Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

1352353355357358555

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    All of this again brings us back to the disaster that is FPTP. In a voting system like PR you would not get anything at the level of ERG or momentum because those MPs would have probably split years ago knowing they could still get elected but as we saw with UKIP any Tory defectors were ousted at the first election as UKIP candidates.

    These lobby groups within lobby groups within parties are a joke



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Johnson may not be long for No.10, with the Tories having lost the North Shropshire seat of Owen Patterson. To give context, Patterson won the seat with 62% of the vote and a 22 000 vote majority in 2019.


    Sunak is in California now as well and you have to wonder if that is to have as much distance from the stink from Johnson as you can get at the moment. But any leader taking over will have the same problems, unless they are from outside the cabinet. The current cabinet has stood by the messaging from No.10 about rules and parties, but this has had cut through to voters. Will anyone taking over be able to take control of the mess that they stood by for all this time and defended? Or will it just be someone else filling the seat and driving the ship towards disaster? Seeing Morduant speech up thread, my answer would be anyone taking over will just be continuing the same disaster policies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,442 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Johnson took over from TM, having served in her cabinet and voting for her deal, and not only did the voters wipe the slate clean, they gave the very same Tories that had presided over the mess of the previous 3 years, a whopping great majority.

    If Johnson does move on, it will be because the Tories are looking to wipe the slate clean and start anew, as if they hadn't been in power for the last 11 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    People gave "getting Brexit done" the whopping majority as much as it being about a clean slate. The next election won't be about Brexit in the same way and will probably involve the 4th Tory PM since Brown was voted out so it might take more than a clean slate next time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    She didn't deliver that very well. The whole thing came out sounding very contrived and it kinda seemed like she doesn't really believe a word of it.

    Utter shite.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 842 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 on Twitter: "+UPDATE+ Britain to accept the role of EU law & judges in Northern Ireland. https://t.co/amBpIfje6P" / Twitter

    A good day to release that news quietly I think.

    One of the comments on that thread sums it up.

    "The white flag of Brexit victory waved again"



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    (Short) article commenting on UK move to exempt Ireland from its Customs changes in Jan next year:

    It's interesting what the UK is doing here.

    Maybe I'm getting sour & full of paranoia wrt. actions of this UK govt. but to me looks like their trade policy towards Ireland is following the immigration/citizenship policies they have which post Brexit prevent Ireland ever joining Schengen, and any deeper successor aggreements between Schengen members (because Ireland doesn't wish to lose these "benefits"). It's effectively a roadblock on Ireland getting deeper into that aspect of EU integration, we will need opt outs etc. in future.

    So they are cutting us out of the EU with respect to trade and giving special treatment, maybe in a hope of creating similar barriers over time (on other aspects of our EU membership...we won't wish to disrupt the "special" relationship with the UK). 

    Maybe redirection of Irish trade to the continent has worried them badly. Frost has mentioned our trade shifting (i.e. East-West + vice versa) which he obviously sees as still "their" trade in a sense despite the dispute in the 20s, as a problem for the UK which must be addressed immediately, not just the NI protocol issues.

    They also lose some of their best leverage over the EU (which is mainly through their ability to make Ireland suffer badly) the more we disconnect our economy from them so they are trying to stop or at least slow that down by allowing our exporters a benefit. They might need that leverage in future. Overall it's not really a good thing I think (apart from the short term benefits).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    I think its more a realisation that the UK buys a substantial proportion of their food from IRL and introducing tariffs on that trade would put the final nail in the tory coffin, or al least Johnson's PM role.

    From an Irish perspective this is great news, IRL remains in the EU and there is less tension with NI with free trade in one direction. There are no wedges placed between IRL and the rest of the EU, and Irish exporters have an advantage over most every other country exporting to the UK. The UK will stretch the patience of the EU but that doesn't affect us in IRL.

    It will be interesting to see if peoples attitudes to Johnson change, he's had such bad press it has to affect him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yeah it is "good news" on the face of it. As you say it is a problem for the EU though. We may not always be a beneficiary of countries trying to divide the EU on trade like this for whatever reason (e.g. see trade sanctions China is trying to impose on Lithuania only at the moment).

    I don't think there are any tariffs involved here, but their food imports from this country would be made slower/more difficult by new Customs requirements on 1 Jan and of course the Irish exporters may then be further encouraged to shift away from the UK to avoid red tape/problems. The UK has to import alot of food from somewhere in the end.

    As said I may be overly cynical. There's alot of possible reasons for this like the UK Customs not being ready, or not wanting to disrupt/slow food imports from a major supplier country (...but then they also import large amounts of food from other EU members like all the veg. from Spain/Netherlands, so why is Ireland singled out?).



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think that the NI Protocol plays a part in this. If they implement full customs between NI and GB, then that reinforces the need for customs between GB and NI, which undermines the 'bin the paperwork' cry from Johnson.

    If we want to go Schengen, we need NI to be in Schengen - so that is out short of a united Ireland.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    does this mean we are effectively in the same boat as NI wrt trade to the UK and EU ?

    I assume WTO rules will put the kybosh on this.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,537 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It is described as the first post-Brexit deal negotiated from scratch and not "rolled over" from trade terms that the UK enjoyed while in the EU.

    Oz is a country that's a close ally and China is boycotting food imports so needs a new market. UK farmers are not impressed as they won't be seeing much of that 0.08% GDP growth by 2035 ( that 0.006% annual growth will offset the negative aspects of Brexit )



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,537 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Looks they are coming around to the acceptance stage ?

    Cambridge professor of EU law Catherine Barnard said the suggestions floating around Whitehall for a solution over the European court of justice had merit and would effectively mean swapping article 12 of the Northern Ireland protocol for articles 169 to 174 of the overall withdrawal agreement.

    So no, they still at the bargaining stage and wanting to EU to compromise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    Thats true, had to look and IRL is fourth largest country that the UK imports from, but we are not that important over all.

    It is a good question, why Ireland. Do they think by keeping IRL close they might see us leave the EU and keep ties with the UK, are they that deluded ! do they think their actions cause a smoke screen and division within the EU, 'divide and conquer' tactics, or do they feel giving way in NI, having a border in the Irish sea will be unforgiven at the next election. But either way if by then the economic performance in NI is far better than GB since brexit this yr, that will still be a big blow to the tory's, only a land border in IRL would prevent that, which doesn't explain the current course of action by this Govt. It will be interesting to see how this develops.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    They are doing it to Ireland because they don't have a solution to the corner they backed themselves into. This is essentially a climb down from the trigger art.50 BS



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    yes, but when they start imposing rules and tarrifs on other countries ( including EU ), wont we effectively be in the same position as NI, in that we have access to GB and EU ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    I sort of get that, but goods from NI can travel unimpeded from NI direct to GB so that doesn't upset the DUP. The UK has to implement those checks at all ports from the rest of the EU, and I presume that includes NI ports and Airports where NI is importing from the EU (excl IRL). So why exclude IRL from the import checks. Is it only because of NI unique position, imports from ILR to NI would be unchecked so singling out NI from the rest of the UK with added advantages. If so it seems the torys want to pull down a part of the UK that has the prospect to flourish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Sorry I meant nothing negative as in people don't need to worry about our trade to France or anything like that.

    I just see this as the UK secretly agreeing to the oven ready treaty they wrote and signed in the first place



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Why would they do this when they're not even inspecting goods coming into the country from the EU at present?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    My understanding is from January they start to phase in import checks from all EU countries bar IRL.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't really know. I don't see what difference it makes to the EU if they check incoming goods or not in relation to mainland Britain. NI is of course a different matter.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What would be the point. If you leave 1 door open the whole system is useless.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Your mistake is assuming the point is to actually control things rather than pretend they are in control in the same way as their new chemical regulation etc. (relies on companies reporting things in on their own).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    Maybe that's the point, they must know they're wholly unprepared and leaving a back door might suit them as it might provide a means for trade to continue. It just feels like everything is closing in on them, the tide has turned, which is a good thing. Not that I wish harm on the UK but a dose of reality is long overdue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Oh no I fully understand it's a sham. It's all just a crafty way of climbing down from the brinkmanship of a month ago



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I think it is hard to be certain of the reasons behind policies with this UK govt. I'm very suspicious of the motive of everything they do as regards their relations with Ireland or more particularly the EU. However (somewhat thankfully, given the first point) they are also not very competent, and (as others said) they can be very led by the polls & opinions of their supporters in decisions they make, so will sometimes turn on a dime.

    An example would be the complete about face for now as regards starting more trouble with the EU over the NI protocol. The leaders and the party seem to badly want it to happen but basically fear of the consequences (edit: I mean political result for them at home, not effects on relationships with the EU, Ireland or the US) is staying their hand.

    It's just impossible to really know what they are at half the time.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    trumpeting the deal? I get the impression Boris told his team to sign whatever the australians offered so he could plug the constant wave of bad news he's been getting.


    Judging how the australian agriculture reps responded compared to the british I dont think it'll stay good news for long



  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    I suspect it’s just too much hassle to implement anything within the CTA and NI is a hornets nest they’re realising is very very dangerous to shake.

    They always seem bit shocked that Brexit has actually meant Brexit and isn’t a bit of a lark and a parlour game and that they are taken at their word when they make threats and so on.

    They also grossly miscalculated the US and seemed to think that’s they’d have a friendly Trump administration. Instead they are likely seen as an extension of Trump like politics by the Democrats, who will be treating them as such.

    They also grossly overestimate their own importance in terms of trade with the US. They’re not owed a free lunch and when it comes to serious trade deals they really haven’t made a lot of friends.

    It’s also worth noting that the US-EU relationship is very much a long standing platform or post WWII American foreign policy in Europe. The Trump era was an aberration.

    Australia is currently run by a government that has a lot in common with the Tories. It’s the home of Murdock tabloid press and is the absolute outlier when it came to climate change. It’s very much on the wrong side of history at the moment wirh all of that and frankly didn’t come out very well at COP26.

    I think they’ve potentially walked themselves into trading issues over their environmental policies, even with the US and they’re highly dependent on China, yet are in a diplomatic confrontation with it all the time and the way they handled the submarine thing with France was lacking any kind of diplomatic finesse and probably did them a lot of damage with EU trade in the medium term.

    Overall, I wouldn’t really think Australia’s position is fantastic at the moment, and also it’s very likely the current political picture there will change this year with Labor likely to take the helm again, which could see U.K. Australian relations become a lot more distant.

    Economically, it’s not a great fit with the U.K. Britain is very far away, it doesn’t need Australian raw materials as it has no real use for them and the U.K. financial services and services sectors would likely undermine Australian counterparts by trying to compete for the same Asian business. I can’t see that going down well in Canberra or the Aussie financial districts.

    The U.K. also isn’t a stepping stone into Europe anymore, so is just one mediocre market and Australia is smaller again economically.

    What the U.K. is doing is a bit like someone having a massive row with all the local supermarkets and shopping centres and insisting that they’ll buy all their groceries online from Brazil or something. It’s all great in theory, but in practice it’s a mess.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 17,833 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The Trump point is a good one. They were convinced they could pivot away from the EU and into a trade / political alliance with their far right pal in the White House. The Irish-American Biden getting elected was little short of a disaster for them and has thrown everything up in the air.



Advertisement