a notch below the known conditions for BATSIRAI. Please note that a more pessimistic development cannot be ruled out at this time. Residents of the area are urged to monitor the situation.