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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I think the Express article is not Express turning away from Brexit but Express turning away from Johnson. Preparing the ground for a new shiny Tory replacement.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,574 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Climbdowns as expected. The trade figures don't lie. And we haven't heard a peep out of frost in a while.





  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I get the impression that Frost has climbed down in private on the ECJ, but doesn't want the Brexit supporting public to know. Note how this emerged in the midst of all the Johnson furore.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,551 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    More climbdown?



    "The UK and Jersey governments have issued further licences to French fishing boats to trawl British waters in an apparent attempt to ease cross-Channel tensions.

    The Brussels-imposed deadline of midnight on Friday for solving the post-Brexit fishing row passed without an agreement being announced.

    However, the British government has since confirmed that talks on Friday evening between the environment secretary, George Eustice, and Virginijus Sinkevičius, from the European Commission, after “several weeks of intensive technical discussions on licensing”, resulted in more small-boat licences being granted."


    Now whether this will be enough to satisfy the French will have to be seen, but the pattern just repeats itself. The UK acts all high and mighty, the EU wins the argument in the end. Rinse and repeat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,297 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's almost like Brexiters are more susceptible to lies



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,021 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The biggest common factor is likely to be age - older people are more likely to have voted for Brexit, and of course they are also dramatically more likely to die of Covid.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,784 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Looks like Patel has changed the rules and is now looking for the 2.3 million EU citizens living in the UK to have to reapply for settled status (paywalled)...

    Originally the UK agreed with the EU that its citizens could become settled if they lived in the Uk for five years continuously - they would have a pre-established status. Now those EU citizens will need to reapply for settlement status at the end of the five-year period for which they got a right to stay. 



  • Posts: 17,381 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 26,021 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    This is unfair. Older people's higher death rates from Covid are not due to ignorance. They are due to being old.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    AFAIK that was always the case for those who got pre-settlement, IIRC it was the right to remain until you qualified for settled status rather than automatic granting of it.

    However, not all those that applied for EUSS (especially through agencies) were given the correct status so some people probably have the right to remain but were only awarded the temporary extension.


    And there's 348,100 people still waiting to get a decision on settlement (5%)

    Decisions :

    Settled 52% (3,103,900) EUSS

    Pre-settled 41% (2,485,100) - This will include people who should have Settled status.

    Refused 3% (194,400)

    Withdrawn or Void 2% (108,900)

    Invalid 2% (99,400)


    As an example of how the system is run nearly 90% of appeals are successful compared to other HO reviews of typically 3.4%


    https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/immigration/problems-with-your-settled-status-decision/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,574 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Confirmed what was always assumed..... UK rolling back on more items that they are supposed to be well advanced on





  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Frost seems to believe there are negotiations about the NIP ongoing.

    There are no negotiations.

    There are technical implementation talks.

    It looks like the UK regime will simply ignore implementing the protocol and keep "negotiating".

    I think the French and the Germans will lose patience very soon if this is going to carry on like this.

    The EU legal action prepared earlier this year as a reaction to the UK not implementing parts of the protocol in timely manner will be revived pronto...



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    They cannot admit Brexit is an abject failure and that they should never have left the Single Market (as the UK was in no way ready or prepared to do so).

    We're effectively watching a western democracy being hijacked by a rogue regime and a rogue set of voters (anyone who votes Conservative or who voted Leave).



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,021 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    But the higher death rates in areas of the UK with high rates of elderly residents are not due to elderly residents being unvaccinated - vaccination rates in the UK are high, especially among the elderly. They are due to the elderly being old.

    I think you'll find the pattern is replicated in other countries - districts that have a higher proportion of elderly residents also have a higher Covid death rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,021 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It's worth pointing out that the EU doesn't care about, and certainly doesn't object to, this particular delay. The UK's inability to operate customs controls on goods imported into the UK is a problem for the UK. It's a benefit for countries that export to the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,906 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    I remember figures of 50k Customs officers being required Pre-Brexit to deal with the Post-Brexit bureaucracy and forms.

    As far as I can see there have been no additional recruitment campaigns for this small army of people so presumably until the positions are filled and there are people on the ground that are able to carry out the required checks then the can will continue to be kicked down the road.

    At this stage the smugglers paradise must be extremely attractive to all kinds of criminal as the likelihood of being caught is minimal in the extreme and profits must be immense. So much for taking back control...



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The decision to withdraw from the Single Market after 25 years of core membership for purely political / ideological reasons is a mind boggling one. One explanation is that the regime itself didn't even remotely understand what the Single Market is and how it operates - the UK civil service probably does, but has been overruled at all points by the loons (including Johnson) giving out the orders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,906 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    The UK as a whole (bar some of the CS that were involved in Europe ) has very little understanding of the EU and its systems. That in itself is the crux of the issue, for many years anything bad was simply blamed on "the EU".

    Amongst the wider populace that consume the vitriolic RW press the idea that EU was a giant monster that fed on its children took hold and that is what led to Brexit.

    Look at the Cornwall example, despite being massively supported by the EU it voted to leave, and has since found itself in a financial hole due to Tory mendacity.

    Swindon , Home of the Honda factory again voted to leave despite being an obvious casualty post SM exit.

    It reminds me somewhat of the Black Knight scene from Monty Python. The UK obviously playing the role of the Black Knight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    One key takeaway from this is that the Brexit leadership are not very intelligent people. A Thatcher or Major or Blair would instinctively understand how important the Single Market is and that leaving it would be a disastrous move. I get the impression the Brexit godfathers, despite all their gusto and bravado, are not very bright and are a really poor calibre of politician. Most of them wouldn't have even got into a Cabinet 20 or 30 years ago.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,061 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't think that intelligence is the correct prism through which to view this. I reckon that the Brexiters know exactly what they're at. The mistake is to think that their interests are synonymous with those of the country as a while. The likes of Rees-Mogg waste no time in transferring their financial interests to Dublin while Crispin Odey has made a fortune. The problem is that Brexit was always about their self interest and nothing else.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I would still argue they are a very poor calibre of politician. The likes of Johnson, Raab, Patel, Hancock, Williamson, Truss etc probably wouldn't have even gotten into a Tory Cabinet thirty years ago - we're talking about utter mediocrities and people who are not especially bright or gifted.

    The genuine talents like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart were hounded out of the party for being anti-Brexit.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,061 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Their being poor politicians is inherent in their willingness to put greed and opportunism before country. You are correct in that the party has eschewed talent in favour of loyalty. It looks more like a feudal court than anything else with various individuals jostling for Johnson's favour while the outcasts plot against him.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    Prior to the brexit referendum, euroscepticism in the major parties was the preserve of the "loser/failure/2nd rate/mediocre" politicians.

    Brexit filtered for political mediocrity.

    Following the brexit victory, only these mediocrities could be selected from to represent "the will of the people".



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,784 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The Food & Drink Federation have published more bad news for GB exports...

    Without wanting to dump a load of tweets in here (click on the above for more info) but since 2019 trade with Germany is down 44.5%, Italy down 43.3%, Spain down 50.6% and Irl down more than 25% (by nearly £0.75bn)

    Global sales of whiskey and salmon and soft drinks are up but all other major products are down. Exports to non-EU markets (China, Taiwan...) is up but I'm not sure if these were much to statrt with.

    Imports also appear to be down: from NL down by 19%, Irl down by 20.1% and Ger by 33.1%



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,784 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I also spotted this video of Penny Mordaunt who is over in the States trying to drum up trade. Interesting choice of descriptions and language - will the Americans fall for it? I don't think so!




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    The fact that she even has to say that it isn't an act of self harm tells you that they know that that is how everyone is viewing it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,938 ✭✭✭Bigus



    If you’re a van driver or driving a commercial vehicle with a trailer from the uk doing drops to the EU a you’re in for a rude awakening,

    £1100 to operate now for uk drivers in the EU.

    I’ve heard rather expression death by 1000 cuts , but the EU is really biting Brexiteers hard.


    Also I saw two Van life female campers explaining really well and intelligently, how Europe differs from EU and ultimately Schengen area.

    they explained how the 180 / 90 day rule works and how UK people could use the Schengen area to legally circumvent not having to return to the actual UK auto stay legal in Europe and not fall foul of EU rules if you wanted to stay away from the UK for more than a year.

    this was about 3 months ago.

    In fairness they weren’t being , smart, arrogant or smug about this but were demonstrating a genuine way to stay in Europe post Brexit for more than 3 months by using non Schengen areas and Turkey etc.

    However their plan was to stay in Slovenia and Croatia, but now, in December, Slovenia and Croatia are snowed under so instead of ideally being down around the warm med ,Brexit has forced them to be frozen out , and they are on their way home to UK now, and going to spend post Christmas in Scotland .

    Also apart from the cold the native winter time (as against summer holiday makers)reaction to the now mandatory UK and GB sticker has caused them untold hostility from the normally friendly locals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,264 ✭✭✭✭kowloon




  • Registered Users Posts: 643 ✭✭✭farmerval


    After the first IRAQ war reading a book about how the US got involved there, one of the fascinating things was a lot of the supporting cast, including the guy that had first used the term shock and awe, were brought into the inner circle specifically because of their views. Several were people that in the states contributed to right wing websites and publications. The controlling element in the Republican party were itching for an opportunity to demonstrate how awesome the US Military were.

    People who parroted that line were promoted into policy decision making areas. I think the same happened with the Tories. Having a solid block of MP's that defined themselves only as opposed to Europe, any aspiring MP seemed to need to bow o the ERG grouping if they wanted to progress their careers. Theresa May was a good example. I wonder if she held such venomous attitudes to immigrants or was it simply the best way of progressing to the top.

    Boris is in an impossible position now, he has emboldened a rump of the party that is now almost drunk on it's own power. They have huge power with little responsibility, I believe they don't want to be ministers, I think they feel their in a perfect position.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,906 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    Not alone little responsibility, they are also actively starting to circumvent the law by trying to reduce the power of the courts to rein in their excesses.

    The UK is now heading towards a state where the parliament is answerable to no-one not even the highest courts in the land.

    Its a dangerous situation for any country to find itself in.



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