Saturday

I'm on two horses today, and looking at odds for a third. All in Navan.

3.42 - Red Heel - 10/1 ew - 3 places 0.25

I think this is a poor enough race. The form for other horses is a bit wishy washy, and despite Red Heel drifting a little, you have to respect her performance on good ground this season. Her one poor race this year was over a shorter distance on muckier ground. The drift is telling me there's something I don't know about the horse, but if you based every bet on that you'd never get one on, and would be pouring cash away backing based on the too often equally-as-clueless-as-you market presence.

4.15 - Queen Amanirenas - 33/1 ew - 3 places 0.25

A long shot this one, but I've been kicking myself these past two days by not going with my gut on long shots. Similar to Red Heel, Queen's performances have to be adjusted based on ground, and doing that I have her a lot shorter than 33/1. The bookies did too, opening up at 16/1 (as far as I can tell.) Another case of maybe I should pay attention to the market, but again I have nothing on the inside with connections. I'm just a punter looking at the Racing Post. I think the jockey on her is decent as well, or has been doing OK recently (I'm new to watching flat racing so I don't know much about them.)

Horse I'm watching is Shoebox King. Again, it's horses for courses, or at least horses for going. It has to be significant that Navan, I think, are reporting GF in places. The 5f might be 1f too short for him, and that might be why he's out to 10/1, but I have a feeling I'll be closely looking at the machine and my bookies odds in the lead up.

What do you think of Arch Enemy in the 2.00?