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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 16 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Sept 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal, mainly because nights will continue very mild, daytime readings not too far from mid-September averages.

    -- Rainfall will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal as the disturbances begin to acquire more moisture in coming days, notably Friday. After Monday several dry days can be expected.

    -- Sunshine will be held down to around 50 per cent of normal values, possibly 75 per cent in a few spots. There will be frequent fog and mist.

    -- Wind speeds will gradually increase back into a more typical autumnal range.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy in the eastern and central two-thirds, and overcast in the west where rain and strong south to southwest winds are likely to arrive during the late afternoon and evening. Highs 18-21 C.

    TONIGHT rain will continue to make gradual progress further east, 10 to 15 mm can be expected by morning, with lows around 11 or 12 C.

    FRIDAY will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers with total rainfalls from late Thursday to early Saturday about 30-40 mm in some central counties, 20-30 mm more widespread. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C. This rain will clear out of parts of Munster and Connacht by late morning or mid-day to allow some brighter spells there with isolated showers forming again.

    SATURDAY there will still be one or two showers around but a gradual clearing trend for a time, followed by more persistent showers for part of the overnight period into Sunday morning. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mm are expected on this occasion.

    SUNDAY will have the morning showers left over from the overnight frontal passage, then variable cloud and a few more showers likely, lows around 10 C and highs around 16 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be a quiet spell under a ridge of high pressure, and since there could be widespread low cloud or fog each night, sunshine will only break through briefly in many places, around mid-day and into the afternoon hours. Highs 17 to 20 C, and overnight lows quite variable as any prolonged clear spells could allow a drop to the 4 to 7 C range but cloud would hold readings closer to 10 C.

    Eventually this ridge will break down and an interval of rather unsettled and sometimes quite windy weather will arrive, possibly including tropical remnants. Temperatures may briefly drop several degrees below average in that spell as a fast westerly flow will be allowing some insertions of colder air sourced from Greenland to enter the mix, but other days in the windy and variable period will be milder.

    My local weather was partly cloudy to sunny, with strong northwest winds at times especially by late afternoon, and turning chilly as we get the outer edges of a fall outbreak of arctic air hitting the prairie provinces. The high was only around 15 C and it had fallen below 10 C by 9 p.m., skies were clear enough to get occasional views of the Moon, which is approaching conjunctions with Saturn (tonight) and Jupiter (Friday night); in both cases the moon will be seen lower down in the southern sky below these planets. It will be a waxing gibbous moon of about two-thirds illumination.

    The two tropical storm candidates have not reached the numbering stage and the one off west Africa has been considerably downgraded for its future to the point where it could avoid getting a number or name altogether, the weak energy from it ends up near Cuba and Florida in about a week. The other system east of Florida looks a bit more robust and will probably become a tropical storm within a day or two off the Carolina coast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 17 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 September --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal but with a gradual fall to slightly below normal at end of the week.

    -- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25% below normal in parts of the east.

    -- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal. Some dense fog can be expected several nights and mornings (Mon-Wed).

    -- Wind speeds will gradually pick up late in the interval but will be either light or moderate until then.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through south-central counties into central Leinster. Further rainfalls of 10-15 mm are likely. Highs 16 to 18 C. Some clearing by afternoon in parts of the west, but still with isolated showers around.

    TONIGHT will have a few light showers but also some clear intervals and lows 7 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, perhaps a bit more frequent in south central counties by afternoon and evening. About 2-5 mm rain is expected. Highs 14 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy but becoming overcast from the west by late in the day as a weak warm front approaches, with dry weather most of the day, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Some drizzle or light rain may develop in the west overnight.

    MONDAY will have a rather dull and misty start, brightening up gradually by afternoon. Any light rain or drizzle in the north should clear out by the afternoon. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    TUESDAY could have some persistent dense fog in the morning, slowly brightening to hazy sunny intervals in some parts of the east, south and central counties. Lows near 6 C and highs near 18 C. Strong southwest winds will develop and rain will arrive by the overnight hours.

    WEDNESDAY will be windy with showers and temperatures steady around 14 to 16 C.

    Several days of colder autumnal feeling weather will follow, highs closer to 13 C and winds westerly 50-70 km/hr at times, with passing showers, some of hail. It will however warm up again towards the end of the weekend of 25th-26th.

    My local weather on Thursday was sunny and cool with highs near 14 C after a slight ground frost reported around the area, and it feels cold enough under clear skies at present to have another frost but then cloud followed by rain for most of late Friday and Saturday here. ... the two weak tropical candidates have not impressed the judges yet, and remain un-recognized. The east coast low will probably have a 2 day spell as a tropical storm off Cape Cod, and the tropical Atlantic wave looks like it wants to stay quite weak for days, but eventually could become a tropical storm also near Bermuda, where it could circle around trapped below a ridge.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 18 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 September --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will be around 50% of the average for the first four days, and most of that happens today. However, a split in guidance causes uncertainty about how much more will fall from mid-week to next Friday, the weighted average says that the outcome for the entire week will also be 50% of normal, but it could be lower if no rain does fall then.

    -- Sunshine will be around 75% of normal values, the main factor working against a higher outcome is low cloud and fog likely on several mornings.

    -- Wind speeds will slowly increase after mid-week but will be quite slack until then.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out rather sunny in many parts, with an increase in cloud across the western counties followed by outbreaks of showers spreading gradually into central counties by afternoon and into the east and north later. Some heavier downpours may occur especially in south central counties where 10-15 mm is possible, about 3-7 mm seems a more general average. Highs 16 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will bring partial clearing and a reduction in the showers to more isolated brief sprinkles, lows 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, and occasional outbreaks of light rain mostly in the northwest into Ulster as a weak warm front moves through. Highs 15 to 17 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be strongly influenced by strong high pressure and warm air aloft creating an inversion. This may lead to extensive fog and low cloud both mornings starting from the overnight hours, but any place that can manage to clear up could warm into the low 20s, as I suspect many places won't clear very readily 17 to 19 C seems more likely for many both days. Morning lows are also going to be subject to variations depending on clear skies or low cloud, lows could fall into the 5 to 8 C range inland but will likely be held near 10 C in most locations. These will be almost calm days too.

    WEDNESDAY a southwest breeze will develop, with a frontal band trying to push into Ireland but guidance by then splits into two camps where either the push is weak and few places see any rain, to a more general wind and rain outbreak, and this trend repeats several times over the following days, so at this point, it's a wait and see situation where the fair weather early in the week could persist for a while, or could be replaced by more unsettled conditions. The chances of the latter would certainly be greater in the west and north. Temperatures would likely remain in a similar range with highs 15 to 18 C.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast with occasional light rain and chilly, the high barely reaching 13 C. Much heavier rain fell in coastal areas and we've had unusually early mountain pass snowfalls affecting regional travel on the highways (normally this would wait for October). The disturbance off Cape Cod has been given the name Tropical Storm Odette -- many observers feel like it's a "stats padder" that is hardly tropical and it will soon become extratropical although stronger when it does, then it will meander around southeast of Newfoundland. This contributes to the forecast uncertainty to some extent. The tropical wave now in the central Atlantic shows signs of weak development near the northern part of the island chain in a couple of days, but may not amount to much.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 19 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will be around 10 to 25% of the average for the first four days, and most of that happens today. The split in the guidance may continue but the drier outlook seems more plausible to me, so I would estimate at most 50% of normal values by next weekend. It could be closer to 75% in parts of the north and west.

    -- Sunshine will be around 75% of normal values, the main factor working against a higher outcome is low cloud and fog likely on several mornings.

    -- Wind speeds will slowly increase after mid-week but will be rather slack until then.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, and occasional outbreaks of light rain mostly in the northwest into Ulster as a weak warm front moves through. Rainfall amounts generally 1-3 mm in the north, perhaps less in some parts of the south and east. Highs 15 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will see some clearing but also widespread low cloud and eventually mist or fog, which might be quite prevalent by morning, lows will depend on the amount of clearing, could drop to 4-7 C where skies clear for any length of time, otherwise 7 to 10 C more likely.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be strongly influenced by strong high pressure and warm air aloft creating an inversion. This may lead to extensive fog and low cloud both mornings starting from the overnight hours, but any place that can manage to clear up could warm into the low 20s, as I suspect many places won't clear very readily 17 to 19 C seems more likely for many both days. Morning lows are also going to be subject to variations depending on clear skies or low cloud, lows could fall into the 5 to 8 C range inland but will likely be held near 10 C in most locations. These will be almost calm days too.

    WEDNESDAY this calm spell will slowly yield to stronger southwest breezes setting in across the north early in the day and spreading further south later. Some sporadic outbreaks of rain are likely with a weak and drying frontal system. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

    THURSDAY to about SUNDAY 26th will be similar with moderate to strong southwest winds at times, a few intervals of showery rains, but also fairly dry overall especially in the south, with near average temperatures (highs 14 to 17 C). After the weekend, a stormier pattern is indicated and there could be strong winds and heavy rainfalls in some areas, particularly the west and north.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with some light rain at times and chilly, highs only around 13 C. Tropical storm Odette has come and gone, but a fairly active low remains from that, and part of it will head for Iceland mid-week while another part will drift around in a long counter-clockwise loop west of the Azores. That could re-acquire tropical characteristics but I am not sure if the NHC would consider it Odette part two or give it a new name as the storm will soon split into two parts. Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic disturbance has finally made it to the numbered stage and seems unlikely to do very much, if it gets a name (35 knot winds would be required) then it will be Peter (unless something else happens with another wave following it, the next name in the series is Rose).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 20 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Sep 2021

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal in the south, to perhaps 50-75 per cent in the north.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds will be very light at first, then will slowly increase to moderate southwest to west at times.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY will start out rather misty or even foggy in a few spots, with some glimpses of sunshine later, if any locations manage a few hours of sunshine they could warm up to 20 C or a bit higher, but under mostly cloudy skies 18 or 19 C more likely for highs.

    TONIGHT will see a return to mist and fog, possibly rather extensive in the inland south and central counties. Lows 7 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY will see a very gradual end to morning fog or mist, winds staying rather light in the south, but picking up gradually to moderate southwesterly in the north, highs 17 to 19 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heavier in Connacht and Ulster (5-10 mm) than Munster or Leinster, except for some counties further north. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr will mark a change in the recent weather for most places. Lows around 10 to 12 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, moderate westerly winds and lows near 10 C, highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy with some showers in the north mainly, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

    The regime will be turning slightly more unsettled through the weekend of the 25th-26th and it could be quite windy by Monday 27th or Tuesday 28th, with some outbreaks of heavy rain in the west and north.

    My local weather on Sunday was overcast with occasional light rain, and the high only around 12 C. We are expecting some improvements this week from this cool, wet pattern of the past few days. In the tropical realm, Peter and now Rose are both rather weak tropical storms with no indications of anything stronger to come from them, than around sustained winds of 40 to 50 knots. Peter will be brushing past Puerto Rico and if that system did have any future bursts of energy not yet indicated, they would be around the Bahamas and Florida. Rose looks like it wants to move into the central Atlantic and die out west of the Azores.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 21 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 September --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal values, turning cooler after Sunday 26th.

    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the south, to perhaps 50-75 per cent in the north.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds will be very light at first, then will slowly increase to moderate southwest to west at times.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY will see a very gradual end to morning fog or mist, winds staying rather light in the south, but picking up gradually to moderate southwesterly in the north, where a bit of drizzle or light rain could develop later, highs 17 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT will be breezy and quite mild with occasional rain in the north and west, lows near 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heavier in Connacht and Ulster (5-8 mm) than Munster or Leinster, except for some counties further north. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr will mark a change in the recent weather for most places, and highs 15 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, moderate westerly winds and lows near 10 C, highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with breaks in the cloud only likely in the south, and breezy with some showers turning to a steady rain in the north mainly at first, spreading further south later on, with 5 to 15 mm potential, lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

    The weekend will continue unsettled with temperatures slightly above average (16 to 18 C) and occasional rain both days, then it will turn a few degrees colder for Monday 27th and remain in the 13 to 16 C range most of the last week of the month, with a few showers but also sunny intervals in a west to northwest wind of about 30 to 50 km/hr.

    My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing light showers, clearing towards evening, and rather cool (15 C). The tropical situation remains unchanged from the previous report, Peter and Rose continue to limp along as rather weak tropical storms. There is some sign of development now from yet another wave coming out of west Africa and models do show some signs of a hurricane forming from either that or some other similar impulse in about a week or so, after Peter and Rose have both died off.

    If you're interested in the Ryder Cup golf forecast, it looks reasonably good for the three days (Friday to Sunday), partly cloudy skies and near average temperatures with any showers brief and relatively light, winds no stronger than about 15-20 mph and those generally from west to northwest. Temperatures will be around 18 C daytime hours.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 22 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 September 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal; to about Sunday, the average will be near 2-3 deg above normal and then it will reverse to 2-4 deg below late in the interval.

    -- Rainfalls will average about 75 per cent of normal eventually, much of this rain is expected from Sunday to Tuesday.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

    -- Winds will soon pick up to moderate southwesterly, and will be in that range most of the week with a few stronger gusts.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become partly cloudy across the south and rather warm, highs 18 to 20 C. Overcast with occasional light rain by afternoon and evening further north, about 3-5 mm expected. Highs 15 to 17 C. Moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    TONIGHT will see the rain advancing somewhat further south while fragmenting to showers, only about 1-2 mm expected. Lows 11 to 14 C.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional showers, in gusty southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with moderate southwest winds and isolated showers both days, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY will become overcast and rather windy with intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm possible, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain and local hail possible, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

    The rest of next week will continue somewhat less unsettled for a time, then heavy rain and strong winds may appear around Friday 1st of October. Temperatures will remain in the 13 to 16 C range.

    My local weather was sunny and pleasant on Tuesday with a high near 18 C, The two tropical storms (Peter and Rose) have both weakened to just depressions now, and a new storm is about to form in the tropical Atlantic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 23 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Sep 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal, after a warm first half of the weekly interval, and a cooler second half.

    -- Rainfalls will average about 25 per cent above normal in the west, to 25 per cent below normal in the east, after a series of locally heavy frontal waves hit from Sunday to mid-week. It will be essentially dry in the south until they arrive.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal with a lot of cloud in both the warmer air and the cooler air masses when they arrive.

    -- Winds will be moderate southwesterly until Sunday, briefly stronger westerly then back to southwesterly at more moderate pace.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional showers, in gusty southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast and very mild with lows 12 to 14 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with moderate southwest winds and isolated showers both days, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C (locally closer to 20 C near east and south coasts).

    SUNDAY will become overcast and rather windy (southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr) with intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm possible, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C. There could be some local thunderstorms with hail during the cold frontal passage mid-day.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain and local hail possible, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C. A spell of heavier rain is likely on Tuesday as a frontal system develops in the cooler flow and moves quickly through the north and central regions, rainfalls could be quite heavy in Atlantic counties.

    The rest of next week may warm up again slightly to around 15-16 C as the Atlantic resumes a more southwesterly delivery, and eventually there could be some stronger winds and briefly heavy rainfalls.

    In the tropics, Peter and Rose seem to be just about done with their weak efforts, but Sam (about to be named, still T.D. 18) may prove to be a more formidable storm reaching hurricane proportions near the Windward or Leeward Islands, then making a grand tour of the Atlantic, and it's worth noting that the guidance shows its remnants quite close to Ulster in about two weeks, something to track anyway (too early to be at all concerned about this).

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny with thick layers of high cloud at times, but rather warm near 21 C.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 24 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Sep 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average slightly above normal, although Monday and Tuesday look set to bring a brief change to 2-4 deg below after a few more days of the current 3-5 deg above trend. Next Wednesday and Thursday are likely to see a slight rise back to normal or a bit above.

    -- Rainfalls will likely total as much as 25 per cent above normal in some parts, most likely west and north, but with some locally heavy showers in two significant bands on Sunday and Tuesday, the pattern could be a bit unorganized.

    -- Sunshine will be near 50 per cent of normal at best.

    -- Winds will continue to pick up and could include a few strong gusts both Sunday and Tuesday as fronts pass. Otherwise mainly moderate winds often from a southwesterly direction.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy in the south and east, overcast further north, and quite warm for late September with highs 17 to 22 C. There could be a few isolated showers especially in coastal Connacht. Rather breezy in the west and north, south-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

    TONIGHT will be very mild with spotty light rain in the west and north mainly, lows 13 to 16 C.

    SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered light showers, and moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 20 C.

    SUNDAY will produce some squally showers as winds veer from southerly to westerly, some strong gusts and thundery showers could develop with hail, 5 to 15 mm rainfalls, but some clearing by afternoon and not as windy once into the cooler air. Temperatures steady 15 to 17 C until the front passes then 10 to 13 C.

    MONDAY will be somewhat cooler with passing showers including a few with hail and thunder. Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

    TUESDAY will be windy with squally showers, winds rising to around southwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, veering westerly, and rainfalls 10-20 mm. Temperatures steady around 15-17 C falling off somewhat later in the day.

    WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, lows near 7 C and highs pushing back up towards 15-17 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with occasional rain, highs 16 to 19 C.

    The first few days of October now appear likely to remain rather mild and unsettled in a southwesterly flow. The big uncertainty may be the future role of Sam which seems very likely to become a major hurricane east of the Caribbean then tracking close to Bermuda in about a week, missing Newfoundland to the south and on latest guidance, interacting with a frontal system south of Iceland and west of Ireland, apparently dying out there but being replaced by quite a strong low in the westerlies which can just be a signal for model uncertainty as that energy could actually be Sam itself moving along, and hitting Ireland around two weeks from today. The situation is too far ahead and uncertain to do much more than comment on what the models are showing us now, it could change a lot within a week but don't be all that surprised to read "Sam could pulverize Cornwall" or similar accounts long before anyone actually knows very much.

    My local weather on Thursday was very pleasant, sunny and quite warm, highs near 24 C. It's no heat dome but probably the most anomalous warmth since early July here. Ryder Cup weather for later today looks a bit on the cloudy side with rain arriving late, hopefully after the sessions are done, and departing early Saturday, the weekend looks fairly pleasant with moderate winds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 25 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 25 Sep to 1 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, often rather cool after this weekend's continuing 3-5 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfalls will average near normal with a few parts of the southeast possibly 25 per cent above normal after significant outbreaks of rain on Sunday and Tuesday, and a few more showers later.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values in a rather cloudy regime.

    -- Winds generally moderate southwest to west throughout.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be rather misty and in some places drizzly at first, with some brighter intervals developing at least in the southern and eastern regions by mid-day and afternoon, with winds west-southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 21 C.

    TONIGHT will continue very mild with occasional light rain, lows near 14 C.

    SUNDAY will bring some heavy showers and isolated squally showers or thunderstorms with hail, clearing from the west during the afternoon and turning colder there. Highs 15 to 18 C, temperatures dropping to about 12-14 C later. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10 to 15 mm in some areas.

    MONDAY will be bright, cool with passing showers of rain and some with hail and thunder, winds west-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

    TUESDAY will bring intervals of rain turning rather heavy across the southeast during the afternoon, 15-30 mm amounts possible. Some gusty westerly winds will develop later in the day. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, some steady rain by evening and overnight in the north though, lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat milder again with occasional rain or drizzle, highs 15 to 17 C.

    The outlook into early October calls for rather cool weather to return for some time, and becoming quite windy at times possibly in association with remnants of Hurricane Sam (see next paragraph) ...

    Sam will probably be quite a strong hurricane but fortunately is swerving north in time to miss most of the island chain and tracking just east of Bermuda in a few days' time. Models now have Sam meandering around in eastern Canada for a while then its remnant low moving across the Atlantic and bringing gales to parts of Ulster and Scotland around 7th to 9th of October. Still lots of time for that to change. Yet another weak tropical storm has developed (not associated with remnants of Odette), Teresa is north of Bermuda and will merge with low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes region within two days.

    My local weather on Friday was sunny and very warm with a high near 26 C.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 26 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 26 Sep to 2 Oct 2021

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values after a warm start today, several days will average 1-3 deg below normal but it may recover to more average values.

    -- Rainfalls of 25 to 50 per cent above normal are possible with several storms due later in the week.

    -- Sunshine will amount to 50 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds occasionally quite strong from the southwest, generally moderate.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring some heavy showers and isolated squally showers or thunderstorms with hail, developing gradually this morning and reaching the east by mid-day to early afternoon, then clearing from the west during the afternoon and turning colder there. Highs 15 to 18 C, except near 20 C in some parts of Leinster, then temperatures dropping to about 12-14 C later. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10 to 15 mm in some areas.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and breezy with passing showers, lows 7 to 9 C.

    MONDAY will be bright, cool with passing showers of rain and some with hail and thunder, winds west-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

    TUESDAY will bring intervals of rain turning rather heavy across the southeast during the afternoon, 15-30 mm amounts possible. Some gusty westerly winds will develop later in the day. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, some steady rain by evening and overnight in the north though, lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat milder again with occasional rain or drizzle, highs 15 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY (2nd October) could turn very windy with heavy rainfalls, a storm is depicted on some guidance and we will be watching developments as this comes into a more reliable time frame. This will not be "Sam" which is due to pass south of Newfoundland at about this time, remnants of Sam may cause another significant wind and rain event around Tuesday 5th or Wednesday 6th. But the flow gets very "busy" after the Saturday event and a third low is set to track near the south coast between these two events on Sunday night and Monday morning.

    Sam is currently quite a strong hurricane in the cat-4 range beginning to move north-northwest to avoid any direct impacts on the Caribbean islands but it could come rather close to Bermuda in a few days' time.

    My local weather has remained sunny and very warm with highs on Saturday near 26 C. They will probably have a very similar day to that (with a bit more high cloud probably) for the final stages of the Ryder Cup near Lake Michigan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 27 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 27 Sep to 3 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values or slightly below.

    -- Rainfalls will average about 25 per cent above normal.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

    -- Most of the interval will have moderate southwest to west winds, occasionally stronger gusts with frontal passages.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some becoming heavy later on with thunder and hail possible. Winds southwest to west at around 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 13 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will have a few partly cloudy to clear intervals at first, then overcast with rain arriving in parts of the southwest towards dawn. Lows will be 5 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY will have frequent intervals of rain with 10-20 mm accumulations, probably heaviest in the south and east. A few thundery showers could be embedded in a frontal passage around early to mid afternoon. Winds southerly veering more westerly with the front, could be strong at times near south coast and parts of the west coast. Highs 13 to 15 C. Some fog is likely over higher ground in the north in the morning to mid-day hours.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, staying rather cool, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C. Moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

    THURSDAY will be overcast and a little milder with outbreaks of light to moderate rain, 5 to 10 mm likely, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

    FRIDAY will be windy with passing showers and risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C. About 10 mm of rain likely.

    The WEEKEND and first part of the following week (2 to 5 Oct) will be rather cold with partly cloudy skies and some chance of showers. Eventually this will break down to more windy and unsettled conditions later in the week, but remnants of Sam are perhaps less likely to be a factor although at this time range guidance cannot be all that trusted on details, but Sam is now shown taking quite a bit of time to get disentangled with its close approach to eastern Newfoundland where it's now shown looping around and getting quite weak before rejoining a steady stream of other disturbances in the jet stream where it may be absorbed into another low long before reaching Europe.

    The first part of Sam's history is still looking about the same, quite strong at present but no direct threat to Caribbean islands, but then including a close brush with Bermuda by about Saturday 2nd, and Newfoundland by Monday 4th October. Some other tropical threats are being watched but not expected to be overly severe if they do happen at all.

    My local weather on Sunday marked the end of a long fine spell with increasing cloud and a bit of drizzle by late afternoon, highs near 19 C. It looks like more sustained rainfalls here over the next two days and cooler temperatures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 28 September, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

    Blog format for a change today, as trends are settling into a very typical rut for late September into early October, a time of year when the Atlantic often begins to dominate the weather more frequently.

    Today's frontal system appears to have lost some of its energy and will not be as strong over Ireland as earlier expected, while developing a separate low pressure area near southwest England that will bring heavier rain into western Britain. So for Ireland, would expect some rain at times with 5-10 mm amounts near the west coast, but reduced now to 3-7 mm further east, with some brighter intervals at times, highs around 15 C. Winds will be moderate southwest to west in the 40-60 km/hr range mostly.

    Tonight will likely stay rather unsettled and cool with a few showers at times, lows around 5 to 7 C.

    Wednesday will have some partly cloudy intervals and only isolated showers until later in the day when a fairly strong Atlantic disturbance approaches the northwest coastal regions. Winds will increase to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed coastal areas by evening, and overnight rainfalls of 10-20 mm are likely in the west and north, still not all that much expected in the south and east from this one either. Highs on Wednesday about 14 C.

    Thursday will see the wind and rain easing for parts of the day but then it could pick up again later on with a second frontal wave, and another 5 to 15 mm of rain could fall in some areas of the west and north. Lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C on Thursday.

    Friday will be windy with showers, a few with hail or thunder, and gusts to 80 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

    Saturday could see a continuation of this rather unsettled weather but with slow improvements later in the day, and similar temperatures ( 7 to 13 degrees ).

    By Sunday and Monday cooler air will be fighting with various Atlantic disturbances, I don't totally trust the guidance at this stage because of uncertainty about Sam's longer term evolution. So let's say it will likely be cooler than average and increasingly likely to rain going forward into the week of the 4th to 8th of October. Remnants of Sam could be in the vicinity doing one of two things, either helping mild southwest winds get stronger, or pushing closer and creating wind and rain in the immediate region by mid-week.

    Sam is still way down by the northern end of the Caribbean island chain and not all that close to land, and looks now like it might be just far enough east of Bermuda to avoid much impact there too, which is good since Sam is going to be a major hurricane until it passes north of Bermuda's latitude. Then it's supposed to have some sort of adventure near Newfoundland and Labrador, still looking like that might take a lot of the steam out of Sam before it eventually heads east along with other more ordinary lows. Two tag along tropical systems have formed in the wake of Sam over the tropical Atlantic and these could each produce a storm fairly soon.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and rather warm at first, then turned cooler when rain began to fall in the afternoon. It was mostly rather light rain and we had perhaps 3-5 mm, with temperatures sliding down from near 20 C to near 14 C now. There's a bit more rain for today and then a dry but cooler week ahead here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 29 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 29 Sep to 5 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.

    -- Rainfall will be rather heavy in some parts of west Ulster and north Connacht, with 50 per cent above normal possible from frequent downpours, but other regions will either be closer to normal or a little below normal in some "rainshadow" areas further east.

    -- Sunshine will be only about 50 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds will vary from moderate to strong at times, often from a southwest to west direction.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with a sprinkling of rather light showers at first, but heavy showers and areas of heavy rainfall will move in during the evening, as winds freshen considerably. Highs 13 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will be cloudy and windy with 20-40 mm rainfalls possible near the west coast especially over hilly terrain, more like 10-20 mm generally in other regions. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed locations. Some moderation of these conditions may follow towards morning. Lows could be around 5 to 8 C in the east before more cloud spreads in, but otherwise temperatures steady around 11 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, then overcast and windy with squally showers and another 10-15 mm rain likely. Highs 13 to 17 C. Winds by evening and overnight southwest 60 to 100 km/hr in exposed locations.

    FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of light rain, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

    SATURDAY will continue overcast and rather wet at times with gusty southwest to west winds developing, the situation is evolving and exact track of a fast-moving low will determine which regions may require wind alerts, most likely the south coast. Temperatures steady 12 to 14 C.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy again with showers more isolated in west to northwest winds, cooler with highs only 10 to 13 C.

    MONDAY will also be rather cool and partly cloudy with highs near 14 C.

    The rest of next week looks rather unsettled and milder in a developing southwest flow that could see remnants of Sam interacting with potential new tropical storm or hurricane (probably "Victor" although if something else gets a name first, then Wanda) which right now is trailing Sam by about 1,500 miles in the tropical Atlantic. The distance between them may slowly decrease once Sam slows down while interacting with low pressure near Newfoundland. At some point around midweek Sam's dying circulation south of Iceland could pull in the energy from still-tropical Victor (or Wanda) near the Azores and this situation will need a close watch as details are bound to be somewhat different from today's maps (for Friday 8th October which is ten days away yet). But those maps suggest that the wind circulation around Victor (or Wanda) could be energized by this complex development just around the time it is passing close to Ireland, so worth keeping in mind that there could be some impactful weather events late next week (as well as all this rather significant weather before then). Another tropical wave between Sam and potential Victor is looking rather weak now and could max out as only a tropical depression with a number but no name possibly, its problem being that the system to its east has much better conditions for development and may absorb this other one eventually.

    The entire collection of these disturbances threatens to bring some heavy to excessive rainfalls to some parts of northwestern Ireland over the time scale of a week to ten days, I've seen model forecasts of up to 100-120 mm of rain over that period (perhaps not all that unusual as the peak of the autumn rains are usually in November). This is somewhat speculative at this time range however.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few showers and cool with highs reaching about 13 C. We are expecting a slow clearing trend by tomorrow (later today in your time frame) here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 30 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 30 Sep to 6 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, quite warm at times late in the period.

    -- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the west and north, to near normal elsewhere.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds will be moderate to strong at times.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals possible in Munster and south Leinster. Outbreaks of light rain or drizzle here and there will not produce much accumulation until heavier rain develops in the west and spreads to central and northern counties by evening. Winds moderate southwest 40-60 km/hr increasing by late afternoon to 50-80 km/hr near exposed coasts. Highs 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will be windy with an interval of moderate to heavy rain, 15-30 mm can be expected, heavier amounts in west Ulster and north Connacht, also Connemara and locally near hills elsewhere. Winds southwest veering westerly 60 to 90 km/hr at times. Lows near 10 C.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy with passing showers, some with thunder and hail. Highs near 14 C. Moderate westerly winds at times.

    SATURDAY will bring variable cloud and some outbreaks of rain, but a stronger disturbance off to the south will head into Britain and only some minor effects of that are expected in Leinster during the afternoon. Overall, 5 to 15 mm of rain possible, and temperatures steady around 13 C.

    SUNDAY will become quite breezy to windy at times (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr) with occasional showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will see this unsettled weather finally winding down with increasing chances of dry spells and glimpses of sunshine between less frequent showers, in west to northwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs both days around 12 C. Overnight lows near 6 C.

    By WEDNESDAY there could be a break altogether in the moisture conveyor belt, and somewhat warmer temperatures around 15 or 16 C, then by THURSDAY quite mild with increasing cloud and rain by afternoon or evening, stronger southwest winds returning, highs near 18 C.

    The effects of Sam and what has now been confirmed as Victor would then be felt around Friday (8th Oct) and perhaps for several days thereafter as the circulation of Sam begins to spin around to the north of Ireland and perhaps might attempt to push in below a developing blocking high over Scandinavia rather than taking the far northern route around it. Victor now seems to have little potential to remain intact long enough to be a very imposing player when it is drawn into Sam's circulation and there's another low heading into the same general zone north of the Azores that might replace Victor as the actual source of any wind or rainfall energy near Ireland by that time of merger of systems. Backing up a bit, Sam is now a cat-4 hurricane on a strengthening cycle, fortunately it missed the northern Leeward Islands by almost 500 miles and will probably miss Bermuda and Newfoundland too on latest guidance. It will be rapidly weakening by the time it comes into view of western Europe. Plenty of time for these details to change somewhat however.

    As one might guess from those details about next week, October in general is shaping up to be a rather mild and wet month.

    My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a few glimpses of sunshine, dry most of the day but one or two brief showers, and cool with the high only about 12 C.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 1 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal.

    -- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal in some parts of the west and north, closer to average or a little below in south and east.

    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds mostly moderate south to southwest, occasionally strong southwest to west.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, more frequent in the east this morning. Scattered showers will bring only about 2-5 mm of rain to most places during the day, heavier rain could set in by evening for a time. Highs 12 to 15 C. Winds backing to southerly and increasing to 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near south coast.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with intervals of rain, and some strong wind gusts near the south coast mainly, with lows around 7 C. A further 5-8 mm of rain is likely overnight.

    SATURDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, some brief outbreaks of heavy rain with local thunder and hail, but also some brighter spells. Winds may become strong west to northwest along Atlantic coasts by late in the day. Highs 13 to 16 C. A much stormier outcome is expected over in southern England as low pressure heads there during the day with some locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

    MONDAY will start with an interval of rather blustery winds and squally showers, with partial clearing to follow as winds veer from southwest to west at around 50 to 80 km/hr at times. Lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.

    TUESDAY will see gradual improvement as a ridge of high pressure builds in, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at first but sunny intervals will be more frequent by afternoon, and showers will die out, as will the blustery winds. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and a chance of rain in west and north mainly, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy with outbreaks of light rain and staying quite mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

    The latest on Sam and Victor ... Victor now seems like he can't keep up to big brother Sam and will miss the chance to transfer energy into Sam's trailing cold fronts, which now look even less energized overall and could stay near or even off to the north of Ulster. This will allow the very mild southwest flow promoted by Sam's trajectory to continue for several more days. What's left of Victor by the end of next week is now expected to die out near the middle of the Atlantic or transfer some energy into the next low following on behind Sam. The main theme of this period will perhaps not be stormy weather of any kind but very mild temperatures.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with dry conditions to mid-afternoon then some light rain, and a high near 14 C.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 2 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal, with an increasing trend from slightly below normal at first to 4-6 above normal by end.

    -- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal in some parts of the west and north, closer to average to as little as 50 per cent of normal values in the south and east.

    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds mostly moderate south to southwest, occasionally strong southwest to west.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, some brief outbreaks of heavy rain with local thunder and hail, spreading into east Ulster, midlands and north Leinster this morning, but then followed by some brighter spells. More isolated but still possibly heavy showers will track through regions further south. Winds may become strong west to northwest along Atlantic coasts by late in the day. Highs 13 to 16 C. A much stormier outcome is expected over in southern England as low pressure heads there during the day with some locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds.

    TONIGHT will become quite breezy with outbreaks of moderate rain developing in west to northwest winds of 50 to 70 km/hr, and temperatures will be steady around 8 to 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers sometimes merging into longer intervals of light rain, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr backing late in the day to south-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr with some potential for higher gusts near south coast, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C. About 15-25 mm of rain is expected in total this weekend in many areas, although rainshadow locations further east may only see 2 to 5 mm outcomes.

    MONDAY will start with an interval of rather blustery winds and squally showers, with partial clearing to follow as winds veer from southwest to west at around 50 to 80 km/hr at times. Lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.

    TUESDAY will see gradual improvement as a ridge of high pressure builds in, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at first but sunny intervals will be more frequent by afternoon, and showers will die out, as will the blustery winds. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY will bring sunshine in some parts of the east, midlands and south, followed by increasing cloud and a chance of rain in west and north mainly, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy with outbreaks of light rain and staying quite mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C west, 21 C east.

    With Sam's dying circulation then somewhere east of Iceland, and high pressure extending west from north-central Europe, the weather may remain rather tranquil with any rain held near or even off the west coast for several days, and mild temperatures persisting well into the following week (highs 16 to 20 C). Victor appears too weak to catch up to any part of Sam's long trailing cold fronts but ripples of energy from the southwest will eventually turn into stronger lows that will turn things more unsettled by mid-month, with the chance of some strong winds and heavy rainfalls by then.

    My local weather on Friday was very pleasant, mostly sunny, high near 17 C, with a few billowing cumulus clouds over nearby hills. We are enjoying the peak stages of the autumn colour change locally. Out for a walk earlier, and it was clear and feeling frosty with very good views of stars and planets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 3 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 2.5 deg above normal, with an increasing trend from slightly below normal at first to 4-6 above normal by end.

    -- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal in some parts of the west and north, closer to average to as little as 50 per cent of normal values in the south and east.

    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Winds mostly moderate south to southwest, occasionally strong southwest to west.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers sometimes merging into longer intervals of light rain, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr backing late in the day to south-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr with some potential for higher gusts near south coast, and highs near 13 C. About 5-10 mm further rainfalls are expected today, although some "rainshadow" locations further east may only see 1 to 3 mm.

    TONIGHT will be rather windy and cool with occasional rain, winds southwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 7 to 9 C.

    MONDAY will start with an interval of rather blustery winds and squally showers, with partial clearing to follow in some parts of the west and north, although heavy showers may continue across the south coast and in parts of Leinster, with winds gradually veering from southwest to west at around 50 to 80 km/hr at times, highs near 13 C.

    TUESDAY will see gradual improvement as a ridge of high pressure builds in, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at first but sunny intervals will be more frequent by afternoon, and showers will die out, as will the blustery winds. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Some rain now appears likely to brush into western coastal areas during the day.

    THURSDAY will bring sunshine in some parts of the east, midlands and south, followed by increasing cloud and further outbreaks of rain in west and north mainly, sometimes spreading a bit further east, with lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy with outbreaks of light rain and staying quite mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C west, 21 C east.

    By the weekend of the 9th-10th, higher pressure will be developing and skies could be clear at times with patchy low cloud and some morning fog or mist patches, quite mild with highs 16 to 21 C. This high shows signs of strengthening over Ireland during the week which could lead to a prolonged interval of fine, dry weather although prone to longer spells of fog in some areas, but eventually this would be likely to give way to either a renewed blast of Atlantic driven wind and rain or even a colder turn from a northerly source (at this time range model suggestions of cold outbreaks are often just downgraded later by shunting the main path of the cold further east though).

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with spotty light rain in the afternoon but quite mild at around 18 C. Meanwhile Hurricane Sam, slowly losing intensity but gaining in terms of its areal extent, is moving northeast well to the south of Newfoundland and will just miss the island by a few hundred miles when it becomes extratropical around Monday night. From there it heads northeast into the far northern Atlantic and loops around near Iceland. The rain in the forecast from mid-week to Friday is from a long trailing cold front that Sam is expected to produce, but this feature becomes very weak once the high pressure mentioned begins to push into it from the southeast. Victor never made it to hurricane status and has been declared a dying tropical depression, although traces of it continue to push north for several days, and it makes a weak connection to the frontal system before being totally eliminated from the maps around Thursday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 4 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS continue similar, warming temperatures later in the week and rather wet at times in the west, not so much rain expected in the east and, after today's moderate rainfall, in the south either. Some sunshine at times but probably not reaching normal values, and winds generally moderate in strength and often from a south to southwest direction. Lighter winds are expected by the weekend however.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy at first with widely scattered showers, one or two likely to be thundery (west Ulster most likely at first). By afternoon, a low will form over Munster, rather weak at first, bringing outbreaks of light to moderate rain across the south mainly to the south of a Galway to Dublin line, and 5 to 10 mm is expected from this, perhaps 15 mm locally around Limerick and south Tipperary. Winds will become light and variable during this low's early stages. Highs around 14 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will become rather windy again as the low moves towards Wales and begins to intensify. This will bring some gusty winds and heavy thundery showers to southern England overnight. But for Ireland the outcome will be fairly bland with a few bands of showers drawn in from the Atlantic, separated by partly cloudy dry slots, and low temperatures in the range of 4 to 7 C. Winds west-northwest 40 to 70 km/hr at times.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers, again more likely close to the west coast. Winds west to northwest at about 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become overcast in parts of the south and west and there could be some outbreaks of light rain but the east and north are likely to remain partly cloudy turning very mild, morning lows 7 to 10 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY, some bursts of heavy rain are possible near Atlantic coasts as a front associated with distant extratropical Sam (west of Iceland) brushes up against the coast, but will be prevented from making much progress inland by a push of higher pressure from the east. The net result will be quite mild and at times hazy sunshine may break through widespread higher cloud layers, with temperatures perhaps close to 20 degrees away from coasts in a southeast to southerly breeze both days. About 20-40 mm of rain could fall in a few spots like higher parts of Kerry, Connemara and west Ulster. Even so, it may remain almost dry in most of central and eastern Ireland.

    The weekend of 9th-10th is looking pleasant as high pressure builds up over Ireland leading to some mist or fog lingering into the mid-morning hours in places, but potential for longer sunny spells to develop, temperatures remaining quite mild 18-21 C.

    This warm and dry spell may persist for several days, guidance keeps changing in details beyond middle of next week, not surprisingly at that time range, but there are some signs this high will have nowhere to go between troughs in the central Atlantic and eastern Europe, so it may become a dominant feature for a while.

    My local weather turned a bit warmer with sunny skies and highs near 19 C on Sunday. We are expecting two more quite warm days then a slight cooling trend mid-week. Hurricane Sam, meanwhile, is now off to the south of eastern Newfoundland and is quite a strong storm for the latitude (now crossing 40 deg N at 50 deg W) ... it will stay hurricane strength even into its extratropical stages but will eventually weaken when it moves up between Iceland and Greenland by about Friday. Victor meanwhile is just about an extinct weather system now. That's not going to prevent some moisture from heading northeast from its general surroundings, and when Sam does get into the subarctic region, another strong low of non-tropical characteristics will form in the central Atlantic out of the remnants of weak low pressure currently moving through the northeastern United States. That will also head north towards Iceland eventually.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 5 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values with the warmest readings Friday to Sunday.

    -- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the coastal portions of the west, but much less even a few miles inland, trending down to only about 10 to 25 per cent of normal in most of Leinster and east Munster. The heavier rain will occur around Thursday and Friday.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal values or perhaps slightly above in some parts of the east, to about half of normal in the cloudier west.

    -- Winds will slowly diminish from moderate to light as high pressure takes hold on the weekend.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy, quite breezy at times with isolated showers, most likely close to the west coast. Winds west to northwest at about 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C. There may be fairly generous amounts of sunshine in some eastern counties.

    TONIGHT will start out clear and cool in parts of the east and north while cloud will spread in rapidly across the south and west. Lowest temperatures could be during the evening with a warming trend after midnight, but lows in many areas of the south and west will be close to 10 C while they could fall to 5 C and start rising in the east and north.

    WEDNESDAY will become overcast in parts of the south and west and there could be some outbreaks of light rain but the east and north are likely to remain partly cloudy turning very mild, morning lows 7 to 10 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY, some bursts of heavy rain are possible near Atlantic coasts as a front associated with distant extratropical Sam (west of Iceland) brushes up against the coast, but will be prevented from making much progress inland by a push of higher pressure from the east. The net result will be quite mild and at times hazy sunshine may break through widespread higher cloud layers, with temperatures perhaps close to 20 degrees away from coasts in a southeast to southerly breeze both days. About 20-40 mm of rain could fall in a few spots like higher parts of Kerry, Connemara and west Ulster. Even so, it may remain almost dry in most of central and eastern Ireland with some hazy sunshine both days despite considerable amounts of higher cloud. The west coast rain may be confined to just a few areas as the guidance suggests the main axis of heavy rain will be just off the coast except for outer headlands of Kerry, then into Connemara and across western Mayo into northwest Donegal. These few areas could see some heavy stream flows but not very far east, rainfalls could be considerably lower even in much of Clare, Limerick and Cork.

    By SATURDAY high pressure will be more in control and the rain will end, skies will tend to remain partly to mostly cloudy in the west but with some sunny intervals, and it could be sunny for much of the day further east, with highs 18 to 21 C. SUNDAY looks almost the same but with a slight northwesterly flow setting in as the high drifts a bit further west, it may be closer to 16 C. MONDAY will have a more pronounced cooler component so that highs could be around 14 C. Nights may get rather cool in this spell with dense fog possible and lows perhaps into the frost zone for inland counties. However, the high looks like it would then ripple back across Ireland from the west cutting off the colder northerly breezes and returning temperatures to the high teens (16 to 19 C range) by mid-week. Eventually the high will sink further south and allow a mild southwesterly flow to develop with occasional rainfalls returning to the mix.

    My local weather on Monday was mild with a veil of higher cloud sometimes breaking slightly to allow weak sunshine, and highs reached about 17 with light winds. We expect to remain in this warmer air mass today with a weak frontal passage and small amounts of rain due mid-week then about a week of dry weather which is always a bonus at this time of year.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 6 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    The trends remain the same as discussed yesterday, temperatures slowly climbing to above normal values around Thursday to Saturday then falling back to more average readings by Sunday to about Tuesday. Rain will be frequent the next few days in western counties and locally heavy, more sporadic in east Ulster, the midlands and parts of central to western Munster, and more infrequent further east, although some is expected today and again later Friday. Sunshine will be a little more generous than in recent weeks, at least over Leinster and parts of the midlands. Wind speeds will generally drop back to the light category.

    TODAY will become mostly cloudy but with a few brighter intervals in the east. Some rain at times, this spreading north and becoming somewhat heavier when it reaches Connacht and west to central Ulster where 5-15 mm could fall. Becoming milder, highs 15 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with some mist or fog, light rain at times, and very mild, lows 12 to 15 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy in the east to overcast in the west, where pulses of heavy rain (15-30 mm) could affect Kerry, Connemara, parts of Mayo and Donegal. Some of the rain will try to move further east at times but will weaken when it does so. Largely dry further east, and generally quite warm with highs 18 to 21 C.

    FRIDAY the rain may have somewhat more success moving further east as a weak front develops and drifts to the east coast by late in the day. Amounts of 15-30 mm will once again occur in western counties, but less is likely to fall as the rain bands weaken gradually moving east. Mild with lows 12 to 15 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

    SATURDAY most of the remnant showers will be pushed north and west to leave a dry pattern with some sunshine, highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will see some sunshine each day but slightly cooler temperatures, near 17 C west and south, 14 C north and east. Nights could become chilly in this phase as high pressure builds up over Ireland, fog may become widespread and dense in the morning hours in some inland low-lying areas. This spell of settled weather could last for a while before yielding to more active progressions of Atlantic frontal systems, staying rather mild well into the second half of the month however.

    My local weather on Tuesday was very pleasant, some higher cloud occasionally breaking to partly cloudy skies, and warm with highs near 20 C. A weak front is moving in overnight and we may see a bit of drizzle and cooler temperatures for a day then back to sunny skies. Even warmer temperatures were noted east of the Rockies on Tuesday with some locations in the eastern prairies as high as 32 C setting daily records.

    The remnant low of Sam is now southwest of Iceland and about to make a loop in the East Greenland Sea. It has been replaced off the east coast by another strong low that had no tropical history but formed out of a much weaker system that arrived from the Great Lakes region. That low will continue to pump up moisture through a long frontal system edging into western Ireland, hence the locally heavy rainfalls there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 7 October, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Oct --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values, warmest from today to Saturday, then closer to average although warming again by mid-week.

    -- Rainfalls could exceed normal values in a few parts of the west, otherwise, will amount to only 25 per cent of normal in other regions.

    -- Sunshine will be near normal and could reach 25 per cent above normal in the east with the brightest part of this weekly interval coming towards the middle and end.

    -- Winds will drop back to rather light values, occasionally back to moderate by about Monday but another spell of light winds will then develop.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY will be unseasonably warm in most areas, with highs 18 to 21 C. A few brighter intervals could develop over Leinster and east Munster. Pulses of heavy rain will continue to feed up from the southwest clipping some parts of the west coast, most notably Connemara where some locally heavy amounts are possible (30-40 mm). Some parts of Kerry and Donegal, Mayo could also see fairly significant rainfalls, but amounts will rapidly drop off around Galway (city) and further east.

    TONIGHT will be cloudy and mild with some rain at times in the west, lows 13 to 15 C.

    FRIDAY will see the rain edging a bit further east at times, but there could also be a general weakening trend as it does so, with 10-15 mm further amounts possible in some western counties, 5-10 mm further east and later in the day. Warm again with highs 18 to 21 C.

    SATURDAY will bring an end to the western rainfall as the front begins to disintegrate early in the day, leaving a mix of cloud and sun, but continued rather warm temperatures with lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY, the wind will turn a little more northwesterly and allow for a slight cooling, highs will be in the 13 to 17 C range (warmest now in west Munster) and morning lows will be at least a few degrees cooler (5 to 8 C) and locally could be even lower, with dense fog and ground frosts possible. This will be a generally pleasant spell of weather nevertheless, and after the northwest flow is cut off due to the high returning a bit further east, the rest of next week could turn milder again, possibly back into the 15 to 18 C range with milder nights likely too. It looks like a week to ten days before this mild and dry interval breaks down and then only to a more unsettled but still quite mild south to southwest flow.

    My local weather on Wednesday was a bit cooler with passing clouds and sprinkles of hail as it was quite cold aloft. We drove through some nearby mountains and noticed small amounts of snow had fallen near their summits (above 2,000 m) but it was around 8 C in the mountain passes and around 16 C in the valleys. An odd thing you might not expect to encounter was dense smoke as forestry companies are burning off "slash" (waste wood from logging) which they tend to do in the autumn and early winter when there's no danger of the fires spreading.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I don't know what's going on with Boards recently, the above appears to have unposted itself after I posted it around 0600h Thursday. I have a very specific memory of posting it because I block copied it for subsequent use on IWO, a facebook page, and I recall that when I clicked on the blue box (not the white box) the material was then off the screen and I had to scroll up to find it. This is perhaps the third time this has happened since the change was made. There is no reason why I would click on save draft since this is not a draft. Just testing this out and returning in ten minutes to see if this posted comment remains a posted comment or goes back to being unposted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hoping the program does better today ...

    Friday, 8 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS remain similar, warm for a few days, then closer to average with a slight return to warmer than average later next week. Some substantial rainfalls today then mostly dry. An improvement in sunshine can be expected. Winds becoming rather light at times.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy, warm and humid with outbreaks of rain, becoming heavier by afternoon in some western and also central counties where up to 20 mm could fall. All areas are likely to see at least 5 mm. Highs 18 to 21 C.

    TONIGHT will become rather foggy or misty with occasional light rain continuing, mild with lows 12 to 16 C.

    SATURDAY morning, cloud will linger in some areas, especially the north, and a bit more rain is likely. Eventually some sunshine will begin to break through and the rain will move off to the north and east. Highs 16 to 19 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will be partly cloudy to clear, with some generous sunshine amounts in some parts of the south and east, but slightly cooler due to a light northwest wind (becoming moderate in Ulster). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

    By TUESDAY somewhat milder again as the northwest breeze is cut off and replaced by light and variable winds to a gentle southerly flow in western counties. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 18 C.

    This milder weather could persist for several more days and if anything it could turn slightly warmer again.

    My local weather started out with a mixture of rain and wet snow leaving a brief accumulation on grassy surfaces at my elevation (nothing fell below about 700 m asl). Later on it became partly cloudy to clear by evening. Highs reached about 10 C once the sun got past the cloud deck, but it was only 2 or 3 C at 0900h.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just for the record I see these last two posts in the thread and not unposted. Will see what their status is later today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 9 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal as the heavier rainfall recently peters out today, not likely to return in any significant amount for most of this week.

    -- Sunshine could eventually reach a normal amount in many areas but there is some concern that the high pressure due to dominate the week could contain considerable low cloud, so it may be somewhat hit or miss as to what places see the most sunshine.

    -- Winds are going to return to the light or even calm categories, not great news if you're trying to generate electricity that way.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy at first with the rain slowly fragmenting to showers and ending with just drizzle around mid-day in parts of the east. The west will brighten up first and some long sunny intervals could show up in parts of the inland central to southern counties. Highs 15 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will have patchy low cloud, fog developing after midnight in places, especially inland low-lying districts. Lows 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY any low cloud or fog may be rather slow to dissipate in a few spots but the sun should win out at least from time to time, with very light winds expected. A bit cooler for the eastern half of the country perhaps, but highs still in the 14 to 17 C range.

    MONDAY will continue similar with low cloud and fog at first, morning lows 3 to 7 C, some sunny intervals developing, and mild daytime highs of about 14 to 17 C.

    The rest of the week looks quite mild for mid-October, with light southeast winds developing. There could be considerable low cloud and fog each morning after some clear skies from afternoon to late evening. Highs each day about 12 to 16 C and morning lows about 3 to 6 C, although isolated frost cannot be ruled out in the central counties. This dry spell (other than fog or dew) will gradually break down around Friday or Saturday, possibly not until late Saturday according to some guidance, with just sporadic outbreaks of light rain at times in the following week as the high does not totally disappear from the weather mix, although with a stronger southerly flow at times and weak fronts trying to push as far east as Britain but encountering resistance by the time they reach the eastern half of Ireland.

    My local weather on Friday started out cloudy and cold with a few snowflakes drifting by, then it cleared by mid-day and stayed mostly sunny for the afternoon with a high near 9 C. There's likely a sharp frost already forming as it has stayed clear and felt like about 2 C at sunset. We are still seeing the odd bear around so they don't expect winter to start for a while (I am not ruling out any reliable guidance at this point).

    Is the tropical storm season over? There are few signs of any major developments but probably one or two more named storms are yet to come.

    The count for this season so far is 20 named storms, 7 became hurricanes and of those, 4 became major hurricanes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 10 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will be sparse, in fact it could be zero for some parts of the south and east.

    -- Sunshine may creep up to values near or above normal in places but for a week dominated by high pressure, there could still be some cloud around partly due to lingering fog turning to low cloud in some parts.

    -- Winds will be very light for several days and will slowly pick up to the low end of the moderate range by end of the interval, becoming southeast once the calm period ends.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will feature some sunny intervals with cloudy intervals probably more frequent in the northwest. Light winds, highs 13 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will have some intervals of clear skies, followed by a gradual increase in cloud then fog before sunrise and lows 2 to 6 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with light winds, and once the chilly fog dissipates, highs should reach 13 to 16 C again.

    From Monday night to about Friday, the pattern will be almost static with very similar weather each day, just a tendency for slightly stronger breezes to develop in the daytime hours from the southeast. Cloud cover will be hard to predict since there will likely be disorganized areas of clear sky and patchy low cloud drifting slowly, but on the whole most places should have bright spells each day and a few locations could have longer sunny intervals -- this is likely to follow climatology so coastal south and southeast could do quite well as long as the breeze doesn't blow in some distant sea fog. The highs each day during the week will likely fall into a range of about 14 to 17 C, and overnight lows could include a few slight frosts in the usual inland spots, while averaging near 5 C around coasts and more hilly terrain.

    This calm and dry spell will break down quite slowly around next weekend into the first part of the following week but eventually the winds should increase from a south to southwest direction and at least some weak Atlantic systems will return to the mix, however, it will tend to stay relatively dry for time of year even when the strongest parts of this blocking high have moved on.

    My local weather on Saturday was rather cloudy after a slight frost with the overnight low reported as -2 C, and with some sunny spells after mid-day the high rose to around 14 C. Despite rather light winds we are seeing a steady leaf fall and are a bit past the peak of our autumn colour, but it is still quite a good display. Bears are back in town after cleaning out the orchards lower down in the valley, but they are probably just passing through on their way to finding winter dens before snow covers the high country. There is still a trace of the earlier snow visible on rocky parts of the nearby hills but not enough to prevent them from doing whatever they want up there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 11 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS remain the same, near normal temperatures and quite dry with more sunshine than some recent times, and very light winds.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become partly cloudy to sunny with any fog dissipating soon, and with light winds it will feel pleasant by mid-day and afternoon with highs around 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will start out clear and some fog or mist will develop, cool with chance of isolated ground frosts, lows 1 to 6 C.

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue very similar to today with light winds and morning fog or mist, isolated patchy frosts, and daytime sunny spells with a similar temperature range, lows about 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C. The southeast breeze will pick up slightly after tomorrow.

    FRIDAY some light rain may develop in parts of Ulster and north Leinster as a cooler air mass tries to push in, but its effects may be limited to that part of Ireland with more cloud spreading further south at times, temperatures will range from 8-11 C in the north and northeast, to about 14 C in the south and west.

    By SATURDAY, back to partly cloudy skies and light winds as the high rebuilds for a day or so, highs near 14 C, then cloudy with a few showers by SUNDAY and highs 13 to 16 C.

    The following week will be mild with moderate south to southwest winds developing, some rain at times, and temperatures much milder at night due to the cloud cover although staying in this week's range for daytime readings, so expect lows 8-12 C and highs 12-16 C. This mild pattern may dominate for the rest of the month although guidance always wants to show variations after ten days or so, that may not necessarily be reliable.

    My local weather was cool and partly cloudy to sunny with brisk west to northwest breezes at times, a morning frost and afternoon highs near 13 degrees.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 12 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS -- Generally dry until the weekend, then rainfalls will begin and some places could see 10-20 mm or more, cloud may be more frequent than clear skies despite high pressure close at hand, and winds very light then picking up to more moderate values.

    FORECASTS --

    TODAY to about THURSDAY afternoon will be rather bland in general with a fair amount of cloud but with any clear skies overnight temperatures could potentially fall lower than forecast values -- otherwise, expecting several nights with lows around 6 to 9 C, and days 14 to 17 C, with cloud sometimes breaking to reveal hazy sunshine. There will be some fog at times after midnight each night and it could persist until mid-morning in some inland valleys. Just a slight breeze from the southeast at times during the day and calm at night.

    By THURSDAY night into early FRIDAY, a weak cold front will move south and it could drop 2-5 mm of rain in parts of east Ulster and north to central Leinster, mostly before dawn Friday, after which the front will weaken even further and stall out becoming a stationary then a warm front in the vicinity of Ireland. Little further rain is expected from it during the day Friday, and skies may partially clear again. Temperatures will fall slightly in the north but remain similar to the mid-week values in the south.

    By SATURDAY, increasing cloud and a steady southeast wind, feeling rather raw if rain begins to fall as is likely near Atlantic coasts, but temperatures will not be much different, in the range of 8 to 15 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY could have intervals of rain or showers, with steady south to southwest winds in the 30-50 km/hr range, and temperatures steady also in the range of 10 to 15 C.

    The rest of next week looks very mild for mid-October and temperatures may be in the 12 to 16 C range much of the time, with a bit more rain expected. Beyond next week the regime looks broadly similar but perhaps a bit more active in terms of wind and rain as some stronger frontal systems develop, but most of the time winds will stay south to southwest bringing in more relatively mild air.

    My local weather on Monday was sunny with a high near 14 C after a frost in the early morning. An active storm system has formed over the southwestern states and is tracking towards the plains states bringing outbreaks of severe storms for the next two days in that region.

    I have had some time to consider the winter forecast, generally speaking, looking for a rather mild winter with average amounts of rainfall and perhaps a bit of colder weather at times in January mainly, so there will be chances for snow and below freezing temperatures then. Other parts of the winter will likely average above normal for temperatures. So if there's to be any active winter weather, I think it may come in mid to late January this winter, with the window of opportunity perhaps wider for Britain than Ireland. There will be some similarities with the winter of 2011-2012 when cold air and snow did make it into eastern England at times, but failed to reach western Britain or Ireland. Maybe the balance this winter will be a bit different and those weak efforts will prove a bit stronger.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 13 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Oct 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfalls will start up on the weekend and may reach 50 per cent of normal or a bit more in some western counties.

    -- Sunshine will be about 50 to 75 per cent of normal, due to persistent low cloud despite high pressure.

    -- Winds will be light for several more days then more moderate becoming strong at times near the end of this interval.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the south mainly, and any fog or mist should transform into low cloud later this morning. A slight southeast to south wind will begin to move the cloud by afternoon but large parts of it may persist anyway. Highs 13 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will be foggy or misty with a few widely separated clear spots that could lead to dense fog patches forming. Lows 5 to 9 C.

    THURSDAY will be overcast to partly cloudy at times, with morning fog or mist slowly clearing away, highs 13 to 17 C. Rain may arrive in east Ulster by late in the day.

    FRIDAY as a weak front moves south, a few outbreaks of light rain from north Leinster towards the southeast counties but this will be brief and amounts slight. Some western areas may remain dry except for fog and dew. Lows 4 to 7 C north, 8 to 11 C south. Highs 9 to 12 C north to about 15 C south and west.

    SATURDAY will bring outbreaks of rain, followed by partial clearing, and increasing south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy with occasional rain or showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely be rather windy and unsettled, temperatures around 14 C, with outbreaks of heavy rain possible. By mid-week temperatures may fall off slightly in strong westerly winds, showers could turn squally with hail and thunder in places. Highs mid-week around 10 to 12 C. It will then turn milder again with more Atlantic systems heading towards Ireland on a regular basis.

    My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and rather cool after a sharp frost, with highs around 10 C. It has clouded over since sunset. Pacific hurricane Pamela is heading into the southwestern U.S. from Baja California and will follow a low already moving out of the Rockies into the plains states. This will keep it quite warm in many parts of the central and eastern U.S., with locally heavy rainfalls near the frontal systems in central regions. All of this activity will be heading into the Atlantic later in the week and firing up the jet stream again.



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