China economic worries.

I don't know. Didn't Ireland have 118 billion in foreign liabilities in 2008. I'd assume china can handle this figure all on its own....

True. I suppose they may just cut it off and isolate it entirely. Hard to see where the contagion may lie within a psuedo communist but effectively somewhat capitalist system.

I'd be surprised if we don't see a global recession off the back of this. If we're lucky it won't be as bad as 2008 but the reality is, we only know of the $300 billion Evergrande are in debt and we have no idea how much of the rest of the Chinese property market is heavily leveraged in the same way. I'd say it's a lot worse than it appears on the surface. Remember that the Chinese property market makes up somewhere between 20-25% of their Economy.

Citizens don't really have investment options so property is how they invest and that is with the impression that the Chinese boom will continue indefinitely so buying a sub standard property for a price that is hugely inflated and waaaaaay over the average income purchasing power compared to western nations then we have a problem.

Then we get to other places that are exposed. Canada and Australia are two countries I would expect to be massively exposed to this, they're in serious trouble if the Chinese property market crashes. They may have weathered 2008 well, but that was because China did and their property markets are saturated with Chinese investment.

I'm unsure of EU/US exposure but I'd say it's not good.

Then we have the current run of speculative bubble in western markets. So many companies stocks went through the roof on pure speculation rather than delivered products. Just like the 1920's, everyone and their dog was buying shares (and now crypto) so I find it hard to see how the US markets in particular won't crash as people try to liquidate anything they have to prevent loss. Let's not forget governments are printing money and pumping it into economies to try and keep everything moving during the pandemic, this is not sustainable and in the long run could be the point where everything falls apart, currencies are going to get fucked and governments will then try to control cryptocurrencies which will be interesting to see how that plays out.

So yeah, I think we're headed for a crash. If we're lucky it won't be as bad as 2008 but the reality is we're in a perfect storm at the minute. For me, I'll hold onto my stocks/crypto. I haven't bet insane amounts of money in get quick rich schemes and as long as I have a steady income through this I'll probably average down on some of my investments.

You can't really isolate it. Investors are already turning their attention elsewhere naturally thinking this is the tip of the iceberg.

It depends on what banks these developers have their hands in the pockets of at the end of the day.

The west should be reasonably sheltered from an Asian banking crisis in the same way Asia was to a large extent sheltered in 2008.

The quickest way to lance the boil is to let those that are over leveraged and exposed all fail in a disorderly debt restructuring across the economy. No bailouts, no assistance and prosecutions where required.

This is the most painful way for everyone but it fixes the core problem with a fast adjustment and it sends a really big message to other funds, developers, banks for the future.

But, I'd expect political expediency to get in the way as usual and extend the pain.

Extend and pretend.

Another Chinese property company's shares plunged by 87% yesterday due to the unlikelihood of meeting its debt obligations, although its market cap was only 13.5 billion USD as of a few days ago. This could be the start of a domino effect across Chinese real estate companies. Hopefully not.

The Chinese property sector is one of the bug mysteries, how leveraged is it, how unsustainable, what do the accounts really say.

China will readily absorb this but are a slew of others lined up, lot of its people will be wiped out financially.

Will it be the thing that makes Western investors sweat and reduce investment in the country.

Evergrande has been ordered to demolish 39 blocks on their landmark development.

Also been downgraded and looking like bankruptcy soon.

The current leadership of the CPC doesn't care about people with money to invest.