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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,634 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    That your posting style is intentionally and maliciously obtuse to try and bait others into replying to your bad faith arguments



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    The poster asked me to name 5 things that have improved for the UK since Brexit.As I've repeated constantly in this thread had I lived in the UK at the time of the referendum and had the chance to vote I would have Remained.

    However, I don't follow the groupthink narrative that this has instantly doomed a very powerful economy like the UK's to a financial Armageddon. And I don't seize on every bit of negative financial news from the UK as proof the people who voted for Leave were witless fools.

    Brexit may affect the economy badly but it may not. My view is that it is simply too early to tell. We're only in the 10th month since Brexit officially happened and most of that time the UK, like the rest of the world, has been battling a cataclysmic economic and social Coronavirus pandemic made worse this year by the Delta variant.

    Me being unwilling to provide a list of things to another poster is neither maliciously obtuse or baiting. It's merely that I believe it's too early to tell.

    I try to provide critical evidence wherever I can in my posts - if you disagree with it why not provide alternative facts rather than attacking the poster ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,957 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But wasn't Brexit sold by Vote Leave and the right wing press as providing immediate and obvious benefits to all Leave voters?

    Daniel Hannan's Brexit prediction article spoke of rapid changes to the British economy and society, almost from the moment the UK leaves - financial services booming, fall in fuel prices, influx of high skilled workers from the EU, increased productivity, increased household incomes, UK universities flourishing, multiple new free trade deals. This wasn't long term, but the immediate 'Brexit benefits' that the UK would see the moment it quits the union.

    Brexit UK would be seen as the gold standard for 'sovereign and independent' nations, the one that everyone wants to invest in, move to and do business with.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    The EU appears to have proposed very significant changes to the protocol which were unthinkable until recently.I hope the UK negotiate in good faith and the potential impasse over ECJ jurisdiction doesn't scupper things. Perhaps an independent regulatory entity to oversee any disputes could be the answer.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "Brexit may affect the economy badly but it may not. My view is that it is simply too early to tell"

    Nonsense you have your mind well made up on the glories of Brexit. All your posts and regurgitations of Tory propaganda show you to be fully wrapped up in the "groupthink"of the Brexiters.

    You avoid any topic that might put a dent in your glorious Brexit and just throw out the same tired nonsense about how it's supposedly as bad here as in the UK



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    SNIP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,570 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    There's no independent anything coming. The Tories will drag out discussions for as long as they can. Dancing around a response. They need this figmented argument to continue in the news cycle, it's to take the noise of the daily death rates away . On to whatever the next big news they can use to deflect. The Tories only plan is to stay in power that's it nothing more . Not sorting the countries problems . They quite literally could not care . Not a bit.


    I at this point find it hilarious that there are posters on here defending this all as some sort of master plan. It's not, none of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    Either brexit is going to have significant negative effects on the British economy or 3000 years of economics andtens of thousands of economists & researchers are wrong. My money is on economics.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Padraig178 banned for now. Please do not speculate about banned posters. Thanks.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,634 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    I dont see why they would suddenly start negotiating in good faith considering their past behaviour not to mention cummings assertions that they were always going to tear up the protocol the second after they signed it.

    An independent entity would make sense but what odds would you be willing to give me that the exact same arguments that are applied towards the EU having a say over NI trade would be leveled against said entity in pretty short order and we would see the same cycle of demands repeat themselves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Again, nobody is arguing that Brexit is sending the British economy back to the stone age ('doomed'). That's a complete straw man. The group think, much like the group think around gravity and evolution, is that excising your economy from all the markets around you - having spent 40 years making connections with them - is bad for your economy and will set you back substantially. And the evidence that this is true is there in abundance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What Brexit has mostly shown so far is that the experts that were mocked and vilified to the point of being called traitors might have been right and there is a reason why people who study subjects in depth for years are known as the experts in these matters



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming



    Speaking as someone who was present throughout the - as John Major put it - "squalid" Brexit campaign and who walked into a voting booth regards the matter, the only Leave campaigner to say anything about Brexit not delivering instant nirvana/gratification to the masses was Rees Moggs with a belated off-the-cuff comment about the country needing to wait maybe fifty years "or so" to see any _possible_ benefit from Brexit. The rest of it was all instant gratification promises.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The worst promise of all was Farage and his "Norway style" proposal which would have let to a very soft and event free Brexit. Obviously though he was lying and turned his back on that for a hard Brexit almost immediately



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    There seemed to be a genuine belief in some circles that Brexit would be the thin end of the wedge, finally hastening the breakup of the EU salivated over / fantasised about for years among the Eurosceptic in the UK. Certainly the latest after the 2008 crash failed to destroy the Euro. Dan Hannans famously idiotic think piece speculated on this time after the referendum - 5 years - with the EU broken up after a smattering of counties left (naturally keen to follow British Exceptionalism into the great new lands beyond)



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    I believe Rees-Mogg's comments were well after the vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,276 ✭✭✭dublin49


    when you listen to Frost and the DUP they have a point,Brexit has been shown to have absolutely no economic upside so the only gain they can focus on is regaining their sovereignty.What the protocol signals is that NI can have a vastly inferior version of EU membership if they accept some EU jurisdiction,not a good look for the sponsors of the brexit fiasco,They would prefer to have NI in the same mess as England ,Scotland & Wales and take their chances with a border in Ireland,Not my view but understandable from their POV.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,957 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Indeed, I watched all the referendum debates and it was all "Once free of the EU, we will be able to......" from the Brexiteers (sign trade deals, halt EU immigration, repeal EU laws etc).

    There was absolutely no talk about this being ten or twenty years down the line - it was all going to happen the instant the UK left the EU and numerous wonderful things were going to happen from that moment onward.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The DUP had Theresa May over a barrel. They have themselves and only themselves to blame for this fiasco. They could have scored serious concessions from London, secured full alignment for agricultural exports (ie, SM/CU membership in all but name) and come out as heroes for their base. Instead, they took a grubby bung, refused to honor the deal and traded away NI's place in the UK for the political equivalent of a cardboard submarine.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,957 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    They were way too close to the extreme Brexiteers and not to the 'moderates' in the Conservative party. There are photos of Paisley Jr and Wilson with the likes of Farage, Banks, Kate Hoey etc during this period - they hitched themselves in with the ERG crowd and associates. Even at the moment, Arlene Foster is a guest presenter on GB News and writing anti-EU articles for the Daily Express.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    A fair few on here were salivating over the idea that Brexit would bring about Irexit which is why they are on here now desperately crying for the end of the NIP and telling us the HGV problem is worldwide



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Previous Unionist politicians knew and understood their place in Westminster, IE that both they and Northern Ireland were at best, distractions and at worst, nuisances to London. Carson and Craig knew this full well. It's a sign of how far political standards have fallen IMO.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Back in the days of Carson and Craig the last thing they wanted was Westminster paying any attention to the barely democratic gerrymandered state that the UUP ruled.

    The current crop would have agreed to Brexit no matter the cost to look like good Englanders



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Perhaps an independent regulatory entity to oversee any disputes could be the answer.

    I think that may prove impossible for the EU to accept in ways that weakening/changing Customs processes protecting the Single market for the sake of NI/Ireland are not.

    It is at base (to over use the word) a "sovereignty" thing. These are a subset of EU rules and laws still applying in NI despite Brexit and being administered by UK in order to let the NI-Irish trade & movement of people etc. around the NI-EU border remain "as-is" without normal customs infrastructure and checks ever impinging on them. I don't think the EU will allow either the UK or some 3rd party to make final judgements on these parts of its own rule book. You'd have the rules potentially impacting all 27 member states (given the goods can circulate in Ireland and then the rest of the EU) being decided upon by some external body for sake of NI. It is just not going to happen as far as I can see (?) so something has to give.

    Yes, it is the UK here compromising on the totality/completeness of Brexit by allowing these "EU/foreigner rules" to continue existing on a bit of its own territory which Frost now appears to find intolerable but as we all know, NI has been and is a somewhat contested space and politically unstable (hence idea of some special arrangement instead of just actualising/crystallising practical effects of a new external EU-UK border where they are "supposed" to be).

    IMO, If the UK govt. does push this point about eliminating EU oversight all the way to the end (which I think will lead to a serious breakdown of EU-UK relations) they are setting down a marker that the special cases for NI are irrelevant in face of Brexit and reestablishing their geopolitical interests in NI again as an integral part of the UK Union where no foreign influences (like NI protocol) can be permitted to linger. The Unionists will be delighted with that anyway (!) even if it potentially craters the NI economy unless they can get a big bung of money from London to help out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    What I find interesting is that I think there is a reasonable chance (maybe 40%?) that the UK will go trade war here (and eventually they will lose any trade war) yet sterling doesn't seem to price any of this in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,012 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Dan Hannan - mentioned earlier - was making predictions in 2016 for 2025, so he still has time to be correct, possibly...ah bless, I suppose they could not have anticipated Covid.

    It’s 24 June, 2025, and Britain is marking its annual Independence Day celebration. As the fireworks stream through the summer sky, still not quite dark, we wonder why it took us so long to leave. The years that followed the 2016 referendum didn’t just reinvigorate our economy, our democracy and our liberty. They improved relations with our neighbours.

    The United Kingdom is now the region’s foremost knowledge-based economy. We lead the world in biotech, law, education, the audio-visual sector, financial services and software. New industries, from 3D printing to driverless cars, have sprung up around the country. Older industries, too, have revived as energy prices have fallen back to global levels: steel, cement, paper, plastics and ceramics producers have become competitive again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I don't know, don't follow what the currencies are doing but maybe it is hard for people to accept things are getting that bad (?) and surely something must come along to reestablish sanity/normality or else that all of this is just tactics on the UK part and it will be resolved.

    I think the UK can still lose a trade dispute with the EU (in sense of its economy being badly damaged, and criticism for the situation being heaped on them by US) while not backing down here. I am not in the UK but I get impression the govt. may be able to get enough people to rally round the flag against the external enemies "bullying the UK" and accept hardships if the worst comes to the worst.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,288 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Shocking that an adult could write such wnk material. We might all dream as to what a perfect version of our country might be but to actually scribble it out for public consumption is crazy



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,957 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It does give an indication of just how bonkers the whole British Eurosceptic movement was. Hannan was no mere bit part player, but instead set up both the ERG and Vote Leave. That a movement with such obvious cranks and fantasists at the helm could win a referendum takes some believing. These guys would be your equivalent of the anti-vaxxers and anti-lockdown brigade in Ireland (Gemma, J. Waters etc).



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